The S&P 500 ended up down EOY over 2014, the Obama Malaise has been a huge wart now on the economy and no doubt he will do some more nutjob and Venezuela style executive "actions" and NSA snooping on Congress and IRS political persecution and such bureaucratic stink bombs that will cause problems for the domestic and world economy where literally slavery is now alive and well thanks to Hillary, Obama, McCain and Paul Ryan and Pelosi and the others, and the under class will continue to grow and suffer under their Brasilian "leadership".
But there is a big picture that can help formulate a "strategy" into the first Quarter of 2016. Hopefully Trump will win the election at the end of 2016 and the economy, exports, GDP and real jobs will take off. Until then... this is going to be a crazy-ride into 2016.
For what it is worth, my gut is:
Tough currency headwind in the international market continues to pose challenges affecting US sales of the promising medical devices, good consumer discretionary sector, and of course the risky energy sector. For example, the expansion of US based medical devices into India which is promising, or exports of US oil products abroad, are impacted negatively by a strong dollar, but also impacted by confusion and difficult compliance when all international currencies are rapidly fluctuating making pricing quotation difficult and import/export laws and international licensing of products or services difficult to commit to a fixed set of time such as "one year license".
Yet, of the two, the consumer discretionary, and the sale of new medical devices has great promise in 2016 but future development is tampered by government provided healthcare domestically in the US that is always seeking "stability" over "change" to control costs and negates an incentive for research, and in the energy oil sectors there continues the most negative currents to swim against. One factor is the rise in interest rates, some sectors such as fraking or shale borrow money as part of ongoing business and this will become more expensive and unless the price per barrel rises the minimum payments of borrowing already in the planning becomes tenuous to meet, small operations may shutdown, support infrastructure even for large operations may change business focus or even fail.
The upside, we are seeing the collapse of the Left all over the world and in Central and South America - also the beginning of the end of leftism in Europe with disgraceful creatures such as Merkel (Time Mag Front cover gal, no one reads Time but we have to look at the face of that cretin Merkel every time we shop for dirty lettuce with e-coli from human crap and who is invading her own country with armies from abroad and who go about saying "I can't believe the people vote for (Trump, New Right in Europe, et all) which really means "I can't believe people are allowed to vote"))...
You need to monitor the dollar via UUP and UDN not to buy them but just watch the strength of the dollar, as well as foreign currency fluctuations - a lot of work, but you can do it.
The strong dollar and weak major global economies will hit the trade sector hard, lowering US exports. With the Fed tightening and the European Central Bank easing central banking policy, this will strengthen the dollar more and pressure companies doing business abroad in a negative way.
The number one driver for down swings in the market will continue to be energy - all sectors and not just oil are impacted by any one negative downturn, utilities can suffer, and downturns in materials and industrials as well as alternative energy. Yet, another factor - war in the ME and anywhere in the world actually, can impact the bloated supply of cheap oil and the benefactor would be Russia. The price per share of some oil companies could spike upward for those which have reserves and upstream.
Watch out, the pay-TV companies will hike prices in 2016 amid the rise of "cord-cutting" transformation that involves disconnecting cable TV service and substituting it with Internet video. Cable TV providers Rising programming costs, especially those for live sports, are effecting the bottom line and they will pass these costs onto consumers. Due to rising costs for the consumers who will be facing turmoil due to rising interest rates, many cunsumers of cable will become angry. Those who use sports entertainment may turn more to online sports, and gaming systems. Viewers will cut back on packages.
However the Cable segments that provide video services themselves as feeds to Cable cumpanies, or the enablement of the infrastructure of video services into cable providers, will benefit with likely sharp rises in growth and profit.
Gamblers may find cheap buys in energy stocks and gold mining companies any of which could spike due to world turmoil but are cheap due to strong dollar or over supply. So-called "penny stocks", e.g. under $5 dollars per share, look interesting to gamblers if they seem to be a troubled business but one that could survive the storm and then pay great dividend on the upswing. It may be wise to have some investment in these with money you are willing to lose but could provide huge gains later - or even suddenly during world turmoil. But war itself is not cheap, and will hurt in a big way other sectors, actually it is a myth that "Wall Street" wants war, no way. Better if we just carpet bomb the wiggly centipedes now than later. But probably won't happen unless Russia does it, and Iran is about to flood the market with their oil thanks to Obama, and the Saudis cannot cut back and who blames them? They are in a bind as far as cash - so they have no choice but to continue production to get cash to their people even though a cut back would pump the price up.
But there is a big picture that can help formulate a "strategy" into the first Quarter of 2016. Hopefully Trump will win the election at the end of 2016 and the economy, exports, GDP and real jobs will take off. Until then... this is going to be a crazy-ride into 2016.
For what it is worth, my gut is:
Tough currency headwind in the international market continues to pose challenges affecting US sales of the promising medical devices, good consumer discretionary sector, and of course the risky energy sector. For example, the expansion of US based medical devices into India which is promising, or exports of US oil products abroad, are impacted negatively by a strong dollar, but also impacted by confusion and difficult compliance when all international currencies are rapidly fluctuating making pricing quotation difficult and import/export laws and international licensing of products or services difficult to commit to a fixed set of time such as "one year license".
Yet, of the two, the consumer discretionary, and the sale of new medical devices has great promise in 2016 but future development is tampered by government provided healthcare domestically in the US that is always seeking "stability" over "change" to control costs and negates an incentive for research, and in the energy oil sectors there continues the most negative currents to swim against. One factor is the rise in interest rates, some sectors such as fraking or shale borrow money as part of ongoing business and this will become more expensive and unless the price per barrel rises the minimum payments of borrowing already in the planning becomes tenuous to meet, small operations may shutdown, support infrastructure even for large operations may change business focus or even fail.
The upside, we are seeing the collapse of the Left all over the world and in Central and South America - also the beginning of the end of leftism in Europe with disgraceful creatures such as Merkel (Time Mag Front cover gal, no one reads Time but we have to look at the face of that cretin Merkel every time we shop for dirty lettuce with e-coli from human crap and who is invading her own country with armies from abroad and who go about saying "I can't believe the people vote for (Trump, New Right in Europe, et all) which really means "I can't believe people are allowed to vote"))...
You need to monitor the dollar via UUP and UDN not to buy them but just watch the strength of the dollar, as well as foreign currency fluctuations - a lot of work, but you can do it.
The strong dollar and weak major global economies will hit the trade sector hard, lowering US exports. With the Fed tightening and the European Central Bank easing central banking policy, this will strengthen the dollar more and pressure companies doing business abroad in a negative way.
The number one driver for down swings in the market will continue to be energy - all sectors and not just oil are impacted by any one negative downturn, utilities can suffer, and downturns in materials and industrials as well as alternative energy. Yet, another factor - war in the ME and anywhere in the world actually, can impact the bloated supply of cheap oil and the benefactor would be Russia. The price per share of some oil companies could spike upward for those which have reserves and upstream.
Watch out, the pay-TV companies will hike prices in 2016 amid the rise of "cord-cutting" transformation that involves disconnecting cable TV service and substituting it with Internet video. Cable TV providers Rising programming costs, especially those for live sports, are effecting the bottom line and they will pass these costs onto consumers. Due to rising costs for the consumers who will be facing turmoil due to rising interest rates, many cunsumers of cable will become angry. Those who use sports entertainment may turn more to online sports, and gaming systems. Viewers will cut back on packages.
However the Cable segments that provide video services themselves as feeds to Cable cumpanies, or the enablement of the infrastructure of video services into cable providers, will benefit with likely sharp rises in growth and profit.
Gamblers may find cheap buys in energy stocks and gold mining companies any of which could spike due to world turmoil but are cheap due to strong dollar or over supply. So-called "penny stocks", e.g. under $5 dollars per share, look interesting to gamblers if they seem to be a troubled business but one that could survive the storm and then pay great dividend on the upswing. It may be wise to have some investment in these with money you are willing to lose but could provide huge gains later - or even suddenly during world turmoil. But war itself is not cheap, and will hurt in a big way other sectors, actually it is a myth that "Wall Street" wants war, no way. Better if we just carpet bomb the wiggly centipedes now than later. But probably won't happen unless Russia does it, and Iran is about to flood the market with their oil thanks to Obama, and the Saudis cannot cut back and who blames them? They are in a bind as far as cash - so they have no choice but to continue production to get cash to their people even though a cut back would pump the price up.
