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The Midterm Elections Should Be Interesting
- Thread starter Stevicus
- Start date
^ projection?
tytlyf
Not Religious
So you'd support the republican establishment pick? The only way to drain the republican swamp is to not vote for establishment people.
But of course the republican establishment will flood the airwaves with propaganda as usual. Scaring the vulnerable into support them. Works every time.
Shadow Wolf
Certified People sTabber
Why should I take you seriously?
tytlyf
Not Religious
You don't have to, this is the intranetz. My opinions are based on experience.
Shadow Wolf
Certified People sTabber
Your opinion on me "supporting the republican pick" is based on total nonsense you pulled out of the air. Even saying it shows you haven't been paying attention. You might as well have asked Esmith if he'd support Hillary, or Revoltingest if he hates antique machines.
I am also optimistic about the midterms. There is ample evidence to support the idea that the Democrats can take both houses. You just need to look at the elections that have occurred since last spring. Four House seats were vacated when Trump tapped their occupants to come to join his administration
Tom Price won Georgia's 6th district last November by 21%, and was then made Secretary of Health and Human Services. A special election the following June was won by the Republican candidate by 4%.
Mike Pompeo won Kansas' 4th district beating the Democratic candidate by 31% before being named head of the CIA. In the following April, the Republican won the special election by 6%.
Mick Mulvaney won South Carolina's 5th congressional district in 2016 by 21% before being tapped to become director of the Office of Management and Budget. Republican Ralph Norman won the special election by 3%
Ryan Zinke vacated his House seat in Montana to become Secretary of the Interior, a seat which he won by a 16% margin. His successor won the same seat by a little over 6% the following May.
These men were all selected in part because they won their elections by relatively wide margins in firmly Republican-controlled congressional districts. Most incumbent Republicans didn't win by such large margins, and few could sustain these kinds of losses and be re-elected.
Then there are the statehouses.
Trump supported Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia gubernatorial race, who he lost big (45% compared to Democrat Northam's 54%). The Democrat that Northam replaced as Virginia's governor, McAuliffe, had won narrowly in 2013 (by 3%) Northam won the Virginal governorship by 9% despite both Trump and Pence campaigning for Gillespie. McAuliffe had won four years earlier by 3%.
On the same November day in New Jersey, the Democrats took the state house back from Chris Christie and the Republicans.
Trump also supported Luther Strange's candidacy in the Alabama Republican senatorial primary. Strange lost by a ton.Then Trump got behind Moore, who also lost in about the reddest state in the galaxy. Grabbing a Republican seat before the midterms was quite a coup for the Democrats. They only need to flip two more states than the number of seats that they lose to take the Senate. Only 8 seats held by Republicans are up for grabs, but two of those seats are currently held by incumbents, Corker and Flake, who are are resigning. That should help, as incumbants have an advantage not enjoyed by other candidates.
These are the eight if you're not already aware:
State- Incumbent
Nevada - Heller
Utah - Hatch
Arizona - Flake
Wyoming - Barasso
Nebraska - Fischer
Texas - Cruz
Tennessee - Corker
Mississippi - Wicker
Nevada - Heller
Utah - Hatch
Arizona - Flake
Wyoming - Barasso
Nebraska - Fischer
Texas - Cruz
Tennessee - Corker
Mississippi - Wicker
The House presently has 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats. The Democrats need to win 24 more seats from the Republicans than they lose to them. That's doable given the data above.
And Trump is still digging holes for himself and his party, which has just passed a wildly unpopular tax bill.
Then there's this:
Dec 22, 2017: A new CNN survey released this week showed Democrats leading Republicans by an astounding 56 percent to 38 percent on the generic congressional ballot. That’s an 18 percentage point lead among registered voters — a record-breaking result. No other survey taken in November or December in the year before a midterm has found the majority party in the House down by that much since at least the 1938 cycle (as far back as I have data).
And while the CNN poll is a bit of an outlier, the Democratic advantage in the FiveThirtyEight generic ballot aggregate is up to about 12 points, 49.6 percent to 37.4 percent. That average, like the CNN poll, also shows Republicans in worse shape right now than any other majority party at this point in the midterm cycle1 since at least the 1938 election.
The Democrats’ Wave Could Turn Into A Flood
Female Voters Could Lead to Democratic Wave in 2018
And while the CNN poll is a bit of an outlier, the Democratic advantage in the FiveThirtyEight generic ballot aggregate is up to about 12 points, 49.6 percent to 37.4 percent. That average, like the CNN poll, also shows Republicans in worse shape right now than any other majority party at this point in the midterm cycle1 since at least the 1938 election.
The Democrats’ Wave Could Turn Into A Flood
Female Voters Could Lead to Democratic Wave in 2018
Were the Republicans, as a group, to stop being so partisan I would go back to voting for Republicans when I the individual candidate was better over all.
I still resent the TeaParty idiots retiring one of the best Senators of the day, Richard Lugar.
They thought him a RINO due to his bipartisan centrism and tendency to prioritize USA over GOP.
Tom