Is coronavirus a black swan event

[Augustus]

Who knows? We may already have done so, possibly more than once.

The pandemic that doesn't happen will be hard to identify and study, obviously

And that is precisely the reason it is better to be over-cautious.

Ironically, if we have prevented a pandemic, people are now using that as 'evidence' for why it is 'irrational' to be concerned about every new 'killer virus'.

 

[Augustus]

But not with responses that make people panic and send them scattering, which will make efforts to contain and quarantine a virus vastly more difficult. Staying calm is the best thing to do in a disaster or emergency. Panicing and going on about the apocalyptic nature of the event is not.

I haven't seen anybody doing any of that though.

What harmful behaviour have you seen?

 

[Shadow Wolf]

What harmful behaviour have you seen?

Hand sanitizer pumps going up everywhere, for one thing.

 

[Augustus]

Hand sanitizer pumps going up everywhere, for one thing.

That's a good thing. People being conscious of prevention before a potential outbreak and taking preventative measures that cost next to nothing is prudent.

The worst that can happen is you waste a couple of dollars and a few minutes cleaning your hands slightly more than normal.

We can live with that.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

That's a good thing. People being conscious of prevention before a potential outbreak and taking preventative measures that cost next to nothing is prudent.

Our over use of anti-biotic stuff is having disastrous consequences. Like killing off good bacteria that we need while those we don't gain immunity to such stuff and evolve into "super strains" that are harder to treat or have no treatment available at all. That includes tuberculosis.

 

[columbus]

The worst that can happen is you waste a couple of dollars and a few minutes cleaning your hands slightly more than normal.

No, really not.
The worst that can happen is developing "super bugs" resistant to most forms of control. Infections caused by the "naturally selected" offspring of those microbes that don't die, immediately.
Google MARCI.
Modern hospitals have a problem with infectious microbes who have evolved resistance to most common disinfectants and antibiotics.
Tom

 

[Augustus]

Our over use of anti-biotic stuff is having disastrous consequences. Like killing off good bacteria that we need while those we don't gain immunity to such stuff and evolve into "super strains" that are harder to treat or have no treatment available at all. That includes tuberculosis.

I agree overuse of antibiotics is a massive problem, but short term increase in use of alcohol-based hand sanitiser is not exactly what we need to worry about in this regard.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

I agree overuse of antibiotics is a massive problem, but short term increase in use of alcohol-based hand sanitiser is not exactly what we need to worry about in this regard.

Their use has been going up ever since they became a thing. And, yes, it is something to be concerned about because those, along with farming techniques, failing to follow through with prescriptions, over reliance on prescriptions, and other "anti-germ" practices are producing germs we can't treat.

 

[Augustus]

No, really not.
The worst that can happen is developing "super bugs" resistant to most forms of control. Infections caused by the "naturally selected" offspring of those microbes that don't die, immediately.
Google MARCI.
Modern hospitals have a problem with infectious microbes who have evolved resistance to most common disinfectants and antibiotics.

Do you mean MRSA? (Which is not short for Hand Sanitiser Resistant Staphylococcus Aureus)

A short term increase in use of hand sanitiser would account for 0% of the use of antibiotics and probably >0.0001% of the use of disinfectant/antiseptic products.

 

[columbus]

Do you mean MRSA? (Which is not short for Hand Sanitiser Resistant Staphylococcus Aureus)

A short term increase in use of hand sanitiser would account for 0% of the use of antibiotics and probably >0.0001% of the use of disinfectant/antiseptic products.

I'm not sure.
MARCI was the term used to describe the hospital infection that mainly killed my dad, after open heart surgery.
It was described as a staph infection that didn't respond to any of the usual treatments, so they cut out his breast bone where most of the infection was, then put him in an artificial coma for a couple of months.
He never really recovered from all that.
Tom

 

[Augustus]

Their use has been going up ever since they became a thing. And, yes, it is something to be concerned about because those, along with farming techniques, failing to follow through with prescriptions, over reliance on prescriptions, and other "anti-germ" practices are producing germs we can't treat.

I agree, but short term increase in use of hand sanitiser contributes basically nothing to any of that.

The problem is massive-scale everyday unnecessary usage of such things, not usage where there is a clear purpose like disinfecting a wound or taking precautions against a global pandemic.

 

[Augustus]

I'm not sure.
MARCI was the term used to describe the hospital infection that mainly killed my dad, after open heart surgery.
It was described as a staph infection that didn't respond to any of the usual treatments, so they cut out his breast bone where most of the infection was, then put him in an artificial coma for a couple of months.
He never really recovered from all that.
Tom

Sorry to hear that.

Drug resistant infections like MRSA are primarily caused by antibiotic resistance which I think is one of the most serious problems facing humanity.

Short-term use of hand sanitiser once every few years is not what causes this though.

 

[columbus]

The problem is massive-scale everyday unnecessary usage of such things, not usage where there is a clear purpose like disinfecting a wound or taking precautions against a global pandemic.

Exactly

Where do you draw the line?
I've got some young relatives who come down with everything.

They've never been allowed to just go play outside by themselves, mom always required a chaperone to make sure they didn't get too dirty. And she wipes down every surface in the house with disinfectant over and over. The minute they get a sniffle they're off to the doctor for antibiotics.
If it weren't for vaccinations, I'm not sure they'd have any immune system at all. I can't believe that's a healthy way to raise kids.
Tom

 

[Shadow Wolf]

I can't believe that's a healthy way to raise kids.

It's probably not.

 

[columbus]

Sorry to hear that.

Drug resistant infections like MRSA are primarily caused by antibiotic resistance which I think is one of the most serious problems facing humanity.

Short-term use of hand sanitiser once every few years is not what causes this though.

Perhaps I don't remember the term. It was years ago.

But the problem, as I understand, was an infection that had developed resistance to practically everything due to the enormous number of germs in the hospital and the care taken to disinfect and treat the illnesses.
Evolution.
Tom

 

[Augustus]

I've got some young relatives who come down with everything.

They've never been allowed to just go play outside by themselves, mom always required a chaperone to make sure they didn't get too dirty. And she wipes down every surface in the house with disinfectant over and over. The minute they get a sniffle they're off to the doctor for antibiotics.
If it weren't for vaccinations, I'm not sure they'd have any immune system at all. I can't believe that's a healthy way to raise kids.

Iatrogenesis - Wikipedia

 

[Revoltingest]

I've heard that Cervecería Modelo (Corona beer) is
concerned about their image. They're addressing it.

 

[Augustus]

I've heard that Cervecería Modelo (Corona beer) is
concerned about their image. They're addressing it.

I didn't realise that people putting a lime in the bottle was actually a precautionary healthcare initiatiave based on the natural antimicrobial qualities of citrus fruits.

Hats off to them for their prudent risk management.

 

[Stevicus]

I was just reading that there was a sixth confirmed case of coronavirus in the U.S.

Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO after 1st person-to-person US case reported

This week, the U.S. government chartered a flight to evacuate 196 Americans from Wuhan, China. Those evacuees were screened and monitored for signs of illness before and throughout their flight. After landing in California, the passengers entered a voluntary three-day quarantine and will be offered testing for the virus, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

MORE: US evacuation flight from China's coronavirus zone rerouted to March Air Reserve Base
On Jan. 29, President Donald Trump announced that he was forming a coronavirus task force made up of top health, transportation, and national security officials. The team will coordinate efforts to respond to coronavirus and work to prevent the virus from spreading.