Brexit isn't possible

[Augustus]

In the next referendum, anyone who voted "no" in order to ensure that Scotland stayed in the EU will be voting "yes." Just that alone I think is enough to tip the scales toward independence. Throw in a year or two of post-Brexit food or medication shortages and I think Scottish independence will be pretty much a sure thing.

Scotland being fast-tracked into the EU certainly isn't a sure thing though, Spain for one has a strong incentive to make it as difficult as possible.

Cultural issues aside, it seems to me that there are large parts of the UK that would prefer to jump into some sort of lifeboat than to go down with the ship.

Or perhaps the UK will benefit from being the first off a sinking ship.

The EU might not survive the next financial crisis, as it is largely incapable of learning from its mistakes due to the influence of 'every closer union' (i.e. liberal European Empire) ideologues in Brussels.

People get so caught up in the idea of Europe that they rarely focus on how badly run it is, how undemocratic, how much unnecessary crap gets tacked onto the useful bits and how increased centralisation in an increasingly complex system tends to make for fragility.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

The UK is not any member. It is the UK...so they have the right to decide which kind of relations they want to have with the EU.

Period

Sorry...what?

 

[lewisnotmiller]

I think the more likely outcome is that Brexit will end up pushing Northern Ireland to separate from the UK and join the Republic. Then, the Brexiteers will get their hard (well, wet) border between the UK and Ireland.

The trickier problem will be how to manage the border between England and Scotland once Scotland separates to re-join the EU.

Oof...that would be quite the event...

 

[lewisnotmiller]

Most people don't care about technicalities that don't directly affect them.



By having border control in NI.

But...that's the issue.
How familiar with Irish history are you?
(I don't mean that in a patronizing fashion, just that it's a major factor in why border control in NI is a very real issue)

 

[ChristineM]

The UK is not any member. It is the UK...so they have the right to decide which kind of relations they want to have with the EU.

Period

At the risk of the irish troubles rearing there nasty head

Guess where

Syria?
Yemen?
Other?

Spoiler: Answer

Manchester UK (yes the still standing red post box was s clue)

 

[lewisnotmiller]

A clean Brexit isn't, anyway.

I wonder how leavers apparantly never really understood this.

They want to leave the EU customs union and single market, but they don't want to have any borders....
Completely leaving the union, 100%, while NOT being subject to EU regulations etc means a hard border in Ireland. That blows up the Good Friday agreements.

I look at the british leaver politicians and I see that most of them are over 40. I don't know their exact ages, but many have grey hair etc. So many are 50-60. I guess that goes for most "top" politicians. 23 year olds don't start at the top, after all.

Why is this relevant? Well.... The good friday treaty dates from 1998. Meaning that many of them were around 30 at the time. I'ld think that these people especially would understand the sensitivities and implications of this treaty and what it means for border checks.

Yet it seems all of them had a collective case of amnesia.

They don't want a border in Ireland.
They don't want a border down the Irish sea.
They don't want a backstop.
They don't want a Northern Ireland only backstop.
But they want to leave the EU in full.

I mean, what the fudge?

Leaving the EU customs union and the single market inevitably means borders and borders checks.
It means the border in Ireland becomes the new EU outer border.

Didn't these leavers think about this before hand? Or did they and they just don't care to blow up the good friday treaty?

It seems to me that the good friday treaty, literally BLOCKS the UK from leaving the EU.
Blowing up EU membership (in full) inevitably leads to blowing up that treaty. The only reason this treaty was even possible, is because the UK is a EU member. It depends on it.

The UK can not leave the EU customs unions and single market in full, if that treaty needs to be upheld - which it does.

If this treaty didn't exist and there were no "Troubles" in Ireland, the UK would have left long ago. There wouldn't have been a problem. Hard border in Ireland for EU border customs checks and boom, done.
But this isn't possible.

It's not that the UK can't leave the EU per say.
It's that it's bound by another, rather vital, treaty, which seems to depend on the UK being a EU member.
It doesn't look like the UK can fully withdraw from the EU, without blowing up that other treaty.

I'ld like to hear from our british friends here, how they see this impasse...

Are you really surprised that British issues involving the RoI and NI are kind of in the 'too hard to think about' bucket?
Still, interesting OP.

 

[oldbadger]

A clean Brexit isn't, anyway.

I wonder how leavers apparantly never really understood this.

They want to leave the EU customs union and single market, but they don't want to have any borders....
Completely leaving the union, 100%, while NOT being subject to EU regulations etc means a hard border in Ireland. That blows up the Good Friday agreements.

I look at the british leaver politicians and I see that most of them are over 40. I don't know their exact ages, but many have grey hair etc. So many are 50-60. I guess that goes for most "top" politicians. 23 year olds don't start at the top, after all.

Why is this relevant? Well.... The good friday treaty dates from 1998. Meaning that many of them were around 30 at the time. I'ld think that these people especially would understand the sensitivities and implications of this treaty and what it means for border checks.

Yet it seems all of them had a collective case of amnesia.

They don't want a border in Ireland.
They don't want a border down the Irish sea.
They don't want a backstop.
They don't want a Northern Ireland only backstop.
But they want to leave the EU in full.

I mean, what the fudge?

Leaving the EU customs union and the single market inevitably means borders and borders checks.
It means the border in Ireland becomes the new EU outer border.

Didn't these leavers think about this before hand? Or did they and they just don't care to blow up the good friday treaty?

It seems to me that the good friday treaty, literally BLOCKS the UK from leaving the EU.
Blowing up EU membership (in full) inevitably leads to blowing up that treaty. The only reason this treaty was even possible, is because the UK is a EU member. It depends on it.

The UK can not leave the EU customs unions and single market in full, if that treaty needs to be upheld - which it does.

If this treaty didn't exist and there were no "Troubles" in Ireland, the UK would have left long ago. There wouldn't have been a problem. Hard border in Ireland for EU border customs checks and boom, done.
But this isn't possible.

It's not that the UK can't leave the EU per say.
It's that it's bound by another, rather vital, treaty, which seems to depend on the UK being a EU member.
It doesn't look like the UK can fully withdraw from the EU, without blowing up that other treaty.

I'ld like to hear from our british friends here, how they see this impasse...

I think that you are right.
I did vote to leave, based upon the claims of so many experts.
But it won't happen for your own and other reasons. We are as joined to Europe now as Texas is to the US, I reckon

 

[Augustus]

But...that's the issue.
How familiar with Irish history are you?
(I don't mean that in a patronizing fashion, just that it's a major factor in why border control in NI is a very real issue)

Was really a reply to the idea it wouldn't get passed as it was unpopular with the UK electorate.

In terms of voting, it's an issue for a small % of the UK's population mostly confined to a section of the population in NI and Western Central Scotland.

Other than that it's not going to be very high on the list of what people care about.

 

[Yerda]

Scotland being fast-tracked into the EU certainly isn't a sure thing though, Spain for one has a strong incentive to make it as difficult as possible.

The EU might use Scotland as a warning to Spain. Leave the EU and we'll take a bit and keep it. Anyway, I don't see Spain being quite so energetically against Scotland joining now the UK is leaving but I'm completely bewildered by almost everything in politics at the moment so I might be wrong.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

Was really a reply to the idea it wouldn't get passed as it was unpopular with the UK electorate.

In terms of voting, it's an issue for a small % of the UK's population mostly confined to a section of the population in NI and Western Central Scotland.

Other than that it's not going to be very high on the list of what people care about.

I think it's already so difficult to pass on Parliament, and similarly so divisive in the general population that this IS a major blocker.
Both the leavers and the remainers in NI appear unhappy with this deal. My general assertion is that there is no position that will be acceptable to the EU and to the NI population (including re-unification of the RoI).

Who would have thought splitting a country 100 years ago would prove so divisive?
(Said with tongue in cheek)

I do have some curiosity what happens in 2 years, on the anniversary of the separation actually.

 

[Augustus]

I think it's already so difficult to pass on Parliament, and similarly so divisive in the general population that this IS a major blocker.
Both the leavers and the remainers in NI appear unhappy with this deal. My general assertion is that there is no position that will be acceptable to the EU and to the NI population (including re-unification of the RoI).

The strange thing is it would be the most ridiculously good deal for NI.

It would uniquely be in both the EU and UK and Belfast would become a significant financial centre for this reason as many City firms would open offices there as would numerous other businesses.

In terms of competitive advantage it would be great.

I do have some curiosity what happens in 2 years, on the anniversary of the separation actually.

Slightly more posturing from both sides probably.

Commemorations of the independence movement, a more showy marching season, an overstated 12th, etc.

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

So this is the leverage that has compelled the UK to submit to the ever closer union? Maybe after all the EU will become a sovereign state with the UK as one of its members. I guess the UK has no choice but to acquiesce and forget its independent nature.

This isn't really about the EU though...
It's about the UK making impossible demands and having impossible expectations.

And I just don't understand how leaver politicians weren't aware of these issues before hand.
I also wonder how remainer politicians didn't seem to be very much aware of it either.
Maybe I'm mistaken, but I don't recall any side pointing out the difficulties concerning borders and ireland during those brexit campaigns leading upto the referendum.

I think that's just bizar. I wonder what the reason for this is.

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

By having border control in NI.

You mean, the border between northern ireland and the EU? The place where no hard borders are allowed according to the good friday treaty?

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

Or perhaps the UK will benefit from being the first off a sinking ship.

Yes, the brexiteer mantra.
Not a single one of them has ever shown with hard numbers, statistics and evidence how that is true though.

Every study attempting to demonstrate such, ends up showing the opposite: that the UK will be worse off out then in.

The EU might not survive the next financial crisis, as it is largely incapable of learning from its mistakes due to the influence of 'every closer union' (i.e. liberal European Empire) ideologues in Brussels.

People get so caught up in the idea of Europe that they rarely focus on how badly run it is, how undemocratic, how much unnecessary crap gets tacked onto the useful bits and how increased centralisation in an increasingly complex system tends to make for fragility.

You will never hear me say that the EU is perfect and/or doesn't have issues.

I just don't think that throwing the baby out along with the water is the solution.
The EU has more advantages then disadvantages and it is worth the effort to work on it and improve what is wrong with it, instead of blowing the whole thing up.

 

[Estro Felino]

Yes, the brexiteer mantra.
Not a single one of them has ever shown with hard numbers, statistics and evidence how that is true though.

Every study attempting to demonstrate such, ends up showing the opposite: that the UK will be worse off out then in.



You will never hear me say that the EU is perfect and/or doesn't have issues.

I just don't think that throwing the baby out along with the water is the solution.
The EU has more advantages then disadvantages and it is worth the effort to work on it and improve what is wrong with it, instead of blowing the whole thing up.

Maybe there is one thing you forget. Britain is leaving because it is a Franco-German dictatorship...and if it doesn't change the Scandinavian countries will be the next to leave.

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

Other than that it's not going to be very high on the list of what people care about.

I'm guessing it will be if and when bombs start exploding again.

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

I think it's already so difficult to pass on Parliament, and similarly so divisive in the general population that this IS a major blocker.
Both the leavers and the remainers in NI appear unhappy with this deal. My general assertion is that there is no position that will be acceptable to the EU and to the NI population (including re-unification of the RoI).

Who would have thought splitting a country 100 years ago would prove so divisive?
(Said with tongue in cheek)

I do have some curiosity what happens in 2 years, on the anniversary of the separation actually.

The issue goes even deeper, actually.
It's not just the risk of what will happen on the island of Ireland.

It's also the US that has already publicly stated that any breach of the good friday agreements will automatically result in NO trade deal with the US.

Brexiteers boast about how they don't need the EU, because they're going to make a "great deal" with Trump's US. I guess they really like chlorine chickens.

Then there's also Johnson who claims that the NHS will "never" be on the table in any trade deal. I guess he doesn't realise that his negotiating partner will be Trumpy. Opening up the public health market for american companies, will literally be his first criteria. It will be the ante of the negotiations. No access to the health care market and there will be no trade deal.

So even IF they somehow manage to comply to good friday, all they will accomplish is being a puppet for Trump. They leave the EU "to take back control", only to end up handing over even MORE control to the US. The UK will effectively become the 51st virtual state.

But aside from that.... I don't even see it being possible to make a deal with the US. Because of - again - the good friday agreement.

It's really simple, actually...

In order for the UK to be ABLE to make their own trade deal with the US, the UK MUST leave the customs union and single market. This, because the EU doesn't want any chlorine chickens on their territory.

But leaving that custom union and single market, inevitably means a border in ireland, which means no US trade deal because it blows up good friday.

A northern ireland only backstop, would effectively break up the UK in the sense that the US trade deal won't count for NI - at least not in terms of import.

It's all a very strange situation and I am absolutely BAFFLED that guys like Johnson supposedly don't realise this. I don't buy that for a second, honestly. I think they realise it all very well. It's near impossible that they don't. But then I can only wonder.... why do they press ahead, knowing it will lead to such impasses?

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

Maybe there is one thing ypu forget. Britain is leaving because it is a Franco-German dictatorship...and if it doesn't change the Scandinavian countries will be the next to leave.

Another one of those statements which is just air.

 

[Estro Felino]

Another one of those statements which is just air.

Answer me sincerely. If Marine Le Pen is elected President and Salvini PM...what do you think will happen to this EU?

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

Answer me sincerely. If Marine Le Pen is elected President and Salvini PM...what do you think will happen to this EU?

Moving the goalposts I see. Your statement was about the EU being some "franco-german dictatorship".
That's what I called just air. Now, you're moving to a "what if" question instead...

Idiots like Le Pen being elected president won't be good for ANYTHING. The EU, France itself, the world.
Just like an idiot like Trump being elected was bad for the US, Nato, the world.

If you are going to try and judge the merrits of a united europe by asking what-if questions like "what if the worst possible people get elected".... What do you want me to tell you?
Yes, if bs idiots get elected, it won't be good for anything - including the EU.