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The COVID-19 Situation in Egypt

Debater Slayer

Vipassana
Staff member
Premium Member
Over the last few weeks, the forum has had numerous threads about the COVID-19 situation in different parts of the Western world. After some hesitation and considerable thought, I have decided to relay the situation in Egypt as well. Even for many inside the country itself, the situation remains relatively nebulous and, to some, deceptively reassuring.

Important disclaimer: Please note that, for reasons I would rather not go into, I can only provide so much commentary on the situation without potentially compromising on specific concerns. I will consequently focus on providing a summary as neutral and fact-based as possible--although this may prove challenging in an age when apathy and silence (neither of which I endorse regarding this subject, despite adopting a neutral tone in this thread for other reasons) are so often tantamount to tacit approval.

The first thing to point out here is that Egypt, being a third-world country with a struggling economy and crumbling infrastructure, has had a difficult time finding the best compromising approach toward the virus. I say "compromising" because in the best of scenarios, what the Egyptian government and people can do is mere damage control to various extents of effectiveness and casualties. Decades-old, deep-seated economic, social, and healthcare issues don't simply disappear once a pandemic appears, something Egypt is now grappling with perhaps more than at any previous time.

Even if we had Plato and the wisest philosopher kings running our country at this time, we would still be in major trouble due to the mound of issues affecting the country and dating as far back as the early '60s. State hospitals, for example, are far more often than not unsanitary, poorly equipped, and barely able to accommodate a fraction of the 100-million Egyptians on the best of days. Couple this with a pandemic requiring extensive equipment, staffing (and most medical staff in the public sector are severely underpaid, by the way), and infrastructure and you have a recipe for a dark tunnel that the country has been running into at full speed since COVID-19 reached our borders.

There have been some efforts by the government to combat the pandemic, such as a partial lockdown, decontamination of some public facilities such as some universities and schools, and replacing school and university exams for all but senior university students with online assignments.

However, testing for the virus is currently lacking, costly, and perhaps something of a luxury that most simply can't afford. Some areas of quarantine have been reported by patients to be unsanitary and paradoxically crowded--some Egyptians coming from abroad have claimed that up to six people are sometimes quarantined together in the same room. And yet, despite the relatively limited testing and underreporting of cases, the most recent figure stands at more than 10,000 confirmed cases.

In a country where overcrowded public transportation and blue-collar jobs are absolutely essential for millions, it is easily imaginable that the actual number of cases is most likely far higher than this. Furthermore, many people are under the impression that it is acceptable or safe to carry on living as normal during the hours outside the lockdown--which only lasts from 9 PM to 6 AM.

Perhaps the most complicated issue in Egypt, aside from all of the above, is that complete lockdown may indeed prove to be as costly as the pandemic itself in the human aspect. Many blue-collar workers are already feeling the brunt of the pandemic. Whereas it is simply a hypothetical scenario for higher-middle-class people and above to starve or possibly die or be disabled as a result of being unable to afford bare basics such as food and health care, this is the reality for millions of working-class Egyptians. Furthermore, referring back to the decades-old issues I mentioned above, the country is currently unable to provide much assistance to the millions in need and the millions more who will be if a complete shutdown takes place. This is a poor country with lacking infrastructure, and we have recently been reminded of this and had it laid bare more than any time before. Layoffs, increased unemployment and poverty, and a country-wide outbreak resulting in possibly tens of thousands or more of hospitalizations or deaths are only a part of a bigger picture that is both shrouded in uncertainty and gloom.

Overall, the COVID-19 situation in Egypt is both dangerous and ill-handled both on a social and state level. Many people either don't realize the seriousness of the situation or don't care enough to follow precautions, and those who do can't do much about the ones who don't. Meanwhile, the state has neither the means nor the years-long preparation of infrastructure and economy required to successfully stand in the face of a pandemic of this size and novelty without significant human casualties. There is much to be said about whether the state has the drive, motivation, or concern about the well-being of its citizens to exert serious anti-pandemic effort in the first place, but that is a subject I will avoid for concerns I would rather not delve into.

I hope this was a useful read to you. Stay safe out there, wherever you are!
 
Last edited:

sun rise

The world is on fire
Premium Member
Thanks for the detailed report. It underlines how bad the situation is in countries that don't have a decent health care system and an advanced economy.

And yet, despite the relatively limited testing and underreporting of cases, the most recent figure stands at more than 10,000 confirmed cases.

Even in the developed nations, confirmed cases is only a minimum number with people looking for other measures to determine what the true infection rate is. Even the death count is inaccurate. One measure is excess deaths - how many more have died than expected for this time of year. The worst example of undercounting deaths I've seen is Russia as today's number illustrates. Less than 10% of Western European nations with the same infection rate?

Capture.PNG


Looking at Egypt in that light, the closest comparison is Denmark. Given what you've written about the situation in Egypt, I have to believe that the reported death toll is much worse than the actual death toll by comparison to the lousy numbers for other nations.

Capture.PNG
 

Shadow Wolf

Certified People sTabber
Over the last few weeks, the forum has had numerous threads about the COVID-19 situation in different parts of the Western world. After some hesitation and considerable thought, I have decided to relay the situation in Egypt as well. Even for many inside the country itself, the situation remains relatively nebulous and, to some, deceptively reassuring.

Important disclaimer: Please note that, for reasons I would rather not go into, I can only provide so much commentary on the situation without potentially compromising on specific concerns. I will consequently focus on providing a summary as neutral and fact-based as possible--although this may prove challenging in an age when apathy and silence (neither of which I endorse regarding this subject, despite adopting a neutral tone in this thread for other reasons) are so often tantamount to tacit approval.

The first thing to point out here is that Egypt, being a third-world country with a struggling economy and crumbling infrastructure, has had a difficult time finding the best compromising approach toward the virus. I say "compromising" because in the best of scenarios, what the Egyptian government and people can do is mere damage control to various extents of effectiveness and casualties. Decades-old, deep-seated economic, social, and healthcare issues don't simply disappear once a pandemic appears, something Egypt is now grappling with perhaps more than at any previous time.

Even if we had Plato and the wisest philosopher kings running our country at this time, we would still be in major trouble due to the mound of issues affecting the country and dating as far back as the early '60s. State hospitals, for example, are far more often than not unsanitary, poorly equipped, and barely able to accommodate a fraction of the 100-million Egyptians on the best of days. Couple this with a pandemic requiring extensive equipment, staffing (and most medical staff in the public sector are severely underpaid, by the way), and infrastructure and you have a recipe for a dark tunnel that the country has been running into at full speed since COVID-19 reached our borders.

There have been some efforts by the government to combat the pandemic, such as a partial lockdown, decontamination of some public facilities such as some universities and schools, and replacing school and university exams for all but senior university students with online assignments.

However, testing for the virus is currently lacking, costly, and perhaps something of a luxury that most simply can't afford. Some areas of quarantine have been reported by patients to be unsanitary and paradoxically crowded--some Egyptians coming from abroad have claimed that up to six people are sometimes quarantined together in the same room. And yet, despite the relatively limited testing and underreporting of cases, the most recent figure stands at more than 10,000 confirmed cases.

In a country where overcrowded public transportation and blue-collar jobs are absolutely essential for millions, it is easily imaginable that the actual number of cases is most likely far higher than this. Furthermore, many people are under the impression that it is acceptable or safe to carry on living as normal during the hours outside the lockdown--which only lasts from 9 PM to 6 AM.

Perhaps the most complicated issue in Egypt, aside from all of the above, is that complete lockdown may indeed prove to be as costly as the pandemic itself in the human aspect. Many blue-collar workers are already feeling the brunt of the pandemic. Whereas it is simply a hypothetical scenario for higher-middle-class people and above to starve or possibly die or be disabled as a result of being unable to afford bare basics such as food and health care, this is the reality for millions of working-class Egyptians. Furthermore, referring back to the decades-old issues I mentioned above, the country is currently unable to provide much assistance to the millions in need and the millions more who will be if a complete shutdown takes place. This is a poor country with lacking infrastructure, and we have recently been reminded of this and had it laid bare more than any time before. Layoffs, increased unemployment and poverty, and a country-wide outbreak resulting in possibly tens of thousands or more of hospitalizations or deaths are only a part of a bigger picture that is both shrouded in uncertainty and gloom.

Overall, the COVID-19 situation in Egypt is both dangerous and ill-handled both on a social and state level. Many people either don't realize the seriousness of the situation or don't care enough to follow precautions, and those who do can't do much about the ones who don't. Meanwhile, the state has neither the means nor the years-long preparation of infrastructure and economy required to successfully stand in the face of a pandemic of this size and novelty without significant human casualties. There is much to be said about whether the state has the drive, motivation, or concern about the well-being of its citizens to exert serious anti-pandemic effort in the first place, but that is a subject I will avoid for concerns I would rather not delve into.

I hope this was a useful read to you. Stay safe out there, wherever you are!
Stay safe from all that there!:heart:
 

Aupmanyav

Be your own guru
I have to believe that the reported death toll is much worse than the actual death toll by comparison to the lousy numbers for other nations.
I do not think there is any intentional misreporting in Indian figures, though they may not be 100% correct. Just because there are more deaths in US and Europe, it is wrong to think that those countries where there have been less deaths are misreporting. Of course, the number of infected or those of dead may change anytime.

India: Total cases: 70,756, Active: 46,081, Recovered: 22,455, Dead 2,293
 

sun rise

The world is on fire
Premium Member
I do not think there is any intentional misreporting in Indian figures, though they may not be 100% correct. Just because there are more deaths in US and Europe, it is wrong to think that those countries where there have been less deaths are misreporting. Of course, the number of infected or those of dead may change anytime.

India: Total cases: 70,756, Active: 46,081, Recovered: 22,455, Dead 2,293
I was not thinking of India when I posted.

One note about cause of death that makes the numbers questionable is determining that someone died from the virus. It's been noted that when there's not enough testing to go around, priority is given to the living.

Even then some report deaths when it's known that they died from the virus and some report those who died with symptoms but no test.
 

Aupmanyav

Be your own guru
When there is a corona death in India it is known in 17 villages. There are problems in disposing the body either by cremation or by burial. Many a times, police has to intervene. People fear that the infection will somehow spread. Corona deaths are not ordinary deaths. :)

What makes the numbers more or less reliable in India is a strong political opposition and a media divided in two camps. Half the states are governed by Modi's party and the other half by the opposition. So, we have a nice balance with no clear majority in the Senate (our so-called Upper House - Rajya Sabha). Modi has to seek support from other parties to get the proposed laws ratified.
 
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