Likelihood of War with Iran?

[Mathematician]

Most of us are aware that President Bush, Vice President Cheney, and Secretary of State Rice are pressuring Iran with not only White House rhetoric, but a show of force. Many feel that the United States is about to be dropped in a war with Iran, but how is this possible with Iraq being as unfavorable as it is, not to mention Bush's approval ratings? Will the dreaded draft be an option?

Or will Israel bomb Iran with our silent consent?

Or, will nothing happen?

 

[ChrisP]

I'm going to go with option B...

 

[Booko]

Most of us are aware that President Bush, Vice President Cheney, and Secretary of State Rice are pressuring Iran with not only White House rhetoric, but a show of force. Many feel that the United States is about to be dropped in a war with Iran, but how is this possible with Iraq being as unfavorable as it is, not to mention Bush's approval ratings? Will the dreaded draft be an option?

The draft is not an option under these conditions.

However, remember the summer before we invaded Iraq, when Bush started making random noises about it? It took until the Fall for them to get serious pushing the idea to Congress and the U.N. and until March 2003 for the forces to be deployed.

If Bush is making noises now, it'll take at least a year for him to be able to do anything that serious in Iran. At least if he's going to do anything big and obvious.

That said, there are still some possibilitlies for cowboy approaches to the Iran problem.

1. He can send in "recon in force" from Iraq, on the grounds that he's chasing down terrorists.

2. He has the resources to order an aerial bombardment. No one can stop him, short of his generals refusing a direct order. Not likely.

Or will Israel bomb Iran with our silent consent?

First, I don't think the Iraelis are that stupid. They won't hesitate to act if there's something immanent, as they did with Saddam, but hitting the Iranian bunkers effectively frankly may require some special ordnance like Bunker Busters "plus," because the Iranians learned from Saddam they need to bury the stuff further down. The IDF doesn't have that ordnance.*

Second, look at the trouble the IDF had with just Hezbollah next door in Lebanon.


And now the crazed hen goes into military lecture mode, sorry, but these are things they will not print in the papers, simply because the journalists (a.k.a. "communications majors") don't understand even the basics. It's not actually that difficult to understand, but it has nothing to do with Hollywood or car crashes or notorious criminals so they don't think we need to know or that we'd be interested.

BUNKER BUSTERS

Conventional bunker busters are not just really big bombs. They have an extremely hard casing and an antennae like protrusion. The antenna like pointy thing on the front drills into the ground, paving the way for the bomb part that follows. This allows the bomb to penetrate further down into the soil, thus the name "bunker buster."

As I mentioned, the Iranians have buried many of their sites much deeper, beyond the ability of conventional bunker busters to eliminate the target.

*Bunker busters plus, a.k.a. nuclear bunker busters, are the only thing I can think of that could take out the Iranian sites.

That assumes that we even know where all the sites are (doubtful) though it may be sufficient to just disrupt their programme.

While officially we have never deveoped nuclear bunker busters for ordinary military use, we have indeedy done testing on them. For those who think we are unable to use such a system, I refer you to the effects of the "test" versions of H-bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Officially, we have not developed nuclear bunker busters. However, those of you acquainted with military R&D also have heard of "black budget" items. There is no way for us to know whether we have anything available like this or not. I consider it possible.

Wiki actually has some decent layman-level articles on these subjects:

Nuclear Bunker Buster
Conventional Bunker Buster

Or, will nothing happen?

I honestly don't know.

If Bush can find a motivation for invading Iran, like something horrible happening here that he can pin on them, he will have all the excuse and all the troops and voter approval he needs to invade.

I know that's in the realm of conspiracy theory and all, but if you'd told me in 2002 that he could get people to believe that Saddam had anything to do with 9/11, I wouldn't have believed that either.

 

[greatcalgarian]

Bush is waiting for another 9/11.

If the conspiracy theorists are correct about how and why the last one took place, the plan for the new 9/11 will take place pretty soon. Most likely on the eve of the end of term of Bush, and he can declare a national emergency, and remain President for another undefined period of time, and plan and invade Iran........

 

[greatcalgarian]

The following text by Colonel Sam Gardiner (USAF, Retired) confirms our worst fears. The US is in an advanced state of readiness to wage war on Iran.
http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=GAR20070116&articleId=4483

The pieces are moving. They’ll be in place by the end of February. The United States will be able to escalate military operations against Iran.

The second carrier strike group leaves the U.S. west coast on Tuesday. It will be joined by naval mine clearing assets from both the United States and the UK. Patriot missile defense systems have also been ordered to deploy to the Gulf.

Maybe as a guard against North Korea seeing operations focused on Iran as a chance to be aggressive, a squadron of F-117 stealth fighters has just been deployed to Korea.

 

[greatcalgarian]

Iranian military troops have shot down a spy plane of the US army during the last few days, an Iranian MP said here on Tuesday.

Representative of Dasht-e Azadegan at the Islamic Consultative Assembly, Seyed Nezam Mola Hoveizeh also told FNA that the aircraft has been a spy drone of the US army and that it has been shot down when trying to cross the borders.

"Americans send such spy drones to the region every now and then," the lawmaker further pointed out.

The drone is seeking out the information on the weak point and where to attack etc. So this is a pre-war plan being executed already. The war may not be far away.

 

[Booko]

The second carrier strike group leaves the U.S. west coast on Tuesday. It will be joined by naval mine clearing assets from both the United States and the UK. Patriot missile defense systems have also been ordered to deploy to the Gulf.

Actually, you do point out something that's worth keeping an eye on, GC. Also, the new guy in charge of CENTCOM is a Navy man. While there are perfectly normal explanations for this that have to do with military politics, that and the movement of the carrier task force towards Iraq doesn't exactly thrill me. Iraq has very little coast -- but Iran can be attacked effectively from that direction.

It's a situation that deserves keeping an eye on.

 

[Booko]

The drone is seeking out the information on the weak point and where to attack etc. So this is a pre-war plan being executed already. The war may not be far away.

I've already said in a few places here that if we haven't been in Iran in some way, we are fools.

Of *course* they send spy drones over Iran, GC. They're trying to fix locations and activities around Iranian nuke sites.

Duh!

I'd be shocked if we haven't done this for at least a year or two.

And yeah, you can bet we've had some Spec Ops boots taking a closer look as well.

That doesn't mean war is immanent. It means if worse comes to worse, we'd like to know what targets to hit.

I don't see the Europeans in any position to gather that sort of intelligence. But you know, *someone* has to figure out what Ahmadinejad is up to.

Seriously, there are some easy-to-read decent primers on modern military doctrine. Go read one, and you won't step into so much mess assuming things are somehow "special" that are really just routine.

 

[greatcalgarian]

Watch this if you still think Iran war is pretty soon with this mad president:

This MNSBC news program blasts President Bush for his address to the Nation.

Is the media/political consensus breaking up?

Is there a fracturing of the bipartisan fabric? Are divisions emerging from within the Armed Forces?


CLICK HERE TO VIEW VIDEO

 

[greatcalgarian]

I've already said in a few places here that if we haven't been in Iran in some way, we are fools.

Of *course* they send spy drones over Iran, GC. They're trying to fix locations and activities around Iranian nuke sites.

Duh!

I'd be shocked if we haven't done this for at least a year or two.

And yeah, you can bet we've had some Spec Ops boots taking a closer look as well.

That doesn't mean war is immanent. It means if worse comes to worse, we'd like to know what targets to hit.

I don't see the Europeans in any position to gather that sort of intelligence. But you know, *someone* has to figure out what Ahmadinejad is up to.

Seriously, there are some easy-to-read decent primers on modern military doctrine. Go read one, and you won't step into so much mess assuming things are somehow "special" that are really just routine.

The drone event is special, because the frequency must has increased by so many times that even with the poor air defence, Iran was able to find one and shoot that one down.

 

[Booko]

Watch this if you still think Iran war is pretty soon with this mad president:

Sorry, it's a pain in the rear for me to watch video, so I mostly don't.

This MNSBC news program blasts President Bush for his address to the Nation.

What was it? Keith Olberman?

Is the media/political consensus breaking up?

What media/political consensus? Go watch Keith Olberman on MSNBC and Sean Hannity on FOX and then come back and tell me there's a media consensus.

Is there a fracturing of the bipartisan fabric?

What bipartisan fabric? We haven't had that fabric around for quite a while, and the curtains may need redoing as they are quite shredded with age, but good luck with that.

Are divisions emerging from within the Armed Forces?

Where have you been the last few years, GC? The top brass are deciding to retire at a rather unusual rate. Some of them even then go on to write books critical of our handling of recent events.

From a military point of view, that's the same as this: :shout:

CLICK HERE TO VIEW VIDEO[/quote]

 

[greatcalgarian]

KUWAIT CITY: Washington will launch a military strike on Iran before April 2007, say sources. The attack will be launched from the sea and Patriot missiles will guard all oil-producing countries in the region, they add. Recent statements emanating from the United States indicate the Bush administration's new strategy for Iraq doesn't include any proposal to make a compromise or negotiate with Syria or Iran. A reliable source said President Bush recently held a meeting with Vice President Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Secretary of State Dr Condoleezza Rice and other assistants in the White House where they discussed the plan to attack Iran in minute detail.
According to the source, Vice President Dick Cheney highlighted the threat posed by Iran to not only Saudi Arabia but the whole region. "Tehran is not playing politics. Iranian leaders are using their country's religious influence to support the aggressive regime's ambition to expand," the source quoted Dick Cheney as saying. Indicating participants of the meeting agreed to impose restrictions on the ambitions of Iranian regime before April 2007 without exposing other countries in the region to any danger, the source said "they have chosen April as British Prime Minister Tony Blair has said it will be the last month in office for him. The United States has to take action against Iran and Syria before April 2007."
Claiming the attack will be launched from the sea and not from any country in the region, he said "the US and its allies will target the oil installations and nuclear facilities of Iran ensuring there is no environmental catastrophe or after effects." "Already the US has started sending its warships to the Gulf and the build-up will continue until Washington has the required number by the end of this month," the source said. "US forces in Iraq and other countries in the region will be protected against any Iranian missile attack by an advanced Patriot missile system."
He went on to say "although US Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Dr Condoleezza Rice suggested postponing the attack, President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney insisted on attacking Tehran without any negotiations based on the lesson they learnt in Iraq recently." The Bush administration believes attacking Iran will create a new power balance in the region, calm down the situation in Iraq and pave the way for their democratic project, which had to be suspended due to the interference of Tehran and Damascus in Iraq, he continued. The attack on Iran will weaken the Syrian regime, which will eventually fade away, the source said.
Ahmed Al-Jarallah is Editor-in-Chief of The Arab Times.

Too scary to believe if it is really going to happen in April!

 

[Booko]

The drone event is special, because the frequency must has increased by so many times that even with the poor air defence, Iran was able to find one and shoot that one down.

Yeah, they said they shot one down. And who knows -- maybe they even did.

Since you do like videos, I'd suggest this one. It reminds me of some of the sorts of claims I expect to hear from Ahmadinejad. Dunno why.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_4vbz6E0vg

 

[greatcalgarian]

Impeach Bush—Stop Iran Invasion


by Paul Craig Roberts

Global Research, January 15, 2007
VDARE.COM - 2007-01-12

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When are the American people and their representatives in Congress and the military going to wake up and realize that the US has an insane war criminal in the White House who is destroying all chances for peace in the world and establishing a police state in the US?
Americans don’t have much time to realize this and to act before it is too late. Bush’s "surge" speech last Wednesday night makes it completely clear that his real purpose is to start wars with Iran and Syria before failure in Iraq brings an end to the neoconservative/Israeli plan to establish hegemony over the Middle East.
The "surge" gives Congress, the media, and the foreign policy establishment something to debate and oppose, while Bush sets his plans in motion to orchestrate a war with Iran.
Suddenly, we are hearing Bush regime propaganda that there are Iranian networks operating within Iraq that are working with the Iraqi insurgency and killing US troops. This assertion is a lie and preposterous on its face. Iranian Shi’ites are not going to arm Iraqi Sunnis, who are more focused on killing Iraqi Shi’ites allied with Iran than on killing US troops. If the Iranians wanted to cause the US trouble in Iraq, they would encourage Iraqi Shi’ites to join the insurgency against US forces. An insurgency drawn from 80% of the Iraqi population would overwhelm the US forces.
CBS reports that the news organization has been told by US officials "that American forces have begun an aggressive and mostly secret ground campaign against networks of Iranians that had been operating with virtual impunity inside Iraq." To manufacture evidence in behalf of this lie to feed to the gullible American public, US forces invaded an Iranian consulate in northern Iraq and kidnapped 5 consulate officials, claiming the Iranians were part of plans "to kill Americans." In typical Orwellian fashion, Secretary of State Condi Rice described Bush’s aggression against Iran as designed to confront Tehran’s aggression.
Iraqi government officials in the Kurdish province and the Iraqi foreign minister have refused to go along with Bush’s propaganda ploy. Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari announced that the Iranian officials were no threat and were working in a liaison office that had Iraqi government approval and was in the process of being elevated into a consulate.
The Iraqi foreign minister said that US troops tried to seize more innocent people at the Irbil airport but were prevented by Kurdish troops.
The Kurds, of course, have been allies of the US forces, but Bush is willing to alienate the Kurds in the interest of provoking a war with Iran.
If Bush is unable to orchestrate war with Iran directly, he will orchestrate war indirectly by having US troops attack Iraqi Shi’ite militias. Bush has already given orders for US troops to attack the Iraqi Shi’ite militias, who oppose the Sunnis and have not been part of the insurgency. Obviously, once Bush can get US troops in open warfare with Iraqi Shi’ites, the situation for US troops in Iraq will quickly go down hill. Bush will be able to blame Iranian Shi’ites for arming Iraqi Shi’ites that he can say are killing US troops.

 

[greatcalgarian]

Bush has also ordered the Persian Gulf to be congested with two US aircraft carrier attack groups. There is no military or diplomatic reason for even one attack group to be in the Persian Gulf. If Bush fails to orchestrate a war with Iran by kidnapping its officials or by attacking Shi’ite militias, he can orchestrate an event like the Tonkin Gulf incident or have the Israelis pull another USS Liberty incident and blame the Iranians.
The Tonkin Gulf incident was used by the Johnson administration to deceive Congress and to involve the US in the Vietnam War. Johnson alleged a North Vietnamese attack on US warships.
In 1967 Israel attacked and destroyed the US intelligence ship Liberty, because Liberty’s crew had picked up proof that Israel had initiated the war with Egypt and intended to attack Syria the next day. Some have speculated that Israelis hoped their attack on the Liberty could be blamed on Egypt and used to draw the US into the war against Egypt.
In 2003 the Moorer Commission [see here [PDF] and here], headed by Admiral Tom Moorer, former Chief of Naval Operations and former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, concluded:
"That in attacking the USS Liberty, Israel committed acts of murder against American servicemen and an act of war against the United States."
"That fearing conflict with Israel, the White House deliberately prevented the U.S. Navy from coming to the defense of USS Liberty."
"…the Captain and surviving crew members were later threatened with court-martial, imprisonment or worse if they exposed the truth; and were abandoned by their own government."
"That due to the influence of Israel’s powerful supporters in the United States, the White House deliberately covered up the facts of this attack from the American people."
"That a danger to our national security exists whenever our elected officials are willing to subordinate American interests to those of any foreign nation, and specifically are unwilling to challenge Israel’s interests when they conflict with American interests."
On the 30th anniversary of Israel’s destruction of the liberty, Admiral Moorer said that Israel attacked the Liberty because Israel knew that the intelligence ship could intercept Israel’s plans to seize the Golan Heights from Syria, an act of Israeli aggression to which the US government was opposed. Admiral Moorer said, "I believe Moshe Dayan concluded that he could prevent Washington from becoming aware of what Israel was up to by destroying the primary source of acquiring that information--the US Liberty.”
Moorer reports that after a 25 minute air attack "that pounded the Liberty with bombs, rockets, napalm and machine gun fire . . . three Israeli torpedo boats closed in for the kill . . . the torpedo boats’ machine guns also were turned on life rafts that were deployed into the Mediterranean as well as those few on deck that had escaped damage."
Admiral Moorer says, "What is so chilling and cold-blooded, of course, is that they [Israel] could kill as many Americans as they did in confidence that Washington would cooperate in quelling any public outcry."
The US invasion of Iraq and the looming US attack on Iran are proof that Israel has even more power over the White House today.
Bush has many ways to widen his war in the Middle East. His brutal aggression against Somalia has largely escaped criticism for the war crime that it is. On January 11 the US National Intelligence Director told Congress that Hezbollah in Lebanon may be the next US threat. Just as he lied to the entire world about Saddam Hussein and Iraq, Bush is lying about Iran. Bush and the neoconservatives are frantic for war with Iran to get underway before the US Congress forces a US withdrawal from the failed adventure in Iraq.
Bush’s entire "war on terror" is based on lies. The Bush Regime, desperate to keep its lies covered up, is now trying to prevent American law firms from defending the Guantanamo detainees. The Bush Regime is fearful that Americans will learn that the detainees are not terrorists but props in the regime’s orchestrated "terror war."
On January 13 the New York Times (editorial) said that "Cully Stimson, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for detainee affairs, tried to rally American corporations to stop doing business with law firms that represent inmates of the Guantanamo internment camp." Stimson alleged that it was "shocking" that American law firms were "representing detainees down there." He suggested that when corporate America got word of if, "those C.E.O.’s are going to make those law firms choose between representing terrorists or representing reputable firms. We want to watch that play out."[Round Up The Usual Lawyers]
The only reason for the Bush Regime’s policy of indefinite detention without charges is that it has no charges to bring. The detainees are not terrorists. They are the Bush Regime’s props in a fake war that serves as cover for the Regime’s hegemonic policy in the Middle East.
The only action that can stop Bush is for both the Democratic and Republican leadership of the House and Senate to call on the White House, tell Bush they know what he is up to and that they will not fall for it a second time. The congressional leadership must tell Bush that if he does not immediately desist, he will be impeached and convicted before the week is out.
Can a congressional leadership that lives in fear of the Israel Lobby perform this task?
All the rest is penny-ante. Revoking the Iraqi War Resolution as Rep. Sam Farr has proposed or requiring Bush to obtain congressional authorization prior to any US attack on Iran simply lets Bush and his Federalist Society apologists for executive dictatorship claim he has commander-in-chief powers and proceed with his planned aggression. Cutting off funding is not itself enough as Bush can raid other budgets. Non-binding resolutions of disapproval are meaningless to a president who doesn’t care what anyone else thinks.
Nothing can stop the criminal Bush from instituting wider war in the Middle East that could become a catastrophic world war except an unequivocal statement from Congress that he will be impeached.
Bush has made the US into a colony of Israel. The US is incurring massive debt and loss of both life and reputation in order to silence Muslim opposition to Israel’s theft of Palestine and the Golan Heights.
That is what the "war on terror" is about.

 

[greatcalgarian]

Sorry, it's a pain in the rear for me to watch video, so I mostly don't.



What was it? Keith Olberman?



What media/political consensus? Go watch Keith Olberman on MSNBC and Sean Hannity on FOX and then come back and tell me there's a media consensus.



What bipartisan fabric? We haven't had that fabric around for quite a while, and the curtains may need redoing as they are quite shredded with age, but good luck with that.



Where have you been the last few years, GC? The top brass are deciding to retire at a rather unusual rate. Some of them even then go on to write books critical of our handling of recent events.

From a military point of view, that's the same as this: :shout:

CLICK HERE TO VIEW VIDEO

[/quote]

The video provides all the answer, it is only 9 minutes

 

[greatcalgarian]

Yeah, they said they shot one down. And who knows -- maybe they even did.

Since you do like videos, I'd suggest this one. It reminds me of some of the sorts of claims I expect to hear from Ahmadinejad. Dunno why.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_4vbz6E0vg

Seen some of this before. What is your point? The last page of the video?

 

[Comprehend]

The drone is seeking out the information on the weak point and where to attack etc. So this is a pre-war plan being executed already. The war may not be far away.

is this the first instance of somebody actually reading the *mind* of a non-sentient object? Wow.

*scribbles in journal*

 

[Comprehend]

I think the liklihood is above average. Like somebody has already pointed out, we do have a second carrier group over there now, and Bush has replaced some leadership with people who are better qualified to run an amphibious landing. Then there is the fact that rather than having our troops in iraq and afghanistan being a liability, it is a plus. Iraq and Iran are on the west and east borders of Iran, with a naval landing in the south we could attack from 3 sides. this would be more than a little difficult to defend against.

personally, I think Iran has always been the real target anyway.

 

[almifkhar]

will for sure happen and i think the result will be major changes in the world as we know it.