Lots of good, basic info on the endeavor. This is a general audience article.
Special report: The simulations driving the world’s response to COVID-19
Excellent article, and reflects the research I am doing, but on a more sophisticated level. Several important points that I disagree with concerning the Imperial college possible fatality rates. I believe they are far too high considering the nature and extent of the COVAG-19 virus from the beginning. It was apparent from the Wuhan statistics that the virus heavily impacted the elderly and 81%+ of those infected had weak to no symptoms. This does not fit the Imperial College high estimates of fatalities The second wave is also hypothetical, and I have to take a wait and see on this one, and see if the infection persists like the H1N1 2008-9 pandemic.
the predictions and assessments of his 'advisors have been all over the place, and there later, ah . . . after the fact predictions sort of fit my previous predictions, but with the bogus claim of 'defeating the the virus.'.
The natural bell curve path of the virus fits my predictions in the past as between late April to May centering on May 1 as a fairly regular natural virus bell curve tapering off in May into maybe June. Actually around the world the path of the virus bell curve in larger western countries is following this bell curve depending on when the pandemic began in that country or region. Countries like Italy infected early have a predictable earlier peak then the USA. Russia was infected later, and therefore will have a more prolonged bell curve. The smaller humps withing the larger pattern are later infections in populations of those in some way isolated that did not have immunity. This is the problem with when we lift the measures to reduce the spread of the virus, because much of the country has been somewhat isolated from the virus like some counties in North Carolina, and subject to later infections.
My predictions of fatalities in the USA was 15-30,000, but the spread of the virus by many infected with little or no symptom upped my predictions to 40 to 50,000 which are more reasonable based on the history of this pandemic without the wild predictions made by some without any basis in the actual history of the virus. The poor health of the elderly and vulnerable population in the West likely contributed to the higher fatality rate. There is another factor that I consider possible that the countries in the Orient have herd immunity from coevolution with coronaviruses, as described by the regional coevolution of Herpes viruses with their hosts, but The Lurch strongly disagrees. This may explain part of the difference between the infection rate in the Orient and the West, notwithstanding the fact that countries like South Korea and Japan were far more aggressive and proactive in dealing with the pandemic.
I also made the prediction the Trump would do a victory dance to claim his efforts will defeat the virus, and like China claiming they defeated the virus, and no as in past pandemics the Virus does what the virus does. We may implement measures to reduced the fatalities, but no we cannot defeat the virus anymore than we can not defeat the flu nor simple colds.
By the way the fatality rate from country to country and region to region in the West is more correlated to the elderly age percentage and vulnerability of the population then any difference in the efforts of the individual countries implemented to reduce impact of the COVAG-19 pandemic. Northern Italy has the highest average age than most countries. at 79.9 See:
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research. The best source I can fined on the daily reporting of the data.
There is a possible correlation that in the Orient the elderly population is in much better health than in Western countries. When I was in China the older generations were in the parks with me doing hours of Tai Chi and other exercises. Unfortunately the younger generations in the Orient are not in as good health as the older generations,
