For example you cant calculate the exact probabilities of a monkey typing random letters in a key board, and end up with a coherent sentence with say 10 words and 50 letters. But you can say that such this in very, very improbable.
You making up fake scenario of things that didn’t happen.
You cannot use fake story to derive probability.
Probability come from real numbers acquired through stats (observations from real observed evidence, which are the statistical data).
As I said you in my last reply to you, before you can do the maths to calculate the probability of it occurring again, you would need observations of past “occurrences”, where the “occurrences” is mathematical or statistical term for “evidence”.
To give you example, the bureau of meteorology that forecast if there to be rains or not, they don’t simply making up if there are rain tomorrow or the day after.
The forecast of rain depends on many different readings, but the main one is the satellite images of the atmospheric pressures, eg the low pressures versus the high pressures.
Did you ever wonder why they show map of your country or region, eg Australia, United States, Western Europe, etc, which have indicators of L for “low”, H for “high” superimposed on the map?
These observations observed the wind directions. In the Northern Hemisphere, the low pressures are where winds are being blow in circles in anti-clockwise direction, and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.
The areas that show low pressures, are indications of unsettled weather, which would include possible chance of rain, or chances of high winds or chances of storm.
These areas of low pressures and high pressures, move about.
Now here is the probability of forecasting chance of rain, an example, let’s say you in Sydney, Australia. Now let’s say that Sydney is experiencing 5 of days of light wind, no rain or showers, and mainly sunny sky, due to the high pressures.
But the area of high pressure have been moving gradually south towards Melbourne, Victoria, while area of low pressure from Queensland, is gradually moving south Sydney. The meteorology department, can calculate when this low pressure will arrive in Sydney, bringing the rain from Queensland to New South Wales.
They don’t based their calculations on something they make up from the top of their head. They looked at satellite observations of the atmospheric pressures across Australia, from the present to the last 5 or 7 days. The speed of how fast areas of pressures are determine by satellite images, and in what directions they are moving.
So the bureau of meteorology can calculate when low pressures come or go to particular region (eg Sydney).
These past observations of weather patterns, can help with determining the chance of rain or not.
But I need to remind you, that low pressure don’t just mean shower or rain, it could also mean higher wind speed, eg gale-force winds, or storm-force winds, or combination of wind and rain.
That’s how Probability work, it relies on the numbers of statistics of past and present weather patterns moving in and out of your city, and they can calculate when and from where the low pressures come from.
Forecasting and estimating in probability are dependent on past observations recorded in statistics.
So if you don’t have the stats, you cannot do any calculations on Probability.