2008?

[ShivaFan]

Hello my fellow Capitalists. (Crapitalists not invited). This isn’t looking good. Smells like 2008. The pattern of big down, then followed the next day by “cheap buying opportunity” and an initial jump up when folks scavenge, then followed the next day after by a big down, then half-as-much down yet again the next day, then a little down, then “cheap buy” goes up half-as-much, then down big time. All the trending is down, however.

I know, you cannot judge the “economy” entirely by the DOW, but nor can you be an idiot and ignore it. We already lost since September 11 all the “gains” (discounting the dollar) we made this year since as of the big “reality check” drop on October 7. Yes, the same pattern, it comes back the next day on “cheap buy” then we get hit big the next day after and today. I understand the market isn’t for everyone. Actually, gold may make sense again in about 3 months, not sure yet, nor is this about touting the market – it isn’t that. It is about using what we have to figure out what might happen next, whether you are in the market or not. Poverty is already at an all time high. They are going to have a rough time, I always am vigilant and will rough this one out as always but it takes a bit of ability and moving funds around, and monitoring things every day, sometimes 3 times a day, following every single news item and world event, every election, the market et all. Earlier I mentioned ETFs. That may be the last “hiding place” but that will probably get hit as well, though not as bad.

My friends, this has been the worse recovery ever and has stumbled along for years now since 2008. It was never recovered. Now it looks like this may be 2008 all over again. I am not making the “all bets are off yet”, but this isn’t looking good. And it is global. And Finland just lost it’s AAA rating. If the friggin’ ebola or Enterovirus D68 (polio) gets it’s teeth in, the economy will collapse very fast. But that isn’t the only thing. China is about to go bezerker when the people there realize they are now getting in big time trouble. Thailand is going to have real issues, and Africa – forget about it. Pray to God ebola doesn’t hit India, that will take things down real fast. If it hits Mexico or Guatemala you will have “refugees” running over the Mexican border like nobody’s business for the “free meds” which won’t exit, don’t listen to the pre-November election desperation lies from the government to try and stay in power because the US does not have the capability or healthcare or hospitals to manage this, just one guy from Liberia who lied about coming in contact with ebola cut the knee caps off the resources in Dallas and cost the taxpayers 1 million dollars in “services” resulting from this one guy, and those who know epidemiology say the US can handle at most only 40 “patients” at the same time. Sorry to dwell on ebola and polio, but do not be fooled, that alone is enough to sink this. Wait until the “community” in L.A. starts looting the hospitals for the “meds”, no way will we shoot looters on site like in 1906 after the earthquake. And I pray, we don’t see the interest rate rises that are sure to come thanks to our debt, but this may hit the fan sooner than some expected. I saved my you know what back then when I moved big chunks of money to bonds three months prior, but this one is more complicated in that we may have the rare circumstances this time in an interest rate crisis (which some will initially tout as beneficial until reality sets in) combined with inflation that both the stocks and the bonds will cycle down, as the stocks go down it will follow the pattern we are already seeing.

The stars are not aligning well, and the moon is bleeding.

Date Open High Low Close Volume Gain/Loss
10-Oct-14 16,654.88 16,757.60 16,543.91 16,544.10 136,369,015 -110.78
9-Oct-14 16,989.37 16,989.37 16,649.04 16,659.25 93,214,073 -330.12
8-Oct-14 16,718.65 17,006.91 16,663.26 16,994.22 106,928,713 275.57
7-Oct-14 16,988.25 16,988.25 16,715.79 16,719.39 79,418,351 -268.86
6-Oct-14 17,010.34 17,099.39 16,930.38 16,991.91 65,544,726 -18.43
3-Oct-14 16,802.20 17,027.84 16,802.20 17,009.69 87,939,941 207.49
2-Oct-14 16,808.27 16,857.25 16,674.04 16,801.05 75,492,750 -7.22
1-Oct-14 17,040.46 17,041.16 16,776.13 16,804.71 104,236,056 -235.75
30-Sep-14 17,070.45 17,145.10 17,017.11 17,042.90 102,290,741 -27.55
29-Sep-14 17,107.69 17,107.69 16,934.43 17,071.22 70,220,501 -36.47
26-Sep-14 16,948.62 17,148.15 16,948.11 17,113.15 74,665,752 164.53
25-Sep-14 17,204.86 17,204.86 16,945.80 16,945.80 93,516,626 -259.06
24-Sep-14 17,056.64 17,226.60 17,033.93 17,210.06 80,525,172 153.42
23-Sep-14 17,165.91 17,171.88 17,055.87 17,055.87 77,090,913 -110.04
22-Sep-14 17,271.71 17,277.88 17,159.36 17,172.68 74,299,120 -99.03

 

[ShivaFan]

Opps... I forgot to note one "bucket" you can turn to if and when interest rates go up up up.

Right now CDs are horrible. But be ready to move into CDs which again will be a good deal in rising interest rates. But then you are locking the money in for 3, 5 years (or longer), but try to target 5% or more. Remember, the CD option isn't about making money or becoming rich, it is about protecting your money as much as you can as interest rates rise, saving your you know what.

 

[ShivaFan]

Horrible. The first day after last week's disaster, and today Monday 13 Oct 2014 and we are down triple digits again...

Down
-223.03

This has already impacted those close to retirement.

It seems clear that by Feb 2015 we are going to see the worst of it, and those who know and who called last week exactly, they say the interest rates will start rising in the same February of 2015 after a "hope in the heart" slight bump up in stocks in Dec ...

For those who would be making the call on an annuity as we descend, keep in mind (and I already ran the numbers in financial engines and proven):

If you have a choice of annuity or lump sum, while the annuity amount at the time of annuity election will rise a couple of dollars, the lump sum will drop DRAMATICALLY.

The hope is that there is a way to turn this around for a five year window- if the Republicans take the Senate and then open up Keystone and domestic energy. Hpwever, if ebola breaks out the economy will collapse.

 

[Revoltingest]

I'll go so far as to say that I see some risk factors:
- Highly leveraged home loans are back.
- Recovery is limited by a shortage of willing skilled labor.
- Unemployment (real) is still high.
- Tax rates are up.
- War escalation.
- Increasingly cumbersome legal system.
- Continued loss of economic liberty.....
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/10/10/US-Slips-to-12th-in-Economic-Freedom

 

[ShivaFan]

Hello Capitalists

The DOW closed down (again) about -174 points.

Don’t listen to the Mr. Sheeple Smith guy right now on FOX. Don’t listen to this next campaign which he is participating in, trying to portray anyone who wants to look the facts in the eye as “fomenting panic”. Mr. Smith sat on a wall, Mr. Smith had a great fall. All the King’s horses and all the King’s men, couldn’t put Mr. Smith together again.

Don’t listen to Mr. Smith and certainly do not take his advice to ignore things any further, or be told that you must fear your own common sense, don’t let his efforts to paint you as a “fear monger” just because you are trying to understand what this entails. Do not listen to Mr. Smith that “everything is fine” and to just turn on a dancing show.

Everything is not ok. Sitting on a wall like Mr. Smith wants us to do, is not using your brain. Falling for this crap about trying to label you “in panic” so that you just shut up and watch a dancing show, is not smart. Mr. Smith is Obama with a happy face. Turn off Mr. Smith. Do not listen to that piece of garbage and opportunist who thinks he will make an icon of himself by acting like “Mister level headed middle ground guy”. He isn’t level headed. He is half-wit.

To Capitalists who want to do their part. Yes, it is a big risk what I am thinking we should do. The poor in this country are surrounded by illegal aliens who will use more than they deserve regarding the limited resources we have, the safety nets for what they are, which could be better, they are for our own poor – not for them. It isn’t fair to the poor of our country who are our own citizens. The economy is going into a 2008 pattern of recession right before our eyes. It could not come at a worse time, in that our already stressed resources thanks to government policies will now be stressed to the max.

On top of this, we have ebola and all the wrong people in charge.

Here is what I am doing, if enough try even with the risks involved, it could make a difference though we will see. I just sent in an order for $50,000 dollars in oil stocks. This is a risk. Let me explain however.

Right now, we are going into the pits. Most following reality were already talking about this, trying to get attention, now it has happened. But … There is still something you can do to help. It may not work, but here goes the story as it is. There is bad economic data, and it is global. China is also in trouble, this will stoke aggression by the communist government to rally around the “flag”. What the poor have gained to reach lower “livable wage” have conditioned them now the expectation of it to continue – the reversals will have dramatic psychological effect which will result in riots and division (which is already inherit) demanding more local autonomy or even succession in some regions. The Chinese government will go after the Pacific to get resources and to “rally around the flag” – Japan and others will probably have to start rearming. There is very real fear that interest rate rise, which will come sooner or later, will come sooner – and what will the Fed do. You can only keep buying off rising interest rates for so long and then you run out of money. The US and most of Europe, in fact most of the world frankly, is way over in debt. Way over. If the interest rates go up, your debt, the debt of your nation, will become impossible to even manage. Ebola will destroy the economy if it breaks out, don’t listen to Mr. Smith and turn on a dancing show.

So now, you can try to make a difference. The typical pattern is a couple of very hurtful drops, then it goes up about 100 or so on the “cheap buying opportunity”, then it goes down 60, then 200 and so on, down, down, down trending.

I could start buying gold, I suppose. Normally, as we say with the bump in bonds today, bonds is where you go to “save your blank” as the stocks drop – that was true back then, but likely not going to be the case in Feb 2015. If interest rates start up, bonds go down, you can have the rare blood moon of both stocks and bonds tanking. In fact, that is likely.

But I am not going to buy gold. Because, Captialist, you still will eat rat. No one will want your gold coins or bars. Put them in a pillow case and perhaps use it to conk someone over the head with when you have your home invasion.

The Saudi’s and to an extent OPEC says “we can live with less than 80 dollar a barrel Brent crude”.

I could be wrong, but it makes sense what I am hearing. Since I am asking other Capitalists to start buying, buying, buying stock (just pretend you are buying on the cheap so you can make gains later on the up), you might need some ideas what to buy. You probably have your own ideas – whatever, just buy because you want to try and do something, anything, to stop this.

Yes, what you are being asked is to get on the horse, pull your sword out, and charge forward with the Calvary. Half of you will be dead. But that will be true anyway.

So, the Saudis do not want to see the US and others continue any progress on domestic oil, shale, fracking, and such. We are on the verge to outstrip them. They want to delay this 5 years so that they can get in on the action, too. Because they are going to lose other’s dependency on their crude. They want to buy 5 years.

They also want to destroy ISIS.

Obama has an extremist constituency. He is already lame duck, but he can’t afford to lose the “dead enders” that he has. He won’t go down the domestic oil, Keystone, etc. path.

But he also wants to stick a knife in Putin. The way you do Putin the whoopee cushion is to get the price per barrel below $80 dollars on Brent. Right now WTI is 81 and Brent is 85. Magically, Saudis want the same – not to knife Putin but dump on the price per barrel - even though this would hurt them right now. Why would they want that? Why get OPEC behind this?

Because of a couple of reasons.

If the Saudis keep putting out production way beyond the benefit of their costs for such production, flood the market, this drop per barrel will make Obama happy. It will help get Putin, without Obama needing to expand domestic oil which would also result in 80 dollars or below.

Now some would say, the “Big Oil” companies would lose with the expansion of domestic oil and with the drop per barrel. But actually, that is not true. In the domestic scenario, the loss would only be short and very up front, but the gain is the huge bump in the economy. Even though the price at the pump drops, with the swing up in the economy more will be buying gas. A poor economy, which actually high pump prices feed since trucks delivering goods pay more and everything is impacted in a domino effect, actually hurts the oil companies in the near term. So a good economy, means more money to invest in domestic, in shale, fracking etc. and other forms of energy besides.

The Saudis don’t want that.

So they want to discourage investment in oil stocks that fund domestic exploration, etc.. With 80 dollars or less per barrel, this will discourage investments.

So they can do a deal with Obama. Obama doesn’t need to advance domestic oil, but at the same get the price per barrel under 80 dollars. And thus hurt Putin.

In return, Obama helps the Saudis by saying, “we will get ISIS for you”.

But not so fast.

We could cut the legs off of ISIS in two weeks or less. Not totally destroy, but hurt them big time. But if that happens too fast, there is nothing Obama has to offer the Saudis anymore.

The Saudis are going to have a hard time holding OPEC together with this agenda to go max on production and flood the market and “we can live less than 80 dollars a barrel” stuff. Other nations in OPEC – I predict – will be partner only very short term.

They will jump ship. There is no way the Saudis will hold them in line. Right now, it would hurt them, they do not have the patience to wait while investors are discouraged on the hope that US domestic production and cooperation with none ME is put off for 5 years to let the Saudis get in on the “new game in town”. When others in OPEC jump ship, then the oil stocks go up. Obama has no reason to “slowly kill ISIS” anymore – fast is just as good at that point. Which is also good. Yes, Putin won’t get the knife from Obama. But we have other things to worry about, the nations you care about are no way going to like this recession. Try to stop it.

I could be wrong about the oil thing. You choose what you think is smart.

But we need to take risk right now, and start buying stocks – again, think of it “on the cheap”. Try to turn this around. Just try, at risk. I literally could not think of where to move the money. Short term, yes some to bonds but that isn’t going to work long term. And actually, we have some obligation to try and turn this around, and give the economy a chance to come back a bit. This will turn around if policy changes and power changes. But for now, we should do our part even at great risk. I am buying oil stocks “on the cheap” using dollar cost averaging. Every other day for example. Big risk. With the hope that the stocks – in this case oil but you choose your poison – come back later. They may not. But man, you are going to not escape much anyway, may as well try. Just start buying stuff.

There are other investments to consider. Like companies that make body bags.

 

[ShivaFan]

BUY! BUY! BUY!

It's folks like you the good Capitalists who can turn this thing around even at great risk for "King and Country"! If enough buy buy buy it will volume the torque and soar to the North!

And it looks like I am not alone, a good friend of mine put in a market order last night for $163,500 dollars of stock to help - he's a HERO!

I just put in another market order in 6am California time for $15,000 (I am doing dollar cost averaging). Another friend do a big order, too.

Don't be a coward! Get on your horse and charge with the Light Brigade!

It is WORKING! You are heroes!

 

[ShivaFan]

Here is an inspiring message (below). She isn't Wall Street, but this babe's words of wisdom is our "Checkpoint" moment before the big meeting that resonates with all fellow Capitalists.

And, she is a babe. Take this in to your next meeting. This is the outlook that makes your monkey fly (the good monkey, not the witch's monkey).

[youtube]d3xc5BpDhGg[/youtube]
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=d3xc5BpDhGg