An Unholy Guide to Pascal's Wager

[Mock Turtle]

And if you invented a time machine and wiped your memory then this could apply to you, unfortunately until that point arrives this is not really relevant.



Disbelieving or 'leaving up in the air' are decisions you make as is explained in the scientific literature I linked to previously.

"Believing is not a two-stage process involving first understanding then believing. Instead understanding is believing, a fraction of a second after reading it, you believe it until some other critical faculty kicks in to change your mind."

Also, in some situations (like this one) there is no practical difference between the 2 positions.

So how would I make a decision for which I have no relevant knowledge? Not believing the religious guff since that I believe is just human created and without any solid basis. Would any decision have any meaning for me? Whatever happens, I will live my life according to how I think humans should behave, regardless of any religious beliefs, and have done so.

The wager stills remains a pointless exercise for me.

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

Not according to the science (you can later adopt such a position, but it is a decision not an abstention from making a decision). It's quite funny how 'Rationalists' frequently dismiss out of hand any scholarship that goes against their prior assumptions though.

I'd be happy to read any scientific scholarship you have on the subject which shows otherwise, until then I'll go with the likes of Dan Gilbert and Daniel Kahneman over random chap off of the internet.

So which was it: odd or even?

Edit: I'm not dismissing your position; in fact, I'm taking it as given. For the purposes of discussion, I'll assume that you're correct and that once a person becomes aware of a proposition, they necessarily accept it as true or reject it as false.

And now you've become aware of the proposition that the number of gumballs in the jar in that photo is even, so I'd like to know whether you've accepted this proposition as true or rejected it as false. I'll take your word for it that there are no other options.

 

[Subduction Zone]

Not according to the science (you can later adopt such a position, but it is a decision not an abstention from making a decision). It's quite funny how 'Rationalists' frequently dismiss out of hand any scholarship that goes against their prior assumptions though.

I'd be happy to read any scientific scholarship you have on the subject which shows otherwise, until then I'll go with the likes of Dan Gilbert and Daniel Kahneman over random chap off of the internet.

What science requires one to make a decision when there is not enough data to do so?

 

[Augustus]

What science requires one to make a decision when there is not enough data to do so?

It's the human brain that does that, not science. The science just shows it happens.

We wouldn't have lasted too long as a species if we only made decisions when we had been presented with sufficiently robust data on which to do so with a high degree of accuracy.

 

[Augustus]

So which was it: odd or even?

Why is this even important? I'd still be making a decision regardless which was the issue at hand.

Do you believe that there is an even number of gumballs?

If not, you must believe that there is an odd number of gumballs, right?

Posing these as questions seems to suggest you have missed the point.

Here's a jar of gumballs

Agreed.

 

[Augustus]

So how would I make a decision for which I have no relevant knowledge?

Very easily, you do it multiple times every single day after all.

Not believing the religious guff since that I believe is just human created and without any solid basis. Would any decision have any meaning for me? Whatever happens, I will live my life according to how I think humans should behave, regardless of any religious beliefs, and have done so.

The point is you are making a decision, even if that decision is 'this is just religious guff so I'm not going to waste my time with it'.

The wager stills remains a pointless exercise for me.

Which is your decision, the one you were complaining about being 'forced' to make.

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

Why is this even important? I'd still be making a decision regardless which was the issue at hand.

It's just a simple test case. If you're right, then you believe the number to either be even or not even (i.e. odd). You do not hold "no position."

I'm not sure why you're keeping your specific position secret, but regardless: do you at least acknowledge that your argument implies that you have necessarily adopted the belief that the number is odd or the belief that it's even? Do you agree that "I take no position" isn't an option that's available to you?

Posing these as questions seems to suggest you have missed the point.

Or is it that you've missed mine?

 

[Augustus]

Or is it that you've missed mine?

No doubt, you do appear to be barking up the wrong tree after all.

do you at least acknowledge that your argument implies that you have necessarily adopted the belief that the number is odd or the belief that it's even? Do you agree that "I take no position" isn't an option that's available to you?

Not at all, read the scientific papers if you want a better understanding.

I do acknowledge that I must take a position though, but not that there are only 2 options.

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

I do acknowledge that I must take a position though, but not that there are only 2 options.

If you’ve come up with a way for the quantity of a whole number of countable objects to be something other than even or odd, I’d love to hear it.

 

[Trailblazer]

All this time I have discussed the "Pascalian project" as taking steps with the goal of coming to believe. That isn't quite right in my opinion. The real objective is not necessarily aimed at achieving belief. It is more generally doing whatever it is such that whoever is in charge would approve.

Who else could be in charge besides God?

It may be that belief is essential or that belief is irrelevant as long as you behave properly. I have always thought that makes the most sense.

Hypothetically, it is possible that God only cares how we behave and does not care if you believe in Him. Certainly, good behavior is very important. However, God also wants us to believe in Him and it is only for our own sake, not for His sake. God does not need us but God loves us so God wants what is best for us.

Pascal is going under the assumption that the deity in charge is a "jealous God" which really cares that you believe in Him. That is by no means certain.

That assumption is wrong because God is fully self-sufficient so God does not need anything from humans, let alone our belief. The only reason God wants us to believe in Him is for our benefit.

“Consider the mercy of God and His gifts. He enjoineth upon you that which shall profit you, though He Himself can well dispense with all creatures.”
Gleanings From the Writings of Bahá’u’lláh, p. 140

Leading atheists point this out in an effort to object to Pascal's Wager. I don't think it is a problem with the Wager. It just means that you have to expand the possibilities from the notion that God demands that you believe, to the possibility that maybe god only cares about your behavior.

God really cares about your behavior and that is one reason why God wants you to recognize His Messenger, because what He revealed in His Writings improves your behavior. But also, and this is really important, God wants you to know something about Him, and the only way to know anything about God is from what His Messenger revealsin His Writings and reflects in His Person.

In my religion we have what are called the Twin Duties. The first duty if recognition of the Messenger of God form this age, which is Baha’u’llah. The second duty is adherence to His Laws.

In my case, perhaps I broke with religion when I came to believe in a sort of determinism. I know that I was repulsed that a god would punish someone for doing what (s)he was determined to do by the laws of physics (or the heavy influence of environment). I cannot remember ever really believing in Hell. Heaven? Maybe.

So you do not believe in free will? Free will is an important concept because we cannot be held responsible for our beliefs or actions unless we have free will.

I believe that humans have the will/ability to make choices based upon their desires and preferences. Our desires and preferences come from a combination of factors such as childhood upbringing, heredity, education, adult experiences, and present life circumstances. How free they are varies with the situation. Certainly what we refer to as “free will” has many constraints. However, we have the ability to make moral choices. For example, I can choose to murder my husband or not. Regarding choices that relate to physical needs, we are compelled to eat and sleep, but we can chose what we eat and when and how long we sleep.

If we are not making choices and things are happening, the only other way they could be happening is if someone or something is controlling our behavior.I do not believe God interferes with our free will, although God is All-Powerful, so God could override a choice we want to make and preventing it from becoming and action. But since we can never know if or when that happens, there is no point even thinking about it.

I definitely believe that God takes into account our childhood upbringing, heredity, adult experiences and present life circumstances. Much is this lies outside of our control, so we cannot be held accountable for it. To those whom much is given much is expected. It would not be just for God to have the same expectations of everyone. Baha’u’llah wrote that not all people have the same capacities and each of us shall receive his share from God.

 

[Trailblazer]

Yeah, I'm home now. Just about coping - what with internet shopping and the assistance of some carers, but it's not easy. Apparently another four weeks before the casts come off.

I guess most American homes are a bit more spacious than British ones so that a wheelchair is quite a tight squeeze in many places.

I am glad you are home but sorry to hear it is not easy. Will you be able to walk around when the casts come off? It is amazing how many things we take for granted in life until something like an accident or illness occurs. But at least in your case it is only a temporary inconvenience. I saw a man in the store in front of me in line yesterday and he was in a wheelchair and he had no legs. People just have to adjust to these things and some people do better than others. This life is not that great for everyone and what people think is so great in the material world is just an illusion anyway. It is all so transitory, so fleeting.

I have been very fortunate so far with my physical health but as you know I have not been as fortunate with emotional health. It is a lot better now than ever, but I have a genetic predisposition to depression and anxiety so I will never bean upbeat person. However, I have an inner peace nobody can touch. Also, if I had not suffered so much in life, I would not be who I am today; I would be shallow.

Yes, American homes are generally more spacious. We have a very big house, but you’d never wheel your way around my house because it is so cluttered... That tends to happen when one has 11 cats and all the stuff needed to care for them.

I'm sorry, but whatever proposals are made about any God and/or an afterlife are no concerns for me. As for the quote Man proposes but God disposes, well I dispose of any propositions I can't answer. Hence my leaving the matter alone, and I see no reason to be forced to make a choice. My universe might vary from others. I'm still a believer in free will but I see no relevance to the wager, since no matter how one tries to disprove it, we have to live with what we believe.

I do not like Pascal’s Wager as proposed because it would be dishonest to pretend to believe when you really don’t believe just for a reward. In the Baha’i Faith, we are not supposed to do what we do for a reward in the afterlife, although we know there will be one because it would not be just for God to expect us to believe and follow the teachings and laws of His religion if there was no reward in an afterlife.

“WORSHIP thou God in such wise that if thy worship lead thee to the fire, no alteration in thine adoration would be produced, and so likewise if thy recompense should be paradise.... Fire and paradise both bow down and prostrate themselves before God. That which is worthy of His Essence is to worship Him for His sake, without fear of fire, or hope of paradise.

Although when true worship is offered, the worshipper is delivered from the fire, and entereth the paradise of God’s good-pleasure, yet such should not be the motive of his act. However, God’s favour and grace ever flow in accordance with the exigencies of His inscrutable wisdom.”
Selections From the Writings of the Báb, pp. 77-78

By not making a choice you are making a choice because you are choosing not to believe in God or a religion. However, in my opinion it is better not to choose than to make the wrong choice or to choose to believe in something you do not really believe in, just out of fear. I am very fortunate that I do not have to worry about that because I have a religion I really believe in... Knowing God exists and knowing something about God is half the battle but the other half is loving God and getting close to God. God and I have not had the best relationship.

What others believe is no concern for me. We all no doubt can look at the evidence and make up our minds but what others decide, even if it is a majority view, again doesn't bother me. I just don't think Pascal has a right to say we must choose.

I do not think that Pascal is saying we must choose but rather I think he is saying it is wise to choose, given the stakes are very high. One can choose to believe the stakes are not high if they want to, but that will not change reality. If there is a God who revealed a religion He wants everyone to believe in, then the stakes are very high. What the punishment will be if we choose not to believe in it I cannot say... I can only say what the rewards will be for believing, and only generally, not specifically.

“Death proffereth unto every confident believer the cup that is life indeed. It bestoweth joy, and is the bearer of gladness. It conferreth the gift of everlasting life.

As to those that have tasted of the fruit of man’s earthly existence, which is the recognition of the one true God, exalted be His glory, their life hereafter is such as We are unable to describe. The knowledge thereof is with God, alone, the Lord of all worlds.” Gleanings From the Writings of Bahá’u’lláh, pp. 345-346

Of course I cannot know for certain, but I do not think that God punishes anyone, although He might judge us. I think we inflict punishment upon ourselves.

“He who shall accept and believe, shall receive his reward; and he who shall turn away, shall receive none other than his own punishment.”
Gleanings From the Writings of Bahá’u’lláh, p. 339

Our punishment will come about from our“realization” of what we could have done in life but didn’t do, opportunities we missed. We might have regrets resulting from of what we chose to believe or disbelieve and how that affected the way we lived and our deeds. That applies to this life as well as the afterlife because true loss is not knowing your true self; so nonbelievers suffer by virtue of not knowing the purpose of their existence and what God’s will is for them, even though they do not realize it. The difference is that we can still change our mind in this life because we have free will. We won’t have that in the afterlife so we will have to rely upon the mercy and bounty of God and the prayers of others to make progress.

You are on the right track because it should never be your concern what others believe. Baha’u’llah wrote that.

“If, in the Day when all the peoples of the earth will be gathered together, any man should, whilst standing in the presence of God, be asked: “Wherefore hast thou disbelieved in My Beauty and turned away from My Self,” and if such a man should reply and say: “Inasmuch as all men have erred, and none hath been found willing to turn his face to the Truth, I, too, following their example, have grievously failed to recognize the Beauty of the Eternal,” such a plea will, assuredly, be rejected.For the faith of no man can be conditioned by any one except himself.”
Gleanings From the Writings of Bahá’u’lláh, p. 143

That passage kind of indicates there might be a Judgment, but I cannot say that for certain. God likes to leave us in the lurch about some things. I think He does that to keep us on our toes, even though I do not think it is necessarily fair.

 

[Trailblazer]

Con artists take advantage of this system of thinking in what's often called the "British Lottery" scam:

Congratulations! You've won the British Lottery!

You've won an obscenely large amount of money... more than you could ever hope to spend in your life. To get it, all you have to do is pay an administration fee. The fee is negligible, especially compared to the amount you've won.

It's true that there's no reason at all to assume that this email couldn't be coming from a scammer who will take that fee and run without giving you your "winnings," but since the promised amount is so large and the fee is so small, don't you have to overlook any misgivings and just trust that it's real?

I love this analogy.

Yes, that is what it is, a gamble, because nobody can prove there is an afterlife. However, given the evidence, there is a much better chance that there is than that there isn’t. Do you really want to take that chance?

The thing is that the administration fee is really not all that large, just following teachings and laws of the religion that are beneficial to you anyhow... So it is really a win-win, if you can believe in the God and His religion.

Maybe I sound like believing is as easy as falling off a log, but that is because it was that easy for me. The hard part is trying to figure out exactly what God wants me to do because I tend to be detail-oriented. There are certainly some general guidelines but everyone has to apply those guidelines to their life. But even if I do not follow them perfectly, at least God will know I tried.

 

[Trailblazer]

Would you believe me if I said it was an emergency?

What kind of evidence do you have to prove that? I cannot believe in you without evidence, you know that stuff you are always asking me for.

I am getting old and I need to be able to make an informed decision.

You’re right, so you had better get on the ball... Time’s a-wasting.

 

[Subduction Zone]

What kind of evidence do you have to prove that? I cannot believe in you without evidence, you know that stuff you are always asking me for.

You’re right, so you had better get on the ball... Time’s a-wasting.

Hmm, that is a bit of a problem. I don't think I am willing to send a financial statement showing dire need, unless I could be guaranteed the funding. Drat, we may be at a Catch-22.

 

[Trailblazer]

Hmm, that is a bit of a problem. I don't think I am willing to send a financial statement showing dire need, unless I could be guaranteed the funding. Drat, we may be at a Catch-22.

But even if you got the money and built your heaven, how could you know that you would want to spend eternity there unless you spent eternity there? Do you understand the problem? We are not talking about a few hundred earth years, we are talking about eternity.

 

[Mock Turtle]

Very easily, you do it multiple times every single day after all.



The point is you are making a decision, even if that decision is 'this is just religious guff so I'm not going to waste my time with it'.



Which is your decision, the one you were complaining about being 'forced' to make.

I have no belief in the soul, an afterlife, heaven or hell etc. (lack of evidence), so why should I be bothered with such questions? I am agnostic with regards the origins of the universe and any creator, and all the suppositions from religion (via humans) mean nothing to me - from the evidence available to my consciousness - such that any results of making a decision mean even little. Pascal can go himself.

Religions might affect others - not me - they are just an annoying intrusion into my life.

 

[Subduction Zone]

But even if you got the money and built your heaven, how could you know that you would want to spend eternity there unless you spent eternity there? Do you understand the problem? We are not talking about a few hundred earth years, we are talking about eternity.

That is why the money is needed. I plan to go through extreme testing over a period of a year or so. Don't worry, the money will be well spent and at the very least I will pass with a permanent smile on my face.

 

[Trailblazer]

That is why the money is needed. I plan to go through extreme testing over a period of a year or so. Don't worry, the money will be well spent and at the very least I will pass with a permanent smile on my face.

But a year is only a year... what is that compared to eternity? No matter how much fun you have in a year, you could still get bored with that eventually.

 

[Subduction Zone]

But a year is only a year... what is that compared to eternity? No matter how much fun you have in a year, you could still get bored with that eventually.

Don't worry, I can extrapolate.

 

[Trailblazer]

Don't worry, I can extrapolate.

That's what you say now, but things might be a lot different on the other side of the divide... I am even worried about that... Unknowns have never been my thing.

I guess you should have been a Christian, the kind that believes you will rise from the dead and have a physical body forever. Then you could keep enjoying the things of the flesh.... forever.