Civilization-States

[The Hammer]

The linked PDF of an NYT piece makes an interesting prediction on how he thinks the post pandemic world is going to look, and why Putin is engaging Ukraine.

He believes that the world post pandemic will enter a 50+year phase of self imposed isolation, into what he calls Civilization States. Such as a Pan-European, Pan-North Am., and a Pan-Russian blocs. That only partially interact with each other, but keep many barriers in place for self imposed isolation and internal nation building.

What do you think? I have a feeling he is spot on.

 

[Stevicus]

The linked PDF of an NYT piece makes an interesting prediction on how he thinks the post pandemic world is going to look, and why Putin is engaging Ukraine.

He believes that the world post pandemic will enter a 50+year phase of self imposed isolation, into what he calls Civilization States. Such as a Pan-European, Pan-North Am., and a Pan-Russian blocs. That only partially interact with each other, but keep many barriers in place for self imposed isolation and internal nation building.

What do you think? I have a feeling he is spot on.

It's possible. The world may be grouped together into regional power blocs.

The main problem with the world seems to be that there's a publicly stated desire on the part of all governments to have a peaceful world where nations respect each other's borders and sovereign rights. Since WW2 and the founding of the United Nations, most of the nations of the world have participated in that global system, to one degree or another.

In practice, what has ended up happening is that the larger, more powerful nations still end up holding dominance and hegemony over the smaller, weaker nations.

The interesting thing about it is that, ever since WW2, we never really had any direct conflict or any territorial dispute with either China or Russia. If we had just been dealing with them - and only them - then there would have been no cause for any conflict or Cold War with either country.

It's the smaller countries where the problems seem to crop up: Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, Iraq, Afghanistan - just to name a few.

 

[F1fan]

I can see Russia being isolated with limited trade agreements for the next decade, or until Putin dies or is replaced. Next fall will be telling as Europe needs heating fuels.

So far this year the two F1 races have been packed and looking back to normal. I'm not sure this reflects a post pandemic model as suggested above. Tomorrow the Australia weekend begins.

Wait, it's already tomorrow there.

 

[Truthseeker]

The linked PDF of an NYT piece makes an interesting prediction on how he thinks the post pandemic world is going to look, and why Putin is engaging Ukraine.

He believes that the world post pandemic will enter a 50+year phase of self imposed isolation, into what he calls Civilization States. Such as a Pan-European, Pan-North Am., and a Pan-Russian blocs. That only partially interact with each other, but keep many barriers in place for self imposed isolation and internal nation building.

What do you think? I have a feeling he is spot on.

This opinion is out of date with what has happened since then, but I consider it likely that Russia will become a vassal of China as he says. His power will be lessened, not enhanced. From the moves that China has made since then, I think that is China's aim.

 

[PureX]

So far, greed has overcome any hither to inclination to isolate from the world. And I see no reason to expect this to change. Unless the pandemic kills many more than it has so far, it will be back to business as usual.

 

[Kooky]

What do you think? I have a feeling he is spot on.

It appears to me like a recently re-heated version of Huntington's Clash of Civilizations.
The necessity of global trade and, therefore, global information exchange wouldn't make this feasible or workable, I would say.

With that said, as global climate change is going to increase resource scarcity all across the world but especially in areas that are already disadvantaged, we can expect further increases in regional conflict, and further drift towards authoritarianism and fascism.