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Question for Theists

Primordial Annihilator

Well-Known Member
Just because you say it doesn't make it so. ;)
Unless you can show why this is the case, it is just an ad hominem.

But you demonstrated it was so by refuting empirical evidence whilst declaring yourself an empiricist.


Really? Please show me some of this evidence that speaks to intelligently constructed vehicles.

belgium_triangular_above_trees.jpg


belgium%2790_bright.jpg



I'm not denying everything. Just your assumption that these phenomenon HAVE to be little green men. :D

They don't have to be but the other explanations that they are secret government projects or extra dimensional are even more bizarre and less concordant with the known facts about UFO phenomena and the three degrees/levels of contact that has reportedly been made by all kinds of people the world over.
From simply observing non human intelligent machines on radar or on video or through the naked eye to actual face to face contact with non human entities...some images of these non human entities do exist on the net and whilst the natural tendancy is to immediately scoff it is better to look then deny yourself the chance of spotting something truly unbelievable....


First of all... why would you think that they are not owned by us?
Secondly...what makes you so sure they are indeed spacecraft?

Well firstly then if we do own them why the hell are we using crappy and technologically inferior chemical rockets and aircraft?
They are likely space flight capable if they are not of this planet's origin....I thought that rather obvious.


Plausible, sure. Affirmed fact? Far from it.

I shall answer your question below....


Distance.

Distance in the 4 dimensional spatial universe is an illusionary thing to those subjective and limited to it.
It is theoretically possible that we could create an artificial wormhole to literally allow us to circumnavigate space and time through an extradimensional tunnel between two loci/point.
Secondly and perhaps more conservatively due to time dilation effects travelling at nearly the speed of light would make even journeys of dozens of light years pass in what might seem for the passengers months...and there are plenty of star systems nearby within 50 light years.


Well, considering that I'm unwilling to accept what amounts to an assumption lacking in evidential backing, I'd say my...paradigm...is very scientific indeed.
Again, it's not my fault that you don't have the required evidence...

I have a theory based on scientific evidence and empirical evidence and witness reports.


I merely pointed out that the Drake Equation is lacking in statistical backing seeing as we do not, in fact, know with any reasonable certainty how common life is in the universe. Have a look: Drake equation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I did offer to go through it with you in more detail.
I would like you to make the most conservative estimate and explain why and then I will like wise if you wish.

Use this...

Space: SETI: The Drake Equation


But do you claim that what you were doing was not cold reading?
Cause... It sure looked like it.
I've done it myself on several occations and it can be a lot of fun. :D

I don't claim...I know it wasnt.
 

jarofthoughts

Empirical Curmudgeon
But you demonstrated it was so by refuting empirical evidence whilst declaring yourself an empiricist.

I did not "refute" the evidence, shaky as it might be. I refused to accept you CONCLUSION based on said evidence because I hold that other conclusions and explanations are more plausible.
And for the record, if I had indeed REFUTED the evidence, then I would have succesfully shown that it was invalid. Refute | Define Refute at Dictionary.com




That's nice. Now for the source and validation of the pictures to:
1. show that they are not falsifications of some kind, and
2. show that they actually show what it appears they show.


They don't have to be but the other explanations that they are secret government projects or extra dimensional are even more bizarre and less concordant with the known facts about UFO phenomena and the three degrees/levels of contact that has reportedly been made by all kinds of people the world over.

I'm unfamiliar with the 'extra dimension' explanation, but seeing as various government projects of an aircraft capacity does take place and that experimentation and testing is often done in secret, it seems plausible that at least some of these observations are related to that fact. As for people "seeing" things all over the world...well, that is hardly news and we both know that people can be very credulous and make mistakes very frequently, especially if you leave the impression to "brew" for a while. Memory is a fickle thing and can easily be influenced by outside sources like the media, other people and the like. This is the reason the police, if possible, wishes to interrogate witnesses to an incident as soon as they can, preferably before they get a chance to sleep on it.
Take the Loch Ness monster as a counterexample. Many people have over the years claimed to see it, some have shown pictures (usually of poor quality), and yet, science does not recognize the Loch Ness monster as a factual entity. Why? Because we've looked, many times over, and the biology does not support the view that such an animal could live there. I'm not dogmatically saying that there cannot under any circumstance be a Loch Ness monster, but at the moment the evidence is not in favour of it.

From simply observing non human intelligent machines on radar or on video or through the naked eye to actual face to face contact with non human entities...some images of these non human entities do exist on the net and whilst the natural tendancy is to immediately scoff it is better to look then deny yourself the chance of spotting something truly unbelievable....

Mate, let me tell you, I'd be the first to cheer if we were indeed visited by aliens, provided they were of a friendly nature. I'd love for this to be true but at the moment, as I see it, the evidence is not showing it.

Well firstly then if we do own them why the hell are we using crappy and technologically inferior chemical rockets and aircraft?

Maybe they don't work yet? Maybe their capabilities are blown out of proportion? Maybe people are lying?
But to be honest, there just isn't enough reliable data to make a conclusion.

They are likely space flight capable if they are not of this planet's origin....I thought that rather obvious.

Maybe they are faerie-wagons?
Maybe they belong to a civilisation living underground here on Earth?
Maybe, maybe, maybe...
Why is it so hard for some people to just say "I don't know" and leave it at that?
Sure, investigate all you like, but until these alien abductees and their peers have something in the form of substantial evidence, all they have is a baseless claim.

Distance in the 4 dimensional spatial universe is an illusionary thing to those subjective and limited to it.

And I assume then that you have evidence of 4 dimensional beings?

It is theoretically possible that we could create an artificial wormhole to literally allow us to circumnavigate space and time through an extradimensional tunnel between two loci/point.

Sure, there are many things that are theoretically possible, or which at least does not contradict our current understanding of physics. But the fact remains that we have yet to find an actual wormhole. And until we do, this is just another unknown.

Secondly and perhaps more conservatively due to time dilation effects travelling at nearly the speed of light would make even journeys of dozens of light years pass in what might seem for the passengers months...and there are plenty of star systems nearby within 50 light years.

True, but assuming that they have overcome the hurdles of near light speed travel (of which there are quite a few), it would still mean a 100 year round-trip as relative to their home world.

I have a theory based on scientific evidence and empirical evidence and witness reports.

And I say I think you are overstating the solidity of your evidence and you are putting way too much value in those witness reports, which, from a scientific point of view, are considered the weakest form of evidence in the book.

I did offer to go through it with you in more detail.
I would like you to make the most conservative estimate and explain why and then I will like wise if you wish.

Use this...

Space: SETI: The Drake Equation

*Sigh* Alright... I'll play.
I'll be using current estimates when possible and will mark those with an *. For all others I'll comment. Ok?

N* set to 100 billion*.
fp set to 40%*.
ne set to .33. This should actually be closer to .2 or .1 according to current estimates, but .33 is as low as the page will let me put it.
fI set to .5%*.
fi set to .001%*. Note: This number is highly unreliable.
fc set to .001%*. Note: This number is highly unreliable.
fL set to 10000 years. Note: This number is highly unreliable.

These values gives us 6.6 communicating civilizations in the galaxy, which, in my view, makes it very unlikely that any of them have actually been visiting us.

I don't claim...I know it wasnt.

So what do you claim it was then? Clearvoyance?
 

Primordial Annihilator

Well-Known Member
Jarofthoughts' assumption.

N*
set to 100 billion*.
fp set to 40%*.
ne set to .33. This should actually be closer to .2 or .1 according to current estimates, but .33 is as low as the page will let me put it.
fI set to .5%*.
fi set to .001%*. Note: This number is highly unreliable.
fc set to .001%*. Note: This number is highly unreliable.
fL set to 10000 years. Note: This number is highly unreliable.

= 6.6 contacting civillisations.

Now for the scientific estimate...

N* = 100 billion (check)
fp = 40% (lets go with that, check)
ne = .33 - 4 (.33 is not a scientific estimate, our solar system has at least 1 life sustaining planet (maybe 2 with Europa), so 1 is most probable and 1.5 the average)
fl = 50% (not .5%, 50% is the average of all estimates)
fi = 50% (not .001%, 50% is the average of all estimates)
fc = 10 - 20% say 15% (not 001%, 15% is the average of estimates)
fL= 10000 years (Check)

Which gives approximately 1850 civilizations.

You chose the smallest parameters possible...for each part of the equation...with no supporting evidence...I chose the mean or average estimates...that is scientific...at least mathematically.

Now please justify why you chose the smallest possible estimates?
 
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Primordial Annihilator

Well-Known Member
JOT I feel that you are just being deliberately obtuse.

Playing devils advocate...are we?

You squeal about concrete evidence...but you don't define what that should be..

What do you want an alien broadcast from the Whitehouse lawn?

Please...get real.
 

jarofthoughts

Empirical Curmudgeon
Now please justify why you chose the smallest possible estimates?

Because you asked me to.

You said: "I would like you to make the most conservative estimate..." which means that I naturally chose the lowest estimates done in this context.

Also, as I've pointed out several times, there are way too many significant unknowns when it comes to these estimates, which means that putting much emphasis on the Drake Equation seems irresponsible.
 

Primordial Annihilator

Well-Known Member
Because you asked me to.

You said: "I would like you to make the most conservative estimate..." which means that I naturally chose the lowest estimates done in this context.

Also, as I've pointed out several times, there are way too many significant unknowns when it comes to these estimates, which means that putting much emphasis on the Drake Equation seems irresponsible.

Oh do me a favour...you still have to justify it.

The Drake Equation is a mathematical guide based on scientific observation.
there is nothing irresponsible about it...certainly not when we I am providing the theoretical basis for alien life forms visiting earth.
Even if only one space going civilization exists in this galaxy that means that there is still a chance that they have visited us or will do at some point.
 
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jarofthoughts

Empirical Curmudgeon
JOT I feel that you are just being deliberately obtuse.

Playing devils advocate...are we?

Maybe a little, but also adhering to my professed empiricism.

You squeal about concrete evidence...but you don't define what that should be..

An alien craft to examine would be nice.
A dead alien to disect would be awesome.
A live alien to communicate with would be even better.
A distinct broadcast originating from a far away solar system with clear indication of intelligence that cannot be explained in any "mundane" fashion.

What do you want an alien broadcast from the Whitehouse lawn?

That would, of course, be awesome, but no, I don't expect that to happen any time soon. ;)

Please...get real.

Well, one of the assumptions I allow is the assumption that observed reality is real. Of course, I could in theory be wrong, but for now it appears that I have no other choice than to consider myself and the world I observe to be real. For everything further I require evidence. ;)
 

Primordial Annihilator

Well-Known Member
An alien craft to examine would be nice.
A dead alien to disect would be awesome.
A live alien to communicate with would be even better.
A distinct broadcast originating from a far away solar system with clear indication of intelligence that cannot be explained in any "mundane" fashion.

What makes you think a government would reveal it had found a crashed UFO craft and dead aliens to disect?

In fact do I need to tell you that this topic has been a hot one since the Roswell incident?

So if you do communicate with a live alien why should I believe you if you wont believe anyone else and effectively call them a liar?

As for alien broadcasts...have you any idea of the range of frequencies that we would need to search through?
Plus of course why would they necessarily use inefficent radio waves?

You never know JOT maybe you are communicating with a live alien now...you wouldn't know any different...would you?
 

jarofthoughts

Empirical Curmudgeon
Oh do me a favour...you still have to justify it.

Alright. I justify it by saying that since the claim of alien visitations means postulating something that we have never (as far as scientific knowledge knows) encountered, and that we should err on the safe side when it comes to postulations like that. Hence, the most conservative values seems to me to be prudent when trying to calculate something that has such wide error bars.

The Drake Equation is a mathematical guide based on scientific observation.

Except, you know, for those items on the list where we either have scant or are still lacking observation.

there is nothing irresponsible about it...certainly not when we I am providing the theoretical basis for alien life forms visiting earth.

There is a potential theoretical basis for Russel's Teapot as well, but doesn't mean I'll accept it as truth.

Even if only one space going civilization exists in this galaxy that means that there is still a chance that they have visited us or will do at some point.

True, but a chance (we can argue whether chance is slim or not) is still miles away from a confirmation.
 

jarofthoughts

Empirical Curmudgeon
What makes you think a government would reveal it had found a crashed UFO craft and dead aliens to disect?

I don't. But going by that route one might think up any number of scenarios with no evidential backing that the government might or might not be doing. Claiming them to be real, however, requires a bit more.

In fact do I need to tell you that this topic has been a hot one since the Roswell incident?

Oh, I believe that the topic has been in circulation long before that. It just got a boost with Roswell. However, this incident has been debunked many times over, and while there is no guarantee that everyone is not lying, there is enough to go on to consider the whole thing highly unlikely to have been an incident of a crashed alien spacecraft.

So if you do communicate with a live alien why should I believe you if you wont believe anyone else and effectively call them a liar?

If I made such a claim you would be right to distrust me.

As for alien broadcasts...have you any idea of the range of frequencies that we would need to search through?
Plus of course why would they necessarily use inefficent radio waves?

Yes, I do have some idea, and no, there is no reason why they would have to.
Which is why I think we should step up the SETI program a lot.

You never know JOT maybe you are communicating with a live alien now...you wouldn't know any different...would you?

No, but I have no reason to think that that is the case.
 

Koldo

Outstanding Member
First, here is the definition of evidence :

"ev·i·dence
n.
1. A thing or things helpful in forming a conclusion or judgment: The broken window was evidence that a burglary had taken place. Scientists weigh the evidence for and against a hypothesis.
2. Something indicative; an outward sign: evidence of grief on a mourner's face.
3. Law The documentary or oral statements and the material objects admissible as testimony in a court of law."


As a matter of fact, we do have evidence that aliens came to Earth already. As evidence is anything that may be indicative of an event. Photographs, videos, witnesses and so on are evidence.

Now check what proof is :

"proof
1. The evidence or argument that compels the mind to accept an assertion as true.
2. a. The validation of a proposition by application of specified rules, as of induction or deduction, to assumptions, axioms, and sequentially derived conclusions.
b. A statement or argument used in such a validation.

3. a. Convincing or persuasive demonstration: was asked for proof of his identity; an employment history that was proof of her dependability.
b. The state of being convinced or persuaded by consideration of evidence."


What we do NOT have is an evidence convicing enough to qualify as proof for everyone. Pay attention that proof is a rather subjective word. What may constitute proof to you may not constitute a proof to me.

As none of the evidence we have is widely accepted as proof , then we don't have proof that aliens visited us.
 
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Primordial Annihilator

Well-Known Member
However, this incident has been debunked many times over, and while there is no guarantee that everyone is not lying, there is enough to go on to consider the whole thing highly unlikely to have been an incident of a crashed alien spacecraft.

It certainly hasnt been debunked despite the repeated attempts.
There is plenty of evidence to suggest that whatever happened, something crashed and many government agencies became involved.

You are either unwisely trusting of a paranoid cold war authority or unaple to accept that if even one witness report is true your whole denial is blown out of the water...

You have to claim that every witness is mistaken..out of millions...that every image still or action shows anything but a purposefully moving flying spacecraft/vehicle of unknown origin...that every unknown radar reflection was a flock of geese moving at supersonic speeds....in various trajectories.
That crop circles are all the work of men...despite the scientific impossibility of that for the larger complex circles so far detected.

If just one of any of those millions of pieces of empirical evidence is true then your theory is dead.
 

Primordial Annihilator

Well-Known Member
First, here is the definition of evidence :

"ev·i·dence
n.
1. A thing or things helpful in forming a conclusion or judgment: The broken window was evidence that a burglary had taken place. Scientists weigh the evidence for and against a hypothesis.
2. Something indicative; an outward sign: evidence of grief on a mourner's face.
3. Law The documentary or oral statements and the material objects admissible as testimony in a court of law."


As a matter of fact, we do have evidence that aliens came to Earth already. As evidence is anything that may be indicative of an event. Photographs, videos, witnesses and so on are evidence.

Now check what proof is :

"proof
1. The evidence or argument that compels the mind to accept an assertion as true.
2. a. The validation of a proposition by application of specified rules, as of induction or deduction, to assumptions, axioms, and sequentially derived conclusions.
b. A statement or argument used in such a validation.

3. a. Convincing or persuasive demonstration: was asked for proof of his identity; an employment history that was proof of her dependability.
b. The state of being convinced or persuaded by consideration of evidence."


What we do NOT have is an evidence convicing enough to qualify as proof for everyone. Pay attention that proof is a rather subjective word. What may constitute proof to you may not constitute a proof to me.

As none of the evidence we have is widely accepted as proof , then we don't have proof that aliens visited us.

True, but what we do have is a theory...a model.

The theory being that we are being visited by extra terrestrial intelligences and in fact have been visited by them probably for thousands of years.
In fact our oldest myths and symbols may be linked to extra terrestrial contact in the deep past.

The theory is supported by the fact that A. At least 18 alien civilizations of a highly advanced technology (1% of 1800 moderately advanced) may currently exist in this galaxy...according to the Drake Equation.

B. All the empirical data...images, witness reports etc...
 

jarofthoughts

Empirical Curmudgeon
It certainly hasnt been debunked despite the repeated attempts.
There is plenty of evidence to suggest that whatever happened, something crashed and many government agencies became involved.

No-one is denying something crashed...
They're just denying that that something was an alien spacecraft.

You are either unwisely trusting of a paranoid cold war authority or unaple to accept that if even one witness report is true your whole denial is blown out of the water...

You have to claim that every witness is mistaken..out of millions...that every image still or action shows anything but a purposefully moving flying spacecraft/vehicle of unknown origin...that every unknown radar reflection was a flock of geese moving at supersonic speeds....in various trajectories.
That crop circles are all the work of men...despite the scientific impossibility of that for the larger complex circles so far detected.

If just one of any of those millions of pieces of empirical evidence is true then your theory is dead.

See, here is the thing: You're making the claim that these phenomena are due to alien visitations. I'm making no claim at all, except that I find your claim lacking in evidence.
I, like science, hold witness reports to be of very little value for many reasons. People lie. People misinterpret. People are affected by other influences that modify their memory. People exaggerate. And so on.
We know that there have been man hoaxes and pranks in this area, and while I don't say that all of them are, it is important to cut down to the events that we cannot explain plausibly by other means.

Which is kinda hard with all the nut-jobs out there. ;)
 

jarofthoughts

Empirical Curmudgeon
The theory is supported by the fact that A. At least 18 alien civilizations of a highly advanced technology (1% of 1800 moderately advanced) may currently exist in this galaxy...according to the Drake Equation.

Which, as I've pointed out several times, has severe shortcomings due to a lack of reliable data.

B. All the empirical data...images, witness reports etc...

See: Psychosocial hypothesis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Also, I would love to see some links to verified non-explained/explainable non-hoax empirical evidence.
 

Primordial Annihilator

Well-Known Member
Really? So in your book any explanation, no matter how unfounded and unsubstantiated is better than admitting that we don't know?

Interesting... :sarcastic

Yes my friend exactly.

A theory is better than no theory...or pretending it doesn't happen...which is most convienient but ultimately flawed and hardly altruistic.

The pursuit of truth often involves a good look at probability..

I am stating beyond any reasonable doubt that given the evidence we do have that many UFO phenomena defy all non ET origin explanations..the sheer unknown technologies that can create vast highly complex and mathematically precise 3 dimensional (layered) crop circles at night in mere hours?
Taking the time to irradiate wheat stalks with microwave radiation and disperse very small iron filings everywhere?
(In many crop circles in England the wheat has been irradiated and iron particles are present in great quantity)

These things happen jbug...I have met the laboratory managers who have analysed the soil samples from such places...weird...is the word.
I happen to be an environmental analytical chemist...I am familiar with spectrographic analyses and what is commonly the case for English soil..I have seen data sheets that would startle you.
 
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jarofthoughts

Empirical Curmudgeon
Yes my friend exactly.

A theory is better than no theory...or pretending it doesn't happen...which is most convienient but ultimately flawed and hardly altruistic.

I'm not sure where altruism comes into this... :sarcastic

The pursuit of truth often involves a good look at probability..

All science is based on probability, so no argument there.

I am stating beyond any reasonable doubt that given the evidence we do have that many UFO phenomena defy all non ET origin explanations..the sheer unknown technologies that can create vast highly complex and mathematically precise 3 dimensional (layered) crop circles at night in mere hours?

Crop circles mainly come down to planning and manpower. For instance this (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c4/Crop_circles_Swirl.jpg) could be considered both highly complex as well as mathematically precise, and we know that one was human made, as we know the man behind it, John Lundberg.

Taking the time to irradiate wheat stalks with microwave radiation and disperse very small iron filings everywhere?

It is certainly possible. Perhaps there is some hidden organisation of pranksters who just loves to pull people's legs. At any rate, implausible as that is, it is more plausible than the "aliens did it" idea because we know for a fact that pranksters exist and that some of them put huge amounts of effort into their pranks.

These things happen jbug...I have met the laboratory managers who have analysed the soil samples from such places...weird...is the word.
I happen to be an environmental analytical chemist...I am familiar with spectrographic analyses and what is commonly the case for English soil..I have seen data sheets that would startle you.

Maybe so...maybe not. In either case none of that can be considered evidence of aliens.
 

atanu

Member
Premium Member
When a follower of science says "I know all", he stops being a scientist, IMO.

...
 
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