Jay,
re: "So, it's uncaused, unnecessary ... "
I think that when a new belief is realized that it is indeed caused, most likely by a process occurring in the subconscious mind due to an exposure to outside stimuli, such as literature, lectures, media, and conversation.
Im not sure what you mean by unnecessary, though.
re: "...if you want yet another thread on free will, let's make it yet another thread. OK?"
OK with me, but Im not sure that a free will issue is what were talking about here. Free will to me is to be free from any outside restraint preventing the pursuit or fulfillment of ones desires. It does not mean , however, that the object of ones will or desire has to be realized. It also does not mean that the development of ones will or desire cannot be influenced by outside sources.
In your post #3, because you introduced Pascals Wager into the discussion as representative of the "insurance policy" that the OP was mentioning, I thought that a comment should be made regarding the basic premise of the Wager. If my comment were true, then any further discussion would be academic.
Also, you have a question directed to you in post # 22.