What Is Global Warming: The theory, the evidence, the problems.
Caveat
In what I write here, I am often sacrificing technical detail for the sake of those who are not familiar with the issues. I am more than happy to respond in greater detail to those who question or desire more information on any point I make. I have also attempted (as much as is possible with such a short explanation of theory and evidence) to accurately represent the views of both the experts who are AGW proponents and the experts who are skeptics. It should be noted that skeptics actually fall into quite diverse camps: those who think we cant know the earth is warming at all, such as Vincent Gray (these are in the extreme minority), those who acknowledge the earth is warming but dont believe we are the cause, those who acknowledge the earth is warming but argue we dont know the cause, and those who argue the earth is warming, we are (either marginally or significantly) contributing to this warming, but it isnt really a big problem).
Before getting into the basic theory of global warming, I would like to state the reason I think this thread is necessary. The seeds were planted by a response I received in another thread. Before quoting this response, I think some context would be helpful. In that thread, I stated that there has been and continues to be peer-reviewed studies questioning (in whole or in part) virtually every aspect of mainstream AGW (anthropogenic global warming, i.e. man-made) theory. I was asked to provide source, and did so. The person I quote below did no read any of the studies I cited. Rather, he read the abstract of one, misunderstood it, and claimed that I had probably just copied and pasted a list off of some website. The study was:
McKitrick, R. R., & Michaels, P. J. (2007). Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic surface processes and inhomogeneities on gridded global climate data. Journal of Geophysical Research 112.
The study is one of many detailing problems with the surface temperature record. However, I received this response:
The study says nothing of the sort. The person quoted above simply jumped on the word anthropogenic and assumed that all anthropogenic temperature increases are part of AGW. I disagreed, stating that AGW is concerned with anthropogenic influences in the atmosphere, to which he responded:
I will start by stating (again) my own position, putting my biases on the table. I am best described as a type of skeptic. I believe we can be pretty certain the climate HAS warmed over the last century. There are very, very, few experts who would deny this. I also believe that there is a good chance that anthropogenic emissions have caused and are causing an increase in the global temperature average, and that unless steps are taken this will continue.
However, I do NOT agree with the certainty level given by, say, the IPCC. I do NOT agree or find good evidence to support most of the doomsday scenarios given both in the mainstream media and in some scientific literature.
I am also not a climate scientist, nor am I a specialist in a related field. However, I have spent a long, long, long, time now reviewing books, monographs, journals, blogs, new, etc, concerning global warming, and I have a sufficient background in the math and science used (as well a familiarity with technical/expert publications) to understand a good deal of most of the technical arguments. This doesnt make me an expert, but it does give me a pretty good understanding and the ability to cite scientific literature which supports the points I make.
Caveat
In what I write here, I am often sacrificing technical detail for the sake of those who are not familiar with the issues. I am more than happy to respond in greater detail to those who question or desire more information on any point I make. I have also attempted (as much as is possible with such a short explanation of theory and evidence) to accurately represent the views of both the experts who are AGW proponents and the experts who are skeptics. It should be noted that skeptics actually fall into quite diverse camps: those who think we cant know the earth is warming at all, such as Vincent Gray (these are in the extreme minority), those who acknowledge the earth is warming but dont believe we are the cause, those who acknowledge the earth is warming but argue we dont know the cause, and those who argue the earth is warming, we are (either marginally or significantly) contributing to this warming, but it isnt really a big problem).
Before getting into the basic theory of global warming, I would like to state the reason I think this thread is necessary. The seeds were planted by a response I received in another thread. Before quoting this response, I think some context would be helpful. In that thread, I stated that there has been and continues to be peer-reviewed studies questioning (in whole or in part) virtually every aspect of mainstream AGW (anthropogenic global warming, i.e. man-made) theory. I was asked to provide source, and did so. The person I quote below did no read any of the studies I cited. Rather, he read the abstract of one, misunderstood it, and claimed that I had probably just copied and pasted a list off of some website. The study was:
McKitrick, R. R., & Michaels, P. J. (2007). Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic surface processes and inhomogeneities on gridded global climate data. Journal of Geophysical Research 112.
The study is one of many detailing problems with the surface temperature record. However, I received this response:
The study is concluding that global warming is occurring, and that mankind is definitively having an impact. Its point of contention is that the study does not allow Laat and Maurellis to support the idea that GHG (green house gases) are a contributing factor...Perhaps if you had actually read some of the studies that you linked ...
The study says nothing of the sort. The person quoted above simply jumped on the word anthropogenic and assumed that all anthropogenic temperature increases are part of AGW. I disagreed, stating that AGW is concerned with anthropogenic influences in the atmosphere, to which he responded:
It occurred to me that there may be a much larger group (than this one individual) who are either supporting or denying global warming without an adequate understanding of what it is. So, the purpose of this thread is three-fold: 1) To give a fairly basic explanation of what the theory of global warming actually is. 2) To give some of the central points of evidence in favor of this theory. 3) To give some central points of evidence contrary to (at least parts of) this theory.Uh, no. Anthropogenic Global Warming is NOT limited to the single point that emissions cause the increase in atmospheric temperatures. You do not understand the very term that you are now trying to debate. Anthropogenic means "man made". It is NOT limited to emissions. It DOES include all impacts that man has had on the climate (including buildings, deforestation, etc.).
I will start by stating (again) my own position, putting my biases on the table. I am best described as a type of skeptic. I believe we can be pretty certain the climate HAS warmed over the last century. There are very, very, few experts who would deny this. I also believe that there is a good chance that anthropogenic emissions have caused and are causing an increase in the global temperature average, and that unless steps are taken this will continue.
However, I do NOT agree with the certainty level given by, say, the IPCC. I do NOT agree or find good evidence to support most of the doomsday scenarios given both in the mainstream media and in some scientific literature.
I am also not a climate scientist, nor am I a specialist in a related field. However, I have spent a long, long, long, time now reviewing books, monographs, journals, blogs, new, etc, concerning global warming, and I have a sufficient background in the math and science used (as well a familiarity with technical/expert publications) to understand a good deal of most of the technical arguments. This doesnt make me an expert, but it does give me a pretty good understanding and the ability to cite scientific literature which supports the points I make.