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Brexit isn't possible

Discussion in 'European Politics' started by TagliatelliMonster, Oct 21, 2019.

  1. TagliatelliMonster

    TagliatelliMonster Well-Known Member

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    A clean Brexit isn't, anyway.

    I wonder how leavers apparantly never really understood this.

    They want to leave the EU customs union and single market, but they don't want to have any borders....
    Completely leaving the union, 100%, while NOT being subject to EU regulations etc means a hard border in Ireland. That blows up the Good Friday agreements.

    I look at the british leaver politicians and I see that most of them are over 40. I don't know their exact ages, but many have grey hair etc. So many are 50-60. I guess that goes for most "top" politicians. 23 year olds don't start at the top, after all.

    Why is this relevant? Well.... The good friday treaty dates from 1998. Meaning that many of them were around 30 at the time. I'ld think that these people especially would understand the sensitivities and implications of this treaty and what it means for border checks.

    Yet it seems all of them had a collective case of amnesia.

    They don't want a border in Ireland.
    They don't want a border down the Irish sea.
    They don't want a backstop.
    They don't want a Northern Ireland only backstop.
    But they want to leave the EU in full.

    I mean, what the fudge?

    Leaving the EU customs union and the single market inevitably means borders and borders checks.
    It means the border in Ireland becomes the new EU outer border.

    Didn't these leavers think about this before hand? Or did they and they just don't care to blow up the good friday treaty?

    It seems to me that the good friday treaty, literally BLOCKS the UK from leaving the EU.
    Blowing up EU membership (in full) inevitably leads to blowing up that treaty. The only reason this treaty was even possible, is because the UK is a EU member. It depends on it.

    The UK can not leave the EU customs unions and single market in full, if that treaty needs to be upheld - which it does.

    If this treaty didn't exist and there were no "Troubles" in Ireland, the UK would have left long ago. There wouldn't have been a problem. Hard border in Ireland for EU border customs checks and boom, done.
    But this isn't possible.

    It's not that the UK can't leave the EU per say.
    It's that it's bound by another, rather vital, treaty, which seems to depend on the UK being a EU member.
    It doesn't look like the UK can fully withdraw from the EU, without blowing up that other treaty.

    I'ld like to hear from our british friends here, how they see this impasse...
     
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  2. Augustus

    Augustus the Unreasonable

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    Create a special economic zone that covers NI. They exist in many places.

    Special economic zone - Wikipedia
    Free-trade zone - Wikipedia
     
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  3. TagliatelliMonster

    TagliatelliMonster Well-Known Member

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    This zone would have to comply to EU regulations. That's what the backstop was. The EU actually first proposed a Northern Ireland only backstop and the DUP/ UK didn't want any of it because it meant a hard border down the irish sea.

    Regardless of names, the implications stay the same.
    There needs to be control about what and who enters and leaves the EU.
    No borders in Ireland means that Northern Ireland needs to comply to EU rules and regulations. Aka the backstop.

    However you turn it, however you name it: there HAS to be a border *somewhere* where controls and checks happen on what goes in and out, where the EU can do its own independent work.. The only other alternative is staying in the customs union and single market.

    It's about goods and people entering and leaving the EU and UK.

    It seems to me that there are only 2 possibilities

    1. Either they stay in the customs union and single market and no borders are necessary (but this comes with implications, off course - this makes it impossible for the UK to get their own trade agreement with the US for example).

    2. Or have a hard border with proper controls and checks.

    These are the only two options, it seems to me, which would be able to protect the internal market and control the flow of goods and people for both the UK as well as the EU.
     
  4. Estro Felino

    Estro Felino Believer in free will
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    The UK is not any member. It is the UK...so they have the right to decide which kind of relations they want to have with the EU.

    Period
     
  5. TagliatelliMonster

    TagliatelliMonster Well-Known Member

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    And the EU gets no say in that?
    And earlier treaties, like the good friday agreement, are to be ignored in the process?

    What the UK wants, is something they can't have.
    They want fully out of the EU, but they don't want borders.

    It's one or the other, not both.

    Borders at the actual border would violate good friday.
    Borders in the irish sea are a no-go for UK
    Staying in the customs union / single market, either in full or NI only, is a no-go for the UK.

    That's an impasse. Because it has to be one of those.
    If they crash out with no deal, it inevitably means a hard border in ireland.

    Seriously, did no leaver consider this?
     
    #5 TagliatelliMonster, Oct 21, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2019
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  6. Augustus

    Augustus the Unreasonable

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    Why does it make a trade agreement impossible if NI has a soft border with RoI?

    Not necessarily
     
  7. Estro Felino

    Estro Felino Believer in free will
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    You are Belgian. You have a vision of Europe which is completely different than mine.

    In my vision opportunistic reasoning does not belong.
     
  8. TagliatelliMonster

    TagliatelliMonster Well-Known Member

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    Because there needs to be control concerning that that which enters and leaves the EU/UK, complies with the rules set out in the agreement. The only context where such controls and checks aren't necessary, is if the north is subject to the same regulations and rules as all other members of the EU.

    And this limits the UK's ability to make deals with other countries.
    If they make a deal that allows the US to export chlorine chickens to the UK, then the EU needs to be sure that those chlorine chickens don't enter the EU.

    How do you enforce that, without border control?


    Few weeks after the referendum, the EU proposed a northern ireland only backstop to May, which would draw a border down the irish sea and leaving NI subject to EU customs and regulations.

    I believe May's exact words were that "no prime minister could ever accept such a border splitting the union".

    Johnson has landed on basically that exact deal now, with some semantic and technical changes. It doesn't seem to be received very well in the rest of the UK. I don't think it'll ever pass.
     
  9. TagliatelliMonster

    TagliatelliMonster Well-Known Member

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    What does that have to do with the border issues and how it would violate good friday in the UK?

    What is "opportunistic" here? I'm just asking questions.......................

    The main questions being: how did leavers see this working? Didn't they think about this before?
    Didn't they realise that leaving the EU in full, so that they were free to make their own trade deals with 3rd parties, would necessarily have to mean that they would share a hard border with the EU?

    And that that border, would by default violate the good friday treaty? or that it would otherwise have to be in the irish sea which would necessarily mean that NI would not be able to leave the customs union and single market, in practice?


    Sure, I think the UK makes a mistake by leaving. But my opinion is not what this thread is about.
    This thread is about the border issue questions I have.

    What was the plan of the leavers? How did they see this?

    Because from where I sit, it indeed looks like they expected to be able to leave in full and not have any borders. That just doesn't make any sense to me.
     
    #9 TagliatelliMonster, Oct 21, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2019
  10. 9-10ths_Penguin

    9-10ths_Penguin 1/10 Riboflavin
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    [​IMG]
     
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  11. Brickjectivity

    Brickjectivity Veteran Member
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    So this is the leverage that has compelled the UK to submit to the ever closer union? Maybe after all the EU will become a sovereign state with the UK as one of its members. I guess the UK has no choice but to acquiesce and forget its independent nature.
     
  12. 9-10ths_Penguin

    9-10ths_Penguin 1/10 Riboflavin
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    I think the more likely outcome is that Brexit will end up pushing Northern Ireland to separate from the UK and join the Republic. Then, the Brexiteers will get their hard (well, wet) border between the UK and Ireland.

    The trickier problem will be how to manage the border between England and Scotland once Scotland separates to re-join the EU.
     
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  13. Brickjectivity

    Brickjectivity Veteran Member
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    It will be interesting to watch what happens, but I am sympathetic toward those who want to preserve English-ness, Welsh-ness, Irish-ness, Scottish-ness. I like the accents and the quirks and culture. They have their own comedians and ideas and processes. One of the nice things about Europe is that its got these parcels you can travel to where things change. Its like a huge theme park. They speak this language here and that language there, and everywhere you go things change. Its not like here in the States where everywhere you go people are increasingly all the same.
     
  14. 9-10ths_Penguin

    9-10ths_Penguin 1/10 Riboflavin
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    I was thinking about it from a different perspective: Northern Ireland and Scotland are regions that voted overwhelmingly against Brexit and have a degree of self-government as it is, so they're able to do things like negotiate for independence. Cultural issues aside, it seems to me that there are large parts of the UK that would prefer to jump into some sort of lifeboat than to go down with the ship. The City of London probably falls into this category as well, but I can't realistically see England letting London separate.

    Northern Ireland and Scotland leaving, though... that's plausible.
     
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  15. sun rise

    sun rise "Let there be peace and love among all"
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    I do enjoy people celebrating their cultural heritage.

    But the OP nailed the issue. Those opposing the EU don't really care what happens NOW. But if they get what they want, look out. The whining will be louder than a jet engine at full throttle.
     
  16. Brickjectivity

    Brickjectivity Veteran Member
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    I do think they will eventually separate from Britain, but I've no political instincts about it. I just think that if so much time has passed and they still feel swallowed then its probably inevitable.

    ***typing mistake corrected left out 'no' before***
     
  17. 9-10ths_Penguin

    9-10ths_Penguin 1/10 Riboflavin
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    Scotland just barely voted to remain in the most recent (pre-Brexit) independence referendum, back when staying in the UK meant staying in the EU, and EU membership of an independent Scotland wasn't seen as an automatic thing.

    In the next referendum, anyone who voted "no" in order to ensure that Scotland stayed in the EU will be voting "yes." Just that alone I think is enough to tip the scales toward independence. Throw in a year or two of post-Brexit food or medication shortages and I think Scottish independence will be pretty much a sure thing.
     
  18. Augustus

    Augustus the Unreasonable

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    Most people don't care about technicalities that don't directly affect them.

    By having border control in NI.
     
  19. Brickjectivity

    Brickjectivity Veteran Member
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    Sometimes moving in with friends makes you aware of how much you enjoy having your own place.
     
  20. Jaiket

    Jaiket Well-Known Member

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    The UK could get shot of N. Ireland.
     
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