Second market found to have Coronavirus

[ronki23]

This time it's in Beijing

Will this ever end

 

[Vouthon]

Will this ever end

Until we discover a safe and effective vaccine, alas no. We are fated to see continual epidemical outbreaks and flare-ups within the wider global pandemic, in tandem with future waves, because the virus is now at large and widely distributed in the human population. It won't entirely fade away.

The incidence of asymptomatic carriers and the fact that SARS-cov-2 can have a 12 day incubation period in many people, mean that it will keep spreading once lockdowns are fully eased without our knowing. Contact tracing will help to mitigate but only to mitigate, not suppress.

Moreover, there appears to be only short-term antibiotic immunity even for those who have had a bad dose of the virus already and recovered, of perhaps six months or at least under a year.

So, in the absence of a vaccine, I personally fear that COVID will become like smallpox once was: a perennial threat to the human population.

I even read one study which compared it with Dengue Fever, and if those particular findings are corroborated in subsequent research, then there could further complications.

See:

Yahoo is now a part of Verizon Media

Exacerbating harm

Cross protection is only half of the story. Viruses can also exacerbate the harm caused by one another. For example, HIV and measles directly attack the immune system, weakening the body’s defences and leaving a person vulnerable to other pathogens.

But there is also another, stranger pathway. Sometimes a previous infection with one viral strain can actively help a closely related strain to invade. Dengue virus is the most famous example. A person’s first infection with dengue is likely to be mild, but the second can be life-threatening. The dengue strain that causes the second infection can hitch a ride on the antibodies that were produced to clear the first, helping the second strain to enter cells and cause a more severe infection.

Similar processes could be in play for SARS-CoV-2. If so, a previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 or another coronavirus could make an infection more severe, not less.​

 

[Vouthon]

On a more positive note, there is the potential for the virus to become weaker with time after, say, second or third waves.

Some scientific modelling admits of this as a possible future trajectory for the pandemic (although that's the most optimistic of other more disconcerting futures).

But I wouldn't bet on that eventuality and the interim period (i.e. the next year) is still likely to be grim in many parts of the world.

So long as the virus hasn't been eliminated everywhere, it will remain a threat to people living anywhere in the world. From the first wave, we now know just how rapidly it can spread around the globe in record time in the absence of social distancing, quarantines, contact tracing and lockdowns.

 

[ronki23]

Until we discover a safe and effective vaccine, alas no. We are fated to see continual epidemical outbreaks and flare-ups within the wider global pandemic, in tandem with future waves, because the virus is now at large and widely distributed in the human population. It won't entirely fade away.

The incidence of asymptomatic carriers and the fact that SARS-cov-2 can have a 12 day incubation period in many people, mean that it will keep spreading once lockdowns are fully eased without our knowing. Contact tracing will help to mitigate but only to mitigate, not suppress.

Moreover, there appears to be only short-term antibiotic immunity even for those who have had a bad dose of the virus already and recovered, of perhaps six months or at least under a year.

So, in the absence of a vaccine, I personally fear that COVID will become like smallpox once was: a perennial threat to the human population.

I even read one study which compared it with Dengue Fever, and if those particular findings are corroborated in subsequent research, then there could further complications.

See:

Yahoo is now a part of Verizon Media

Exacerbating harm

Cross protection is only half of the story. Viruses can also exacerbate the harm caused by one another. For example, HIV and measles directly attack the immune system, weakening the body’s defences and leaving a person vulnerable to other pathogens.

But there is also another, stranger pathway. Sometimes a previous infection with one viral strain can actively help a closely related strain to invade. Dengue virus is the most famous example. A person’s first infection with dengue is likely to be mild, but the second can be life-threatening. The dengue strain that causes the second infection can hitch a ride on the antibodies that were produced to clear the first, helping the second strain to enter cells and cause a more severe infection.

Similar processes could be in play for SARS-CoV-2. If so, a previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 or another coronavirus could make an infection more severe, not less.​

I don't understand how it happened twice in a year in China: they've been doing this for centuries. SARS was ages ago but now there's been 2 sources in one year.

 

[Vouthon]

I don't understand how it happened twice in a year in China: they've been doing this for centuries. SARS was ages ago but now there's been 2 sources in one year.

SARS-cov-2 is a far more contagious disease than either the original SARS or MERS. It lives on surfaces for longer and spreads chiefly through spike-proteins that latch onto cells through the nasal passage.

When you combine that reproduction rate and mechanism with the 12-day incubation period and asymptomatic spread, you have the recipe for a pandemic on the scale we're living through.

And courtesy of small mutations, the virus is becoming more contagious according to the latest research:


A mutation shows why the coronavirus is such a formidable foe (opinion) - CNN

(CNN)All living organisms mutate and adapt to maximize survival in their ecologic niche. For months, scientists have been looking into whether the novel coronavirus -- known as SARS-CoV-2 -- is mutating and becoming more transmissible or more lethal.

Recent evidence points to a preliminary answer to half the question: yes, a study has found that the virus has mutated and the dominant strain today is now capable of infecting more human cells. But the scientists say more research is needed to show whether this changed the course of the pandemic, and it remains unclear whether this mutation is more lethal.​

 

[ronki23]

SARS-cov-2 is a far more contagious disease than either the original SARS or MERS. It lives on surfaces for longer and spreads chiefly through spike-proteins that latch onto cells through the nasal passage.

When you combine that reproduction rate and mechanism with the 12-day incubation period and asymptomatic spread, you have the recipe for a pandemic on the scale we're living through.

And courtesy of small mutations, the virus is becoming more contagious according to the latest research:


A mutation shows why the coronavirus is such a formidable foe (opinion) - CNN

(CNN)All living organisms mutate and adapt to maximize survival in their ecologic niche. For months, scientists have been looking into whether the novel coronavirus -- known as SARS-CoV-2 -- is mutating and becoming more transmissible or more lethal.

Recent evidence points to a preliminary answer to half the question: yes, a study has found that the virus has mutated and the dominant strain today is now capable of infecting more human cells. But the scientists say more research is needed to show whether this changed the course of the pandemic, and it remains unclear whether this mutation is more lethal.​

I don't understand why it happened now if they've been doing this for hundreds of years. It happened twice in the space of a year- is it the same virus in Beijing ?

 

[Vouthon]

I read from the AFP's China correspondent that there are concerns about the safety of the food supply chain in relation to this most recent outbreak:

https://twitter.com/lauriechenwords/status/1271685468313096192?s=20

This has sparked panic over the safety of Beijing's food supply. Major supermarkets dumped all their salmon overnight, while some Beijing restaurants refused to serve it today. Beijing has closed two wholesale markets and plans to test all who visited the meat market since May 30​

 

[sun rise]

Will this ever end

Good question. We have a laboratory to study this. China acts aggressively now when cases show up. New Zealand is virus free (for now at least). Florida fired someone who was accurately documenting the extent of the virus because the politicians did not like the numbers.

Moreover, there appears to be only short-term antibiotic immunity even for those who have had a bad dose of the virus already and recovered, of perhaps six months or at least under a year.

There's a lot we don't know. Even a vaccine might only be effective for 6-12 months.

When you combine that reproduction rate and mechanism with the 12-day incubation period and asymptomatic spread,

I heard a discussion yesterday about presymptomatic versus asymptomatic spread. People can spread the virus before symptoms show up - that has been proven. What is apparently not known yet is how much truly asymptomatic people spread the disease.

 

[Vouthon]

There's a lot we don't know. Even a vaccine might only be effective for 6-12 months.

True, although that would be the worst case scenario. Here's hoping it doesn't pan out that way.

 

[`mud]

What's the best time to go to the grocery store and day ?

Just thinking ahead !

 

[sun rise]

What's the best time to go to the grocery store and day ?

Just thinking ahead !

Some stores have senior-only times in the morning a few days a week or every day. To me any contamination will occur during the day.

 

[Lyndon]

I don't understand how it happened twice in a year in China: they've been doing this for centuries. SARS was ages ago but now there's been 2 sources in one year.

This is absolutely no different than USA where meat packing plants all over the country have huge outbreaks.

 

[metis]

I don't understand how it happened twice in a year in China: they've been doing this for centuries. SARS was ages ago but now there's been 2 sources in one year.

Most of the previous coved viruses weren't so deadly or contagious, but some have been so radically different whereas they can go beyond most people's ability to fight them off and/or spread to rapidly.

IOW, it's sort of the luck of the draw.

 

[`mud]

@sun rise
In the morning, makes sense....on Sunday ?

 

[`mud]

hey @sun rise
Who are you to call me `elder`

 

[sun rise]

hey @sun rise
Who are you to call me `elder`

Ok, youngster.

 

[`mud]

Patronizing, as that is...
I'll take anything at my age !