Universe slowing or accelerating?

[Ryan2065]

Your arguments are getting thin. Homo sapiens has had space technology for what, about 50 to 60 years? What about a species that had it for a million years? I think we would expect a little more.

Wouldn't us not seeing these aliens also lend credit to an idea that there are tons of other civilizations in the galaxy that are all busy warring with other planets that they don't have the time or the resources to colonize other planets?

 

[logician]

"Wouldn't us not seeing these aliens also lend credit to an idea that there are tons of other civilizations in the galaxy that are all busy warring with other planets that they don't have the time or the resources to colonize other planets?"

Stephen Hawking, one of the most intelligent men on our planet, has said that colonizing other planets may be the only hope for the long-term survival of mankind.
Don't you think other "intelligent" aliens which had been around for a million years or so might come to the same conclusion. If they did, they would very likely seek and find earth. However, we see no evidence of this, making the liklihood of "tons" of other civilizations existing quite low.

 

[JerryL]

Stephen Hawking, one of the most intelligent men on our planet, has said that colonizing other planets may be the only hope for the long-term survival of mankind.

And Issac Newton, an equalloy intelligent man believed in Alchemy. What's the point of your appeal to authority?

Don't you think other "intelligent" aliens which had been around for a million years or so might come to the same conclusion. If they did, they would very likely seek and find earth. However, we see no evidence of this, making the liklihood of "tons" of other civilizations existing quite low.

What makes you think that an advanced civilization can survive for a million years?

 

[logician]

"What's the point of your appeal to authority?"

The "point" is that the intelligencia of alien races may well decide that colonization of space is their only hope of survival, particularly if circumstances get bad on the home planet. Actually, I don't think there are other intelligent species in our galaxy that have been around a million years and are capable of space travel, given the lack of evidence of any such beings.

 

[JerryL]

The "point" is that the intelligencia of alien races may well decide that colonization of space is their only hope of survival, particularly if circumstances get bad on the home planet. Actually, I don't think there are other intelligent species in our galaxy that have been around a million years and are capable of space travel, given the lack of evidence of any such beings.

Yes, they *might*. And it might be possible. And it might involve Sol.

Or they might not, or it might not be possible, or it might not involve Sol.

This "million year" criteria is a new one you've added to your original position.

 

[JerryL]

The "point" is that the intelligencia of alien races may well decide that colonization of space is their only hope of survival, particularly if circumstances get bad on the home planet. Actually, I don't think there are other intelligent species in our galaxy that have been around a million years and are capable of space travel, given the lack of evidence of any such beings.

Yes, they *might*. And it might be possible. And it might involve Sol.

Or they might not, or it might not be possible, or it might not involve Sol.

This "million year" criteria is a new one you've added to your original position.

 

[Ryan2065]

Stephen Hawking, one of the most intelligent men on our planet, has said that colonizing other planets may be the only hope for the long-term survival of mankind.
Don't you think other "intelligent" aliens which had been around for a million years or so might come to the same conclusion. If they did, they would very likely seek and find earth. However, we see no evidence of this, making the liklihood of "tons" of other civilizations existing quite low.

You are assuming these aliens are going to screw up like us =)

 

[logician]

"You are assuming these aliens are going to screw up like us "

There are other situations where a home planet might become a dangerous place, like an approaching collision with an asteroid, few natural resources to begin with, their home star becoming unstable, etc.

 

[thelynchpin]

So, let me get this straight...

Wanderer, you're saying you don't believe in intelligent life, other than us, in our galaxy because you don't know of any evidence supporting the fact that there is intelligent life out there?

What I am suggesting is that there is a possibility that some people do have evidence. Just because you or I don't possess such evidence doesn't mean others don't, such as certain Governments...

Who is to say that if a Governement did possess such evidence, that they'd let everyone else know about it?

 

[logician]

"Wanderer, you're saying you don't believe in intelligent life, other than us, in our galaxy because you don't know of any evidence supporting the fact that there is intelligent life out there"

Actually, I'm saying the probability of intelligent life that is capable of SPACE TRAVEL is very low, for reasons given before. I can make no statements regarding intelligent life that may not be that advanced, since there is no way of detecting this kind of civilization.

 

[Ryan2065]

Actually, I'm saying the probability of intelligent life that is capable of SPACE TRAVEL is very low, for reasons given before. I can make no statements regarding intelligent life that may not be that advanced, since there is no way of detecting this kind of civilization.

Actually you are saying the probability of alien life that is capable of space travel that has had it for millions of years is low =)

 

[Ryan2065]

Oh, I just had another thought... As far as probability goes...

Lets say you flip a coin 10 times in a row... you get heads each time.

Whats the probability you will get heads the next time?

I'll leave you all in suspense

 

[logician]

"Whats the probability you will get heads the next time?"

50 percent or .5.

I majored in statistics.

 

[logician]

"Whats the probability you will get heads the next time?"

50 percent or .5.

I majored in statistics.

 

[Ryan2065]

50 percent or .5.

I majored in statistics.

No offense, but I find this hard to believe seeing your statistical reasoning on this thread. I graduated in May with a degree in mathematics myself.

 

[logician]

"No offense, but I find this hard to believe seeing your statistical reasoning on this thread"

That's funny, I'm thinking the same thing about you.

 

[JerryL]

I haven't noticed that the math is the problem so much as the presuppositions.

I didn't major in math. I majored in Electrical Engineering (after switching from Computer Science) with a minor in math; but I do love data... how to draw it and how to shape it into conclusions.

As I've already said, the conclusions are based on a great deal of assumption. While wanderer has posted up reasons he thinks his assumptions are correct, he's given me no compelling reason to believe that an alien intelligence would make a concerted attempt to contact others. He's given me no reason to believe that they would make a concerted attempt to physically examine the rest of the planets in the galaxy, and he's given me no reason to believe that the technology he believes is createable is indeed possible or inevitable.

We could put a colony on the Moon. We have not.
We could build a very powerful radio transmitter to attempt to contact alien life. We have not.
We could send probes at other solar-systems. I believe the travel time is around 400 years. I also believe that powering a probe this long is possible. We have not.

It's bad enough to assume that someone else will do what you do... it's far worse to assume they will arbitrarily do something that you have not done under similar conditions.

 

[logician]

"We could put a colony on the Moon. We have not.
We could build a very powerful radio transmitter to attempt to contact alien life. We have not.
We could send probes at other solar-systems. I believe the travel time is around 400 years. I also believe that powering a probe this long is possible. We have not.
"

And again, we have only had the technology of space travel and computers for decades, aliens that presumably have been around for a much longer time, would have a much higher probability of attempting these things. We are definitely attempting to
DETECT alien life, so why wouldn't they try to contact or detect us, if they existed.

 

[JerryL]

And again, we have only had the technology of space travel and computers for decades, aliens that presumably have been around for a much longer time, would have a much higher probability of attempting these things.

On what do you base this probabilty. We have done it zero times. If they are a million times more likely that would be zero times.

Maybe aliens would invest their entire cultural and economic energy into finding and making their presence known to other lifeforms.

Maybe they would get really distracted waching higher-def TV and veg on the couch for a million years.

What are the odds of one over the other. Hrm... let's see. How much data do we have on how aliens behave.... erm. Zero!

How much do we have on intelligences in the universe? Well, so far 100% of them have stayed on their home planet. 0% have invested heavily in making themselves known to others.

Let's draw out these statistics. In a universe 10% populatied, that has 0 travelling the stars and 100% not.

Again. Where do you draw the base data for your conclusions, other than your simple assuption that something you know nothing about would behave, not only in a way different from the only example we have, but in the way you've decided they would?

We are definitely attempting to DETECT alien life, so why wouldn't they try to contact or detect us, if they existed.

Hypothetically? Because they are all cowards, because they ran out of power, because there's a fleet of stealth-ships cruising around the universe looking for powerful signials to raid inhabited worlds for olives and cocktail weenies.

How would I know. I have absolutely no data on any life outside of Earth. Neither do you. The difference is that I'm not making conclusions that require that I have knowledge I don't have. You are.

 

[Super Universe]

"We could put a colony on the Moon. We have not.
We could build a very powerful radio transmitter to attempt to contact alien life. We have not.
We could send probes at other solar-systems. I believe the travel time is around 400 years. I also believe that powering a probe this long is possible. We have not.
"

And again, we have only had the technology of space travel and computers for decades, aliens that presumably have been around for a much longer time, would have a much higher probability of attempting these things. We are definitely attempting to
DETECT alien life, so why wouldn't they try to contact or detect us, if they existed.

A colony on the moon? To do what? Waste billions of dollars and return nothing. The moon is a gravity well, a waste of fuel, not a resting point on the way to mars.

A powerful transmitter? Radio signals, no way. Not possible to make one powerful enough for at least another 100 years.

A light beam (laser) transmitter? Sure, it's possible or we could explode nuclear weapons in space as a kind of morse code but then why? So they can tell us to stop spreading deadly neutrino's or hazardous focussed light beams?

Probes to other solar systems? Way, way, way beyond current technology. Sure we could send one, in fact there are some on their way to other systems now but there is no way to retrieve any information from them.

Why wouldn't they try to contact us? Maybe they follow a strict policy of non-interference?