What's the future of North Korea ?

[ronki23]

Ive been wanting to do Japan and South Korea since 2016 and in 2016/2017 had a fear the North Koreans may attack: since then I was somewhat alleviated since the 2 conferences and Trump's visit to the North Korean side of the DMZ.

Now I know I'm not going for another 18 months due to Covid 19 so what'll happen in that time ? If North Korea has been building up its arsenal since its foundation will it one day use it ? Especially if Biden wins the election ? It's not even the end of 2020 and I'm not going until 2022

 

[Stevicus]

The video was kind of funny at the end where the poster said "Ms. Kim, if you ever see this, please do not kill me."

 

[ronki23]

The video was kind of funny at the end where the poster said "Ms. Kim, if you ever see this, please do not kill me."

She's kinda cute . I'm all for women politicians

 

[epronovost]

You shouldn't worry about an attack at all. The North Korean army and State is in a constant state of near collapse. The bombs and threats are simply a way to instigate fear of invasion within their own population to rally them under their corrupt leaders and dissuade the US from overthrowing them as they did with Saddam or Gadafi. It's just a charade. At worst, they will make some pot shot artillery strikes or threaten military ships, but that's all they can do. Any serious confrontation would be suicide.

 

[ronki23]

You shouldn't worry about an attack at all. The North Korean army and State is in a constant state of near collapse. The bombs and threats are simply a way to instigate fear of invasion within their own population to rally them under their corrupt leaders and dissuade the US from overthrowing them as they did with Saddam or Gadafi. It's just a charade. At worst, they will make some pot shot artillery strikes or threaten military ships, but that's all they can do. Any serious confrontation would be suicide.

Surely if you stock up on nukes and never use them you'll have 'enough' to wage a war ?

Always something or the other stops me from going to Japan and South Korea: for 4 years I've waited and if I go in 2022 it'll be 6 years of waiting. There's a narrow window of opportunity for cherry blossoms and Covid-19 slammed it shut

 

[epronovost]

Surely if you stock up on nukes and never use them you'll have 'enough' to wage a war ?

You can't wage a war with nukes. In fact, they are probably the most useless weapon to possess from a military perspective since they can't be used. Their only use is to serve as dissuasion and as a political tool to augment one's influence on the global scale. Mutually assured destruction is still a certainty even well after the end of the Cold War.

 

[ronki23]

You can't wage a war with nukes. In fact, they are probably the most useless weapon to possess from a military perspective since they can't be used. Their only use is to serve as dissuasion and as a political tool to augment one's influence on the global scale. Mutually assured destruction is still a certainty even well after the end of the Cold War.

Why can't you use nukes in a war ?

 

[ronki23]

How likely is Korea Reunification if the Kim family has all of the power and these restrictions on life in the North ?

How did Germany reunify as it wasn't officially part of the USSR ?

Didn't the Communist Party of China stop giving power to Mao's decendents- something to do with the "Gang of 4 " ?

 

[epronovost]

Why can't you use nukes in a war ?

Mutually assured destruction. The only reason to use a nuke is if you are loosing and can't stand your enemies and what's left of you to survive the war. This, of course, is extremely stupid.

 

[Stevicus]

Mutually assured destruction. The only reason to use a nuke is if you are loosing and can't stand your enemies and what's left of you to survive the war. This, of course, is extremely stupid.

A common Cold War scenario was the fear that the Red Army would pour into NATO countries with overwhelming numbers (their conventional forces far outnumbered ours in Europe). If that happened, the U.S. said they would use nukes (first strike) to stop the Soviet advance. That would cause the Soviets to respond in kind, at which point there would be an escalation.

Of course, the Soviets never invaded, so nuclear war never happened.

MacArthur wanted to use nukes against China in the Korean War, which is one of the reasons he was fired by Truman. At that time, China didn't have nukes, but the Soviets did. They could have retaliated. But the nuclear arms race was only just beginning at that early stage. Once they got to ICBMs, SLBMs, MIRV-ing missiles and tens of thousands of warheads on each side, it became utter insanity.

Some people feared that a nuclear war could be started by accident or some computer malfunction.

 

[ronki23]

 

[Stevicus]

View attachment 43828

That's an interesting graphic. In the case of Germany, it wasn't really just Germany, but all of Eastern Europe just started falling out. Some might attribute it to Gorbachev's more reformist policies, with glasnost and perestroika - trying to make the Soviet Union kinder and gentler. So, the other countries under their thumb saw it as an opportunity to break free from Soviet hegemony. I also recall an exodus of East Germans who went into Czechoslovakia and into West Germany from there.

Another key point is that Germany was considered an enemy nation, and dividing them up into occupation zones was what the Allies agreed to. However, one of the major disagreements was what to do with post-war Germany. Some wanted to totally dismantle their industries and make it impossible for them to ever make war again. But the US and UK wanted to rebuild West Germany and make it a strong Allied partner and NATO member.

Korea, on the other hand, was an unfortunate victim. Unlike Germany, they didn't really do anything to deserve to be divided up like that. The Soviets wanted a joint occupation and division of Japan, but the US refused that idea. But somehow, we went along with dividing up Korea.

But it is somewhat curious that the same wave that broke up the USSR and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact never really affected North Korea, which became even more entrenched and isolated.

 

[Brickjectivity]

How likely is Korea Reunification if the Kim family has all of the power and these restrictions on life in the North ?

How did Germany reunify as it wasn't officially part of the USSR ?

Didn't the Communist Party of China stop giving power to Mao's decendents- something to do with the "Gang of 4 " ?

It would be extremely unpopular for China to take over N Korea. Korea has a long, long history of repelling invasions from China; and there is a belief that there is an underlying cause which will continue into the future. Its like...a superstition about continents and kingdoms as if they were destined to follow certain patterns. The Chinese influence in N Korea probably feels like deja vu.

Reunification seems likely but when I don't know when. I think the two Koreas still think of themselves as one despite everything that has happened, so reunification is probably a matter of decades. It will be very interesting if we live to see it.

 

[ronki23]

A common Cold War scenario was the fear that the Red Army would pour into NATO countries with overwhelming numbers (their conventional forces far outnumbered ours in Europe). If that happened, the U.S. said they would use nukes (first strike) to stop the Soviet advance. That would cause the Soviets to respond in kind, at which point there would be an escalation.

Of course, the Soviets never invaded, so nuclear war never happened.

MacArthur wanted to use nukes against China in the Korean War, which is one of the reasons he was fired by Truman. At that time, China didn't have nukes, but the Soviets did. They could have retaliated. But the nuclear arms race was only just beginning at that early stage. Once they got to ICBMs, SLBMs, MIRV-ing missiles and tens of thousands of warheads on each side, it became utter insanity.

Some people feared that a nuclear war could be started by accident or some computer malfunction.

Mutually assured destruction. The only reason to use a nuke is if you are loosing and can't stand your enemies and what's left of you to survive the war. This, of course, is extremely stupid.

It would be extremely unpopular for China to take over N Korea. Korea has a long, long history of repelling invasions from China; and there is a belief that there is an underlying cause which will continue into the future. Its like...a superstition about continents and kingdoms as if they were destined to follow certain patterns. The Chinese influence in N Korea probably feels like deja vu.

Reunification seems likely but when I don't know when. I think the two Koreas still think of themselves as one despite everything that has happened, so reunification is probably a matter of decades. It will be very interesting if we live to see it.

What about a general invasion of South Korea or an attack on Japan (without nukes)?

This Covid sucks- I'm not going on an expensive trip to Japan / South Korea and have to wear a mask and social distance . That's why I will wait until 2022

 

[epronovost]

What about a general invasion of South Korea or an attack on Japan (without nukes)?

They have no such capacity. South Korea's defense budet is larger than the entire GDP of North Korea. NK army is surviving on starvation diet and has no competant officers. Their military doctrine is completely outdated and they would have to assault the DMZ, the most heavily fortified area in the world or use access tunnels that are inefficient at sending anything but a couple of saboteur units. The first strike capacity of NK is limited to its massive heavy artillery which can bomb Seoul and even then, those artillery pieces are falling appart hence their race to get nuclear weapons. As for Japan, they have no capacity to strike it and both Japan, South Korea and the US all have a mutual defense treaty agreement. If North Korea attempts a serious attack and something more than a few pot shot or kidnapping in the DMZ, they are dead (but so are around 150 000 people in Seoul hence why nobody moves).

 

[Brickjectivity]

What about a general invasion of South Korea or an attack on Japan (without nukes)?

This Covid sucks- I'm not going on an expensive trip to Japan / South Korea and have to wear a mask and social distance . That's why I will wait until 2022

Now that is way, way beyond my intuition; but they would be stupid to attack Japan. They probably know that. South Korea? Also not a good idea to invade them, either.

Here is an informative video about the situation in N Korea might shed some light for those who are unfamiliar with its recent History. This video is stunning. Basically there is this tower that has been under construction in N Korea for generations, and as he follows the story of its construction he explains how surrounding circumstances are affecting it. Currently it is an enormous, empty, expensive hulk covered in glass but otherwise useless.

 

[ronki23]

They have no such capacity. South Korea's defense budet is larger than the entire GDP of North Korea. NK army is surviving on starvation diet and has no competant officers. Their military doctrine is completely outdated and they would have to assault the DMZ, the most heavily fortified area in the world or use access tunnels that are inefficient at sending anything but a couple of saboteur units. The first strike capacity of NK is limited to its massive heavy artillery which can bomb Seoul and even then, those artillery pieces are falling appart hence their race to get nuclear weapons. As for Japan, they have no capacity to strike it and both Japan, South Korea and the US all have a mutual defense treaty agreement. If North Korea attempts a serious attack and something more than a few pot shot or kidnapping in the DMZ, they are dead (but so are around 150 000 people in Seoul hence why nobody moves).

Seoul has a population of 10 million, not 150,000

And doesn't North Korea buy Chinese and Russian weapons ?

 

[epronovost]

Seoul has a population of 10 million, not 150,000

Not all of them would die in a bombardment of the city either. There is not enough ammunition for that nor enough cannons either. Seoul also possess an impressive system of tunnels nad bunkers designed to protect the population from a suprise bombing.

And doesn't North Korea buy Chinese and Russian weapons ?

It actually build its own native version of soviet and chinese equipment and sometimes buy old weapons from these countries already aging arsenal. In other words, they buy the worst weapons of poorly maintained armies.

 

[ronki23]

Not all of them would die in a bombardment of the city either. There is not enough ammunition for that nor enough cannons either. Seoul also possess an impressive system of tunnels nad bunkers designed to protect the population from a suprise bombing.



It actually build its own native version of soviet and chinese equipment and sometimes buy old weapons from these countries already aging arsenal. In other words, they buy the worst weapons of poorly maintained armies.

That's an interesting graphic. In the case of Germany, it wasn't really just Germany, but all of Eastern Europe just started falling out. Some might attribute it to Gorbachev's more reformist policies, with glasnost and perestroika - trying to make the Soviet Union kinder and gentler. So, the other countries under their thumb saw it as an opportunity to break free from Soviet hegemony. I also recall an exodus of East Germans who went into Czechoslovakia and into West Germany from there.

Another key point is that Germany was considered an enemy nation, and dividing them up into occupation zones was what the Allies agreed to. However, one of the major disagreements was what to do with post-war Germany. Some wanted to totally dismantle their industries and make it impossible for them to ever make war again. But the US and UK wanted to rebuild West Germany and make it a strong Allied partner and NATO member.

Korea, on the other hand, was an unfortunate victim. Unlike Germany, they didn't really do anything to deserve to be divided up like that. The Soviets wanted a joint occupation and division of Japan, but the US refused that idea. But somehow, we went along with dividing up Korea.

But it is somewhat curious that the same wave that broke up the USSR and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact never really affected North Korea, which became even more entrenched and isolated.

It would be extremely unpopular for China to take over N Korea. Korea has a long, long history of repelling invasions from China; and there is a belief that there is an underlying cause which will continue into the future. Its like...a superstition about continents and kingdoms as if they were destined to follow certain patterns. The Chinese influence in N Korea probably feels like deja vu.

Reunification seems likely but when I don't know when. I think the two Koreas still think of themselves as one despite everything that has happened, so reunification is probably a matter of decades. It will be very interesting if we live to see it.

Now that is way, way beyond my intuition; but they would be stupid to attack Japan. They probably know that. South Korea? Also not a good idea to invade them, either.

Here is an informative video about the situation in N Korea might shed some light for those who are unfamiliar with its recent History. This video is stunning. Basically there is this tower that has been under construction in N Korea for generations, and as he follows the story of its construction he explains how surrounding circumstances are affecting it. Currently it is an enormous, empty, expensive hulk covered in glass but otherwise useless.

1) North Korea doesn't have many nukes but enough to destroy Seoul if they used all of their nukes ? Or would they aim for Tokyo ?

2) How can the Koreas be reunified ? Why makes them think of each other as brothers as opposed to thinking of them like foreign countries like China or Japan ?

 

[Brickjectivity]

1) North Korea doesn't have many nukes but enough to destroy Seoul if they used all of their nukes ? Or would they aim for Tokyo ?

I still think that is way, way beyond my intuition; but they would be stupid to attack Japan. They probably know that. South Korea? Also not a good idea to invade them, either or to destroy them. South Korea is the only thing they have going for them.

2) How can the Koreas be reunified ? Why makes them think of each other as brothers as opposed to thinking of them like foreign countries like China or Japan ?

Koreans have a lot of heart. This alone might be enough.