I don't gamble with this because I am super bad at it.
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NFL 2015: mid-season through the Super Bowl
- Thread starter Town Heretic
- Start date
Town Heretic
Temporarily out of order
I'm bailing on my New England and Dallas picks.
This season... what the heck is going on this season. Nothing is really making sense.
Town Heretic
Temporarily out of order
Should have gone with my gut on New England after all...which makes the Dallas game a good bail, given it's unlikely to happen twice.
Yup. I set aside a small amount of money for the year as a stake, and then try to build it up by the end of the year, but whatever that stake is, I assume it's sunk money, basically.
I'm travelling pretty well this year, but it's all what you guys might call nickel and dime stuff. Work too hard for it...lol
I'm 2 out of 2 so far this weekend, so c'mon Steelers!
Oooh....3 out of 3. All i need is the Washington Professional Football Team to bring home the bacon.
A gamble for sure, but I like your chances.
Okay, so where are we?
Going into tonight...
TH takes the squeeker here correctly predicting the winner given the 4.5 gifted to the Ravens.
Q can sleep better knowing Manning got what was coming to him in OT.
TH sprinted for the lifeboats, unfortunately for him (and all involved), the boat wasn't sinking.
Good night, @lewisnotmiller pegs this one with room to spare as the Steelers crush the colts late last night.
Going into tonight...
TH bails on the Cowboys giving this game the trifecta as all three judges score this card in favor of Washington at home!
Town Heretic
Temporarily out of order
What I know...
Okay, to simplify this...imagine the number 18-20 is the average strength of a decent team, with 21 being a solidly good team and 25 being a playoff caliber contestant. 30+ is reserved for teams playing at a championship level. That's your background.
Here's how a few of the top contenders would look over the past five weeks (read it left to right, week 10-14).
GB: 28, 25, 26, 25, 22
NE: 34, 32, 31, 30, 28
Arz: 27, 28, 29, 28, 30
Den: 29, 27, 26, 27, 28
Cin 28, 27, 27, 28, 31
KC: 29, 30, 32, 31, 31
Sea: 25, 26, 26, 27, 30
Car: 25, 26, 28, 30, 29
Pit: 27, -, 27, 26, 29
So, the Packers, win or lose, have been steadily declining.
New England (and I told Granite they were peaking early) have for one reason or another been moving in the wrong direction, though they're still a force.
Arizona is mostly making a steady, incremental push.
Denver, after adjusting for the new guy, is getting better.
Cin was holding in the solidly competitive range and took a tentative step into the rarified air this week.
KC is playing about as well as anyone, though no one seems scared of them.
Seattle appears to be coming on.
Carolina, despite a slight hiccup Sunday, is a legitimate NFC contender with room for improvement.
Pit is hard to read, but can't be written off.
In short, with the former front runners in decline and the competitive pack playing mostly lights out this thing is anyone's to win at present.
A wash of a week, prediction wise. I should have stuck to my guns with New England, but that's life.
Okay, to simplify this...imagine the number 18-20 is the average strength of a decent team, with 21 being a solidly good team and 25 being a playoff caliber contestant. 30+ is reserved for teams playing at a championship level. That's your background.
Here's how a few of the top contenders would look over the past five weeks (read it left to right, week 10-14).
GB: 28, 25, 26, 25, 22
NE: 34, 32, 31, 30, 28
Arz: 27, 28, 29, 28, 30
Den: 29, 27, 26, 27, 28
Cin 28, 27, 27, 28, 31
KC: 29, 30, 32, 31, 31
Sea: 25, 26, 26, 27, 30
Car: 25, 26, 28, 30, 29
Pit: 27, -, 27, 26, 29
So, the Packers, win or lose, have been steadily declining.
New England (and I told Granite they were peaking early) have for one reason or another been moving in the wrong direction, though they're still a force.
Arizona is mostly making a steady, incremental push.
Denver, after adjusting for the new guy, is getting better.
Cin was holding in the solidly competitive range and took a tentative step into the rarified air this week.
KC is playing about as well as anyone, though no one seems scared of them.
Seattle appears to be coming on.
Carolina, despite a slight hiccup Sunday, is a legitimate NFC contender with room for improvement.
Pit is hard to read, but can't be written off.
In short, with the former front runners in decline and the competitive pack playing mostly lights out this thing is anyone's to win at present.
A wash of a week, prediction wise. I should have stuck to my guns with New England, but that's life.
Why is Carolina rated so low in comparison and on the same level at Pitt? Have they not earned your trust yet?
Town Heretic
Temporarily out of order
I don't see it as low. They played too poor a game against the Saints and it cost them a bit. Else, it's about opponents. They've won, what, fifteen games in a row now, but only played a couple of teams with records above .500 in that stretch. I think that if anything, I've given them a mathematical benefit of the doubt.
As it stands, considering the rough additional advantage of home field, I'd have them a marginal favorite to represent the NFC. I don't think that's much of a slight. They aren't a dominant team, despite their rating. They're just a very good team in a very weak division. I like Arizona at present, but it's anyone's to take from the top group, except maybe Green Bay absent a serious course correction.
Now the AFC is where it really gets interesting...as for Pit, it had a spike jump. Those usually come back a bit. I much prefer to see a team advancing one or two points a week going into the home stretch and expect a one up or down along that way. KC, Denver and Seattle are doing that, by way of...
That is a good point. Although, they did best Seattle and GB. But we have already discussed Rodgers and Co...
Town Heretic
Temporarily out of order
And don't forget, Seattle wasn't playing then the way it is lately...also, while Green Bay was a solid victory at the time, it's a bit less impressive in light of their steady collapse following the Denver exposure.
A gamble for sure, but I like your chances.
Stinking Washington!!!
Oh well...turned a great week into a good week.
It was easily one of the worst displays of professional athletics that I have seen in a very long time. Truth be told, the Little Giants could have geared up and ran away with it with either of those teams.
Town Heretic
Temporarily out of order
I had a lukewarm one as well. Should have stayed on a couple of guesses, but I went with the courage of my lack of conviction.
Well you know what they say, "That's why they half-*** play the games."
I'm getting in early with my picks for this weekend, since I am unsure how much I'll be online the next couple of days, and these are unlikely to change in any case.
3 selections this week. Last week I went 3 of 4, so I'm hoping by dropping the fourth game, I go 3 for 3!! I'm also banning myself from even considering the Washington Professional Football Team.
Detroit (+1.0) to beat St Louis - I was mildly surprised to see Detroit getting a point on this. I figured it for about a -1.0, but we'll see. They are, obviously, choke artists of the highest order. I think they either win by more than a touchdown, or they get beat, actually, so we'll see how we go. I have at least seen a little something from Golden Tate of late, after he was borderline useless the first half of the year, and Stafford can throw, so....
My Niners (+1.5) to beat Cleveland - Battle of the crap teams, but from where I'm sitting, San Fran appears to be a crap team who are trying, and Cleveland appears to be a crap team trying to land the No.1 pick in next year's draft. Gabbert could come out and throw 14 picks in a game regardless, and who knows what's going on at QB for Cleveland, but I'm picking purely based on effort.
Giants (+1.0) to beat the Dolphins - It just smells like Eli time. It happens at least 2 or 3 times a year, and this might be one of those weeks. If it is, they win easily. If it's not, I still give them some chance. I have basically no reason to trust the Miami secondary, or the coaching. Tannehill might have some ability, but I think he'll need a more stable coaching environment to be able to show it.
3 selections this week. Last week I went 3 of 4, so I'm hoping by dropping the fourth game, I go 3 for 3!! I'm also banning myself from even considering the Washington Professional Football Team.
Detroit (+1.0) to beat St Louis - I was mildly surprised to see Detroit getting a point on this. I figured it for about a -1.0, but we'll see. They are, obviously, choke artists of the highest order. I think they either win by more than a touchdown, or they get beat, actually, so we'll see how we go. I have at least seen a little something from Golden Tate of late, after he was borderline useless the first half of the year, and Stafford can throw, so....
My Niners (+1.5) to beat Cleveland - Battle of the crap teams, but from where I'm sitting, San Fran appears to be a crap team who are trying, and Cleveland appears to be a crap team trying to land the No.1 pick in next year's draft. Gabbert could come out and throw 14 picks in a game regardless, and who knows what's going on at QB for Cleveland, but I'm picking purely based on effort.
Giants (+1.0) to beat the Dolphins - It just smells like Eli time. It happens at least 2 or 3 times a year, and this might be one of those weeks. If it is, they win easily. If it's not, I still give them some chance. I have basically no reason to trust the Miami secondary, or the coaching. Tannehill might have some ability, but I think he'll need a more stable coaching environment to be able to show it.
Town Heretic
Temporarily out of order
I like all of your picks. I'll try to set out a little more later, as time allows. If Manziel has one of those games he could upset the SF applecart and that's the wildcard in the pick. I think the Giants are the better team and Miami has struggled mightily to produce points. Detroit is better than their record now and SL...is mystifying.
Wow. Who woulda thunk the drunk midget would come back and bury my Niners. As for Detroit...well...I dunno. I wrongly assumed their qb-receiving corps had turned the corner, or at the very least were trying to make themselves attractive to new teams.
Town Heretic
Temporarily out of order
That one didn't surprise me, but the Detroit game was more of a surprise on the SL side, after a handful of offensively fruitless games. It's that sort of season. Same sort of thing with Washington. Up and down week again for me.