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10 Years to save the Planet ?

logician

Well-Known Member
"who is to say we are the main cause of the current ones"

The mainstream of the climatological community is saying it big time. Global warming is accelerating at an alarming pace, and most everyone(except maybe Bush and cronies) is now catching on that we're in serious trouble.
 

logician

Well-Known Member
"who is to say we are the main cause of the current ones"

THe mainstream of the climatological community is saying it big time. And most everyone (except Bush and cronies) is catching on that we're in serious trouble.
 

Ryan2065

Well-Known Member
The mainstream of the climatological community is saying it big time. Global warming is accelerating at an alarming pace, and most everyone(except maybe Bush and cronies) is now catching on that we're in serious trouble.
Yes... but they just say "We are the cause"... I don't even know how it would be possible to do any sort of experiment that would test this hypothesis. You know... seeing as there have been sharp increases of temperature world wide many times in this worlds history. Add in the fact that volcano activity is up and solar flare activity is the highest ever... How again can we know exactly that we are the cause?
 

sparc872

Active Member
Yes... but they just say "We are the cause"... I don't even know how it would be possible to do any sort of experiment that would test this hypothesis. You know... seeing as there have been sharp increases of temperature world wide many times in this worlds history. Add in the fact that volcano activity is up and solar flare activity is the highest ever... How again can we know exactly that we are the cause?

Whether or not we are the sole cause to the problem is irrelevent. We do know that carbon dioxide and methane are greenhouse gases, and we do know that we are creating large amounts of both, reaching levels that haven't been seen on earth for an estimated 40 million years. Is it so hard then, to believe that we are having even a small effect on the climate?

And then, is it so much to ask that we make every effort possible to dampen this outrageous growth of fossil fuel consumption, deforestation, etc? I fail to see why you are so adament in convincing everyone that we are having such an insignificant effect on the climate. Any effect is still an effect. The rate of species destruction is skyrocketing. Plants that used to be found only close to the equator have been extending their boundaries due to warmer temperatures elsewhere. We have seen the decimation of numerous frog populations in these regions due to the introduction of foreign fungi that the frogs have never had to adapt to.

So, once again, even if our effect is minimal, we can be sure that our activities ARE altering the world and every effort to minimize our impact is one worth investing in.
 

logician

Well-Known Member
" I don't even know how it would be possible to do any sort of experiment that would test this hypothesis"

I do, just measure how much carbon dioxide and other GH gases we are emitting worldwide now, vs how much we were 10, 20 or a hundred years ago, and then measure average ocean temp changes, rate of glacial melt, etc. That's what climatologists are doing now.
 

akshar

Active Member
I dont think we have a decase but a millenium to sort this out, we'll get sorted out, your all gonna be fine!
 
Remember we are getting out of a little ice age. Weather has known to always be variable. There is so much to consider with all of the cycles, Thermohaline circulation, the albedo, ect. With one change of a system, it has a direct effect on another causing almost an equilibrium.

We humans are contributing to carbon dioxide and methane and it is going to be getting serious, if we don't do anything.

Did you know the digestive track of termites is the second largest natural methane producer? The first being wetlands. And can to guess what the top human contribution to methane is? (Rice patties), basically an artificial wetland. The rest of the unatural contributers have a very small impact. But something important to remember is that methane has a greatly larger heating potential than carbon dioxide, (23x).

In about 1750 methane levels made a verticle jump, straight up on a graph and have since been increasing slightly. Since then methane has increased by 130%. The residence time for methane is 12 years, so it is not something that is unfixable.

Nitrous Oxide is very serious. It has a global warming potential of 120, compare that to carbon dioxide, 1 and methane, 23. Its natural source comes from soil microbs and the ocean, which amount to 60% of its source. Humans account for the other 40% in the atmosphere. Cultivating soil is the top contributer and the use of nitrogen fertilizers is second. The residence time is 120 years, so a little more difficult to correct in short time.


NOW heres the big one. Chloroflurocarbon, it has many types but I wont go into that. This sucker destroys the ozone and has a global warming potential of 3,800 - 8,100!!!
That is crazy if you ask me. Levels of this have stopped increasing. I'm not sure what causes it to increase, although I think airconditioners made before the 90s' had something to do with it. Those since have been outlawed.
 

MarinaVanylovna

New Member
what do i think? I believe that it is best to say - better safe than sorry. What is the use in denying global warming? even if it isnt true (which is unlikely- i think we all can agree) we should do everything we can to save what is left of our planet. i think that we should make as much individual effort as possible to recycle, reuse, etc. I have been holding Al Gore in a saintly position in my life personally. Mainly for his marvelous work in publicizing the need to ACT and the need to act NOW. i say, why not join forces behind a strong leader such as Albert Gore (i personally believe that he is saintly, but y'all can argue) and take a stand to save the earth!? If we lose the earth to global warming, questions such as "what is the ultimate reality?" would soon become extinct, as they already have for so many other species. thanks! (ps- i love St.AG! My hero.. :) )
 

Valjean

Veteran Member
Premium Member
Agreed. Better safe than sorry. Even without global warming we're way beyond the carrying capacity of the Planet. We're using resources and degrading the global environment far faster than they can be renewed/repaired.

If we don't drastically reduce population we're headed for disaster weather or not the Earth warms or cools.
 

Ryan2065

Well-Known Member
I do, just measure how much carbon dioxide and other GH gases we are emitting worldwide now, vs how much we were 10, 20 or a hundred years ago, and then measure average ocean temp changes, rate of glacial melt, etc. That's what climatologists are doing now.
That measures how much stuff we are putting into the atmosphere... It doesn't take into account solar flares (which are up) and volcano eruptions (which are also up)... Also there are many many other factors that go into the temperature... A model that includes all those factors would be very hard to create... Just looking at solar flares... in the past 100 years whenever the temperature increased for a few years the solar flares in those years were up... Right now we see more solar flares than we have in the past 100 years... And oddly enough its warmer now than 100 years ago =)
 

Ryan2065

Well-Known Member
Agreed. Better safe than sorry. Even without global warming we're way beyond the carrying capacity of the Planet. We're using resources and degrading the global environment far faster than they can be renewed/repaired.

If we don't drastically reduce population we're headed for disaster weather or not the Earth warms or cools.
So spend our time and energy stopping the fossil fuel industry rather than spend our time and energy finding and fixing the real problem of global warming? I have no problem people cutting car trips and things like that... But having scientists study ways to cut fossil fuel from our lives rather than find and fix the casue of fossil fuel warming is kinda silly in my opinion.
 

logician

Well-Known Member
"in the past 100 years whenever the temperature increased for a few years the solar flares in those years were up... Right now we see more solar flares than we have in the past 100 years... And oddly enough its warmer now than 100 years ago =)"

I wouldn't worry, I think climatologists are taking these things into account.
 

Booko

Deviled Hen
DiscipleOfChrist said:
NOW heres the big one. Chloroflurocarbon, it has many types but I wont go into that. This sucker destroys the ozone and has a global warming potential of 3,800 - 8,100!!!
That is crazy if you ask me. Levels of this have stopped increasing. I'm not sure what causes it to increase, although I think airconditioners made before the 90s' had something to do with it. Those since have been outlawed.

Freon used in air conditioners and refrigerators were a large part of it.

Also the propellants used in deodorants and hair sprays added to the mess. The standard deodorant when I was younger was a can of spray, but you won't find that any more. For a while there were pump sprays, and you can still find those in a couple of brands of natural deodorants. Mostly deodorants are hard or roll on these days. As for hair sprays, they're mostly pump sprays.
 

Booko

Deviled Hen
Ryan2065 said:
So spend our time and energy stopping the fossil fuel industry rather than spend our time and energy finding and fixing the real problem of global warming? I have no problem people cutting car trips and things like that... But having scientists study ways to cut fossil fuel from our lives rather than find and fix the casue of fossil fuel warming is kinda silly in my opinion.

Did I misunderstand something here?

Uh, if the cause of fossil fuel warming is the use of fossil fuels, then the way to cut the warming is to reduce the use of the fuels?

For several reasons, it's in our entire species' interest to find alternative energy sources to fossil fuels anyway, so we might as well get off our butts and start now.
 

Ryan2065

Well-Known Member
wanderer said:
I wouldn't worry, I think climatologists are taking these things into account.
I decided to do some more research after this statement =)
http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=17568
Added Singer in a subsequent letter to the Canadian media, "Thousands of scientists from many countries now fully understand that Kyoto and other efforts to control human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are ineffective and entirely unfounded scientifically.
"Even if you ignore the enormous cost of Kyoto (estimated recently by Prof. George Taylor of Oregon State University--see http://www.sitewave.net/news/s49p628.htm--at one trillion U.S. dollars a year for full implementation in OECD countries), climate science research is rapidly moving AWAY from the hypothesis that the human release of greenhouse gases, specifically CO2, is in any way significantly contributing to global climate change."
The controlling driver of global temperature fluctuations, according to Dr. Benny Peiser of England's John Moore's University, is solar ray activity. "Six eminent researchers from the Russian Academy of Science and the Israel Space Agency have just published a startling paper in one of the world's leading space science journals. The team of solar physicists claims to have come up with compelling evidence that changes in cosmic ray intensity and variations in solar activity have been driving much of the Earth's climate," Peiser was quoted as saying in the May 17 National Post.
Moreover, reports Peiser, Jan Veizer, one of Canada's top earth scientists, published a comprehensive review of recent findings and concluded, "empirical observations on all time scales point to celestial phenomena as the principal driver of climate, with greenhouse gases acting only as potential amplifiers."

http://www.sitewave.net/news/s49p628.htm
Having just returned from the annual meeting of the American Association of State Climatologists (for which I will be President for the next year), I can tell you that there is a great deal of global warming skepticism among my colleagues. For every outspoken scientist like Pat Michaels there are dozens of less verbose but equally committed men and women who do not buy into the Administration's point of view. Far from being a "done deal," the global warming scenarios are looking shakier and shakier. I have encouraged the other state climatologists to speak up on this issue and intend to be a spokesman myself (see, for example, July 25 1998 Science News). It's interesting to me that the tactics of the "advocates" seems to be to 1) call the other side names ("pseudo-scientists") and 2) declare the debate over ("the vast majority of credible scientists believe..."). I'm grateful for those who are running top-notch Web sites (SEPP, junkscience, John Daly, Doug Hoyt, Pat Michaels, etc.) to keep the dialogue open and enable us to share relevant information and scientific data (and also provide encouragement).

Yup yup, they sure are taking these things into account....
 

Ryan2065

Well-Known Member
Booko said:
Did I misunderstand something here?

Uh, if the cause of fossil fuel warming is the use of fossil fuels, then the way to cut the warming is to reduce the use of the fuels?

For several reasons, it's in our entire species' interest to find alternative energy sources to fossil fuels anyway, so we might as well get off our butts and start now.
Right, I have no problem with this... But to say that this is the cause of global warming without hard evidence and to stop trying to figure out the real cause of global warming is quite stupid. To me its more important to figure out global warming and if its a threat at all over reducing fossil fuels.
 

JerryL

Well-Known Member
An American neoconservitive economic website? It's suspicious that this isn't from a news agency, an envyronmental group, not a scientific group.

"Welcome to the Web site of The Heartland Institute, a nonprofit organization devoted to discovering and promoting free-market solutions to social and economic problems."


This one claims to be a climetology site. Let's see if it's scientific or political in nature. Here is the top of their "in the news" at present and in order (IOW, I'm not cherry picking)I'm pretty sure that the use of slurs like "eco wackos" firmly establishes this source as not remotely reliable.

The site is a dedicated anti-global-warming site (go look at the homepage). Referncing this webpage on global warming is analogous to supporting an argument on WWII by going to the Aryan Nation website. It's not simply biased, but literally devoted to an adgenda.

Please use credible sources.

Right, I have no problem with this... But to say that this is the cause of global warming without hard evidence and to stop trying to figure out the real cause of global warming is quite stupid. To me its more important to figure out global warming and if its a threat at all over reducing fossil fuels.
I'm not clear on any scenerio where global climate change would fail to be a threat. It seems rather inherent.
 

Ryan2065

Well-Known Member
JerryL said:
An American neoconservitive economic website? It's suspicious that this isn't from a news agency, an envyronmental group, not a scientific group.

"Welcome to the Web site of The Heartland Institute, a nonprofit organization devoted to discovering and promoting free-market solutions to social and economic problems."
This seems a stretch... So the information is wrong because its not from a news agency? Are you actually going to debate any points raised or just throw up smoke?
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/warming/debate/singer.html
Interview with the main person quoted from the Heartland Institute
[FONT=Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif] He is an atmospheric physicist at George Mason University and founder of the Science and Environmental Policy Project, a think tank on climate and environmental issues. Singer has been a leading skeptic of the scientific consensus on global warming. He points out that the scenarios are alarmist, computer models reflect real gaps in climate knowledge, and future warming will be inconsequential or modest at most. [/FONT]
http://www.nationalcenter.org/KyotoSingerTestimony2000.html
This above link is his testimony before the senate committee on commerce, science, and transportation on climate change...

JerryL said:
This one claims to be a climetology site. Let's see if it's scientific or political in nature. Here is the top of their "in the news" at present and in order (IOW, I'm not cherry picking)
Actually this site was only used for the letter listed on the site from the president of the American Association of State Climatologists... Seeing as it was in response to a comment about climatologists I think it still works.

JerryL said:
I'm pretty sure that the use of slurs like "eco wackos" firmly establishes this source as not remotely reliable.
Actually it makes the source very obviously biased. If you were to find errors in what they report, then it would not be reliable.

JerryL said:
Please use credible sources.
How again isn't the first a reliable source? Or is this the make people forget about the first site while you bash the second then label both sites as not credible while you hope people will forget about the first site?

JerryL said:
I'm not clear on any scenerio where global climate change would fail to be a threat. It seems rather inherent.
Well... Lets see... global climate going up .000000000000000000000000001 degree doesn't seem too bad... Global climate change does not mean Massive global climate change... It simply means global climate change... If its part of nature, and doesn't do anything drastic to us, then I don't exactly think its that much of a threat.
 

JerryL

Well-Known Member
This seems a stretch... So the information is wrong because its not from a news agency? Are you actually going to debate any points raised or just throw up smoke?
Debate what? "A lot of us feel global warming is a hoax" is not an argument. You made an appeal to authority and the authority in question was incredibly unreliable.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/warming/debate/singer.html
Interview with the main person quoted from the Heartland Institute
I agree that there are opponents to global warming. Do you have a statistic on the size of the opposition or simply anticdotes?

This above link is his testimony before the senate committee on commerce, science, and transportation on climate change...
I agree with the assertion that Fred Singer doesn't believe in Global warming. What of it?

Actually this site was only used for the letter listed on the site from the president of the American Association of State Climatologists... Seeing as it was in response to a comment about climatologists I think it still works.
My bad, I thought I had removed the "claims to be a climatological site" when I found that was merely the title on the one page. Please ignore that statement.

Actually it makes the source very obviously biased. If you were to find errors in what they report, then it would not be reliable.
Extreme bias destroies credability. Why you won't let rape victims sit on the jury at a rape trial.

But the didn't really make any points, and more importantly, you've not made any points. I'm not here to argue with them (unless they would like to come on RF). You may assert any position and support you like and I will happily discuss it with you. I don't generally argue with websites.

How again isn't the first a reliable source? Or is this the make people forget about the first site while you bash the second then label both sites as not credible while you hope people will forget about the first site?
People are welcome to remember the first site. It's a political neo-conservitive economics site which simply asserts that there's a lot of people who don't believe in Global warming. It's unreliable in the same manner that answersingenesis is.

But again, if you would like to raise and support specific points, I'm happy to discuss them.

Well... Lets see... global climate going up .000000000000000000000000001 degree doesn't seem too bad... Global climate change does not mean Massive global climate change... It simply means global climate change... If its part of nature, and doesn't do anything drastic to us, then I don't exactly think its that much of a threat.
For want of a nail, a shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe, a horse was lost.
For want of a horse, a rider was lost.
For want of a rider, a skirmish was lost.
For want of a skirmish, a battle was lost.
For want of a battle, a war was lost.
For want of a war, a nation was lost.

What difference could one nail make?

I'd suggest you look up "butterfly effect" and the experiment that first uncovered it (it was a climate experiment) before you make such claims. On the other hand, such an order of change is not what anyone is discussing or caring about. More than that has already happend. Please stick to the actual topic rather than a reducto ad absurdium that really doesn't relate. There's certainly a threshold before we really call it "global warming".
 

Ryan2065

Well-Known Member
JerryL said:
Debate what? "A lot of us feel global warming is a hoax" is not an argument. You made an appeal to authority and the authority in question was incredibly unreliable.
There were things there to debate if you actually read it rather than looking up what website it was posted on.

JerryL said:
I agree that there are opponents to global warming. Do you have a statistic on the size of the opposition or simply anticdotes?
I believe many people before me have stated things like "Most of the climatologists agree we are to blame" yet when someone opposes this view (and apparently yours) you instantly want numbers... Here is one of the sites you dismissed because they are biased. They also request that scientists review their materials and sign their petition if they agree... Here is the petition...
http://www.sitewave.net/pproject/
Any numbers on your end?

JerryL said:
I'd suggest you look up "butterfly effect" and the experiment that first uncovered it (it was a climate experiment) before you make such claims. On the other hand, such an order of change is not what anyone is discussing or caring about. More than that has already happend. Please stick to the actual topic rather than a reducto ad absurdium that really doesn't relate. There's certainly a threshold before we really call it "global warming".
You said you knew of no scenario where global climate change would be a threat. We know that the global climate throughout the years has changed, and we also know that in the past a change of .000000000000000000000000001 was not exactly a threat. You invoke the "butterfly effect" which actually would go so far as to say a butterfly can be a threat because it could eventually cause a tidal wave half way around the world. There is no scientific research to this actually, and as far as I know, there is no scientific research saying if the global temperature went up or down .000000000000000000000000001 degree in a year it would be a threat. Can you tell me what creatures would die if the temperature of the earth went down .000000000000000000000000001 in a year then back up .000000000000000000000000001 the next year?
 
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