NFL 2015: mid-season through the Super Bowl

[Town Heretic]

Time to get back at it after a hiatus of sorts...here goes:

It took giving NE a 4.5 edge to move the betting public to a near dead heat in Vegas as the split in support of that is running 51/49. New England is a little dinged and KC is playing about as well as you can with their talent, which isn't inconsiderable.

Arizona is a weak 7 favorite over Green Bay with the split going 51/49 the other way.

Suckers. Green Bay feasted on defensive weakness, as Washington sported the 25th ranked pass defense in yards allowed. This week Rodgers faces a top ten backfield and a better defensive front.

Seattle is only a 2.5 dog to Carolina in a game that will either elevate the Panthers to inarguably worthy or reduce them to "See, that's what I thought" status post action.

Denver is a nervous 6.5 favorite, but the split isn't, with 57/43 for being a vote of confidence for either Peyton, the Denver defense or attrition.

I like KC in the upset, Arizona to cover, Seattle to edge past the Panthers in an essential pick'em and Denver to hold serve.

 

[George-ananda]

Time to get back at it after a hiatus of sorts...here goes:

You know what I never see but would like to see is a review of past predictions. I would like to see the predictions for playoffs from before the season versus what actually happened. That would tell us a lot about the value of predictions.

Secondly after every NFL draft people rush to grade the teams draft. This grading I feel is too soon to be meaningful. I would like follow-ups grading drafts one year, two years, three years out but nobody does this,

Just my vent about predictions.

 

[Town Heretic]

You know what I never see but would like to see is a review of past predictions. I would like to see the predictions for playoffs from before the season versus what actually happened. That would tell us a lot about the value of predictions.

Predictions before the season would be wild guess work. Each year teams lose talent and add it. I can give you a playoff prediction by midseason, absent injuries that unbalance a model, but that's about it.

Secondly after every NFL draft people rush to grade the teams draft. This grading I feel is too soon to be meaningful. I would like follow-ups grading drafts one year, two years, three years out but nobody does this,

You'd be surprised. When I made money at it I kept five years of draft coverages on hand for every active GM and I graded the contribution in estimating the impact of the next draft.

Just my vent about predictions.

I've been picking games for a long time. Last week I went three and one, taking KC, Cin, Sea and GB. I tend to do pretty well most years. This one has been up and down. I think my worse week was six and ten and my best fourteen and two, against the line. I've been making my picks public for years at another site and taken part in ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em contest for longer. My best in that one was placing 15th out of over a hundred thousand applicants several years ago. When my son was born I didn't have the time to put into pulling everything together anymore and I do more seat of the pants these days, for fun.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

All right, so this is me back from leave. My picks over the period since my last post have been up and down, with slightly more down than up. But oh Mama, last weekend made up for it. Sure, I'm posting this after the fact, but I made up the small amount of cash I'd dropped of late and THEN some...and then some more.

Woohoo...

My picks were as follows;

Panthers to cover a 2.5 spread against Seattle. Man, I was strutting on that one at half-time, but it ended up uncomfortably close. I just backed Cam as being too good (this year) to not at least make the Final Four (so to speak). Besides, Russell Wilson annoys me. I suspect it's a Niner-fan thing.

Pittsburgh to lose by less than 7.5. This one had me sweating, as you can imagine, even a late Manning drive wasn't going to beat the line, so the last few minutes were more comfy than the score indicates.

And finally...and yeah, I know this is an NFL thread...the T'Wolves to win by more than 3.5 against the Phoenix Suns, who seem to have taken a sawn-off shotgun to their own foot in an attempt to out-Sixer Philly. I only include this pick since I had it tied up with the other 2 in a cross-sport triple bet.

It very nearly didn't work, but to be fair to me, I had the stinking Steelers to beat the Bengals by 2.5 or more the week before, so I was due for some close ones to fall my way.