Is Hamas Giving Us False Casualties?

[Kenny]

One would expect quite a bit of variation day to day. In fact, the daily reported casualty count over this period averages 270 plus or minus about 15%. This is strikingly little variation. There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less. Perhaps what is happening is the Gaza ministry is releasing fake daily numbers that vary too little because they do not have a clear understanding of the behavior of naturally occurring numbers. Unfortunately, verified control data is not available to formally test this conclusion, but the details of the daily counts render the numbers suspicious.

Similarly, we should see variation in the number of child casualties that tracks the variation in the number of women.

How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers

The evidence is in their own poorly fabricated figures

www.tabletmag.com

There seems to be some logic to his presentation.

 

[Debater Slayer]

Relevant reading:

Gaza's health ministry said Thursday that the number of Palestinians killed in the war has surpassed 30,000. The official number now stands at 30,035 deaths. The figure is widely viewed as the most reliable one available.

The health ministry provided NPR with one of its latest reports on the death toll, 38 pages long, to analyze. A close look at how Gaza's health ministry counts those killed in the war reveals a system that is buckling under the weight of war and unable to keep an accurate toll of the dead.

Thousands remain unaccounted for — either missing under the rubble, buried hastily in side streets or decomposing in areas that can't be safely reached.

In past wars with Israel, the Gaza health ministry's death tolls were mostly in line with counts by the United Nations and Israel, though there have been discrepancies in the past with Israel on the numbers of civilians vs. militants killed.

An analysis published in the Lancet medical journal in December found that Gaza's health ministry has "historically reported accurate mortality data," with discrepancies between 1% and roughly 3% when compared with U.N. analysis of deaths in previous conflicts. The study found "no evidence of inflated rates" in the current war and noted that difficulties in obtaining accurate death counts "should not be interpreted as intentionally misreported data."

Gaza's death toll now exceeds 30,000. Here's why it's an incomplete count

If anything, the death toll is an undercount, and it will sadly continue to grow due to the ongoing military assault, starvation, disease, and discovery of missing bodies.

The attempts to minimize or baselessly dismiss the massive loss of civilian life in Gaza are as tragic as they are perniciously dehumanizing.

 

[Kenny]

Relevant reading:





Gaza's death toll now exceeds 30,000. Here's why it's an incomplete count

If anything, the death toll is an undercount, and it will sadly continue to grow due to the ongoing military assault, starvation, disease, and discovery of missing bodies.

The attempts to minimize or baselessly dismiss the massive loss of civilian life in Gaza are as tragic as they are perniciously dehumanizing.

I agree that we shouldn’t minimize deaths.

My point is that we know that Hamas lies and that the figures are too pat to be accepted as reality, Thus, we really can’t trust how many are children.

Additionally, they don’t separate militant women from the title ‘women’ supporting my position.

That being said, any life lost is always a horrible impact.

 

[Revoltingest]

I recently heard a long piece on NPR
about how the death count is low
because bodies not found aren't
counted.
I don't think this helps your agenda
of denying the extent of death though.

 

[dybmh]

Relevant reading:

It's not relevant to the OP or the article that was posted there.

The OP shows that the numbers being provided are too linear for an *actual* daily accounting of those who were killed. The daily reporting should show some variance. The daily reporting shows no variance among other indicators that the Palestinian numbers are false.

If anything, the death toll is an undercount,

Even if it's under counted, the daily death toll should vary from day to day, not increase at the same rate each and every day. This is simple math, I know you can understand it.

The attempts to minimize or baselessly dismiss the massive loss of civilian life in Gaza are as tragic as they are perniciously dehumanizing.

That's not what the article has said. This sort of knee-jerk reaction prohibits "productive dialog". The point is the numbers cannot be trusted. The sources of information coming from Palestine are consistently fabricated. The reader is expected to react emotionally, and their brain switches off.

 

[dybmh]

I recently heard ...

Probably the least credible way to start any statement in a debate.

 

[Revoltingest]

Probably....

The actual least credible way to start a statement.

Don't try a flame war with me, bubala.
I'm more persistent.
I'm smarter (IQ of almost 70).
And I'm the biggest jerk on RF.

 

[Kathryn]

I think that Hamas doesn't care much about civilian deaths, but I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Revoltingest]

I think that Hamas doesn't care much about civilian deaths, but I hope I'm wrong.

Neither does Israel.....at least regarding Muslim deaths.
This is evidenced by their vastly greater kill ratio than Hamas's.

 

[dybmh]

The actual least credible way to start a statement.

Don't try a flame war with me, bubala.
I'm more persistent.
I'm smarter (IQ of almost 70).
And I'm the biggest jerk on RF.

Don't confuse a lack of interest with a lack of persistence. I never quit.

 

[Kathryn]

Neither does Israel.....at least regarding Muslim deaths.
This is evidenced by their vastly greater kill ratio than Hamas's.

Here's what I think. I think that when Hamas attacked Israel, they knew that Israel had superior power and would kill, but it didn't matter to them.

 

[Revoltingest]

Don't confuse a lack of interest with a lack of persistence. I never quit.

Your measly post count says otherwise.
Clearly, I am the king of kvetch, the baron
of blather, & the maharajah of malcontent.

 

[Revoltingest]

Here's what I think. I think that when Hamas attacked Israel, they knew that Israel had superior power and would kill, but it didn't matter to them.

Or it did matter, but their goals differ
from what you expect. Also, it's possible
that things aren't turning out as they
expected.

 

[We Never Know]

One would expect quite a bit of variation day to day. In fact, the daily reported casualty count over this period averages 270 plus or minus about 15%. This is strikingly little variation. There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less. Perhaps what is happening is the Gaza ministry is releasing fake daily numbers that vary too little because they do not have a clear understanding of the behavior of naturally occurring numbers. Unfortunately, verified control data is not available to formally test this conclusion, but the details of the daily counts render the numbers suspicious.

Similarly, we should see variation in the number of child casualties that tracks the variation in the number of women.

How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers

The evidence is in their own poorly fabricated figures

www.tabletmag.com

There seems to be some logic to his presentation.

Well.... Why would a terrorist group be dishonest

 

[dybmh]

@Debater Slayer ,

Here are the numbers of women and children killed ( under 18? ) reported by the Palestinian authority between 10/26 and 11/10. See how regular it is? That's the point of the OP. These numbers don't make sense. And that is 1 reason among others in the article that the information provided by Palestine should not be trusted. They are not statistically consistent with what is expected.

Here's the author of the article in the OP:

 

[Kathryn]

Or it did matter, but their goals differ
from what you expect. Also, it's possible
that things aren't turning out as they
expected.

It's possible but I think their goals differ from what most people expect.

 

[Revoltingest]

It's possible but I think their goals differ from what most people expect.

This has been covered in posts while
I think you were away.
Possibilities that I recall....
- Provoke Israeli over-reaction so their brutal
& thieving ways are made widely known.
- Use the hostages to coerce release of their own.
- Mindless carnage.

I don't presume to know their intent.
Just speculating.

 

[Revoltingest]

Well.... Why would a terrorist group be dishonest

Same goes for state terrorist groups, eg, Israel.

 

[Kathryn]

This has been covered in posts while
I think you were away.
Possibilities that I recall....
- Provoke Israeli over-reaction so their brutal
& thieving ways are made widely known.
- Use the hostages to coerce release of their own.
- Mindless carnage.

I don't presume to know their intent.
Just speculating.

I am just speculating too but I tend to agree with those speculations. One thing I do believe - we are judging them based on western, 21st century standards and I don't think they embrace the norms that we do.

 

[Revoltingest]

I am just speculating too but I tend to agree with those speculations. One thing I do believe - we are judging them based on western, 21st century standards and I don't think they embrace the norms that we do.

I don't know about that.
Western 21st century standards include brutality,
deadliness, & disregard for human rights too.
Especially when that olde tymie religion is involved.