Wandering Monk
Well-Known Member
I have been doing daily analysis of data from the Minnesota Department of Health looking for trends in Covid.
Trying to determine the fatalities per case is very difficult because we don't know how many people have contracted the virus but had no symptoms or very mild ones that did not require medical attention and so did not get counted.
Minnesota has been tracking numbers of tests and results since late March. It is important to note that these tests were for people suspected of having Covid at the time they were tested, NOT people who may have had it and recovered.
Deaths were derived from death certificates. In early days, before tests were widely available, they left it up to the doctors judgement whether to report deaths as Covid or not, based on the symptoms and their best clinical judgement. (In the UK, high fever and dry cough were symptoms in 99% of people who died from Covid. They have since added 'loss of sense of smell to the list.) Since May 13, Minnesota has been separating out 'presumed' Covid cases from their case data and going with actual tests results. PLEASE LEAVE POLITICS OUT OF THIS DISCUSSION!
We will not know what percentage of people who contracted the virus actually died from it until enough people have been tested for antibodies that a reasonably accurate projection can be made. The antibody test is different than the test for Covid in patients. The antibody test only tells you if you have had it in the past, not if you are currently infected.
This chart therefore only represents the cases that have been found in people who were suspected of having the virus and who took the tests. This is based on the total number of tests for Covid over time.
You can see that the fatality rate is stubbornly stuck around 4% of positive tests and that positive tests are around 11% of total tests.
Of those who died, 80% were in Long Term Care or Assisted Living facilities.
The confusing thing about this is that the % of positive cases has been declining since early May. Lately states have been reporting an excess of unused test kits. They are telling people to get tested only if they have symptoms. Does this decline mean that fewer people are having symptoms (a decline in infections) or does it mean something else?
Curiously, I was watching the daily British government briefings on Covid, and their rates are very close to these percentages.
Trying to determine the fatalities per case is very difficult because we don't know how many people have contracted the virus but had no symptoms or very mild ones that did not require medical attention and so did not get counted.
Minnesota has been tracking numbers of tests and results since late March. It is important to note that these tests were for people suspected of having Covid at the time they were tested, NOT people who may have had it and recovered.
Deaths were derived from death certificates. In early days, before tests were widely available, they left it up to the doctors judgement whether to report deaths as Covid or not, based on the symptoms and their best clinical judgement. (In the UK, high fever and dry cough were symptoms in 99% of people who died from Covid. They have since added 'loss of sense of smell to the list.) Since May 13, Minnesota has been separating out 'presumed' Covid cases from their case data and going with actual tests results. PLEASE LEAVE POLITICS OUT OF THIS DISCUSSION!
We will not know what percentage of people who contracted the virus actually died from it until enough people have been tested for antibodies that a reasonably accurate projection can be made. The antibody test is different than the test for Covid in patients. The antibody test only tells you if you have had it in the past, not if you are currently infected.
This chart therefore only represents the cases that have been found in people who were suspected of having the virus and who took the tests. This is based on the total number of tests for Covid over time.
You can see that the fatality rate is stubbornly stuck around 4% of positive tests and that positive tests are around 11% of total tests.
Of those who died, 80% were in Long Term Care or Assisted Living facilities.
The confusing thing about this is that the % of positive cases has been declining since early May. Lately states have been reporting an excess of unused test kits. They are telling people to get tested only if they have symptoms. Does this decline mean that fewer people are having symptoms (a decline in infections) or does it mean something else?
Curiously, I was watching the daily British government briefings on Covid, and their rates are very close to these percentages.
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