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This was posted by Op-Ed News and MSNBC, original article written by Stephanie Pappas of Livescience interviews with some of the scientists behind a new study published in Nature:
Likewise, humans have completely transformed 43 percent of Earth's land surface for cities and agriculture, compared with the 30 percent land surface transition that occurred at the end of the last glacial period. Meanwhile, the human population has exploded, putting ever more pressure on existing resources. [ 7 Billion Population Milestones ]
This is the part that so called "skeptics" have a tin ear for! Before the beginning of the Holocene Epoch 10,000 years ago, the small human populations of the Pleistocene were mobile, had lots of open land to move to in case of conflicts, and they had not transformed half of the planet to suit their own purposes...to the detriment of most other life forms. The only thing missing in that comment is the horrendous impact that our vast spiderweb arrays of paved roads and highways have had to prevent animal migrations. During a more gradual spike in temperatures called the PETM, the effects on ocean life appear to have been more serious than for land animals, even though some paleontologists believe that for at least a few centuries, the climate was so hot that daily average high temperatures in the Tropic Zone were over 140 degrees F. And this is mostly because during that brief time period, it appears that there was a complete eradication of plant and animal life within 30 degrees of the Equator. But during that time, animals faced only natural barriers to migration, and many migration routes would have allowed many animals to leave the Tropics and move north. Now, we have already gone through a century of increasing extinctions because of human populations and their barriers, so isolated pockets of endangered species in the Tropics have very little opportunity to migrate north. Like so many other changes for both humans and other animals, Pleistocene or worse climate variability would be many times more catastrophic than before the Holocene. So the past is no guide for what to expect for the world of the future.
If we are already past tipping points such as carbon release from deep ocean layers and permafrost, bringing down CO2 levels would not be possible without some major, massive geoengineering projects that have not even begun yet. I check in on the CO2Now.org website about once a month to see what the latest bad news is. For the last several years, if you take a look at the monthly atmospheric readings from Mauna Loa Observatory, not only are the CO2 numbers higher than for that month during the previous year, but there has been a clear trend that the rate of change on an annual basis has been accelerating. For example, May's CO2 number is 396.78 ppm. Last May was 394.16, and May 2010 was 392.95...anyone notice a trend here? Even without number crunching, you can see the rate of increase getting bigger each year. By this time next spring, if the world isn't already at that milestone - 400 ppm., it will be pretty damn close! What these numbers mean over time is that even if carbon levels magically plateaued at 400, planet earth would become an ice-free world in a couple of centuries. And future populations would have to deal with all of the issues related to higher ocean levels, starting with a dramatic loss of land area to the oceans. That's why Bill McKibben started 350.org! It's a number based on climate modelling, which could be off a bit, but the best assessment of CO2's effects on global temperatures is that to just maintain what we have now, Co2 levels would have to be brought down to 350. To bring back the glaciers and sea ice that has been lost would require carbon levels to drop below 300...a number that is likely beyond achievability, since it was past over a hundred years ago.
In all likelihood, Co2 levels will reach at least 450, based on oil and coal still in the ground that will likely be exploited. Adding in positive feedback effects of oceans and permafrost giving back sequestered carbon to the atmosphere, and there's no telling what the final number could be.
Earth is rapidly headed toward a catastrophic breakdown if humans don't get their act together, according to an international group of scientists.
Writing Wednesday (June 6) in the journal Nature, the researchers warn that the world is headed toward a tipping point marked by extinctions and unpredictable changes on a scale not seen since the glaciers retreated 12,000 years ago.
"There is a very high possibility that by the end of the century, the Earth is going to be a very different place," study researcher Anthony Barnosky told LiveScience. Barnosky, a professor of integrative biology from the University of California, Berkeley, joined a group of 17 other scientists to warn that this new planet might not be a pleasant place to live.
"You can envision these state changes as a fast period of adjustment where we get pushed through the eye of the needle," Barnosky said. "As we're going through the eye of the needle, that's when we see political strife, economic strife, war and famine." [ Top 10 Ways to Destroy Earth ]
Will we get our act together? And as Anthony Barnosky notes, there is no telling how increasing extreme weather events and climate shifts will impact the way nations and large populations react to necessary changes."There is a very high possibility that by the end of the century, the Earth is going to be a very different place," study researcher Anthony Barnosky told LiveScience. Barnosky, a professor of integrative biology from the University of California, Berkeley, joined a group of 17 other scientists to warn that this new planet might not be a pleasant place to live.
"You can envision these state changes as a fast period of adjustment where we get pushed through the eye of the needle," Barnosky said. "As we're going through the eye of the needle, that's when we see political strife, economic strife, war and famine." [ Top 10 Ways to Destroy Earth ]
Likewise, humans have completely transformed 43 percent of Earth's land surface for cities and agriculture, compared with the 30 percent land surface transition that occurred at the end of the last glacial period. Meanwhile, the human population has exploded, putting ever more pressure on existing resources. [ 7 Billion Population Milestones ]
This is the part that so called "skeptics" have a tin ear for! Before the beginning of the Holocene Epoch 10,000 years ago, the small human populations of the Pleistocene were mobile, had lots of open land to move to in case of conflicts, and they had not transformed half of the planet to suit their own purposes...to the detriment of most other life forms. The only thing missing in that comment is the horrendous impact that our vast spiderweb arrays of paved roads and highways have had to prevent animal migrations. During a more gradual spike in temperatures called the PETM, the effects on ocean life appear to have been more serious than for land animals, even though some paleontologists believe that for at least a few centuries, the climate was so hot that daily average high temperatures in the Tropic Zone were over 140 degrees F. And this is mostly because during that brief time period, it appears that there was a complete eradication of plant and animal life within 30 degrees of the Equator. But during that time, animals faced only natural barriers to migration, and many migration routes would have allowed many animals to leave the Tropics and move north. Now, we have already gone through a century of increasing extinctions because of human populations and their barriers, so isolated pockets of endangered species in the Tropics have very little opportunity to migrate north. Like so many other changes for both humans and other animals, Pleistocene or worse climate variability would be many times more catastrophic than before the Holocene. So the past is no guide for what to expect for the world of the future.
Pulling back from the ledge will require international cooperation, Barnosky said. Under business-as-usual conditions, humankind will be using 50 percent of the land surface on the planet by 2025.
So, will we pull back from the ledge? So far, even in the face of a melting Arctic that is already being readied for exploitation by shipping and mining companies, there is no sign of any serious attempts to take control of rising greenhouse gas emissions, increasing exploitation of land, water and other resources, or rising populations.
If we are already past tipping points such as carbon release from deep ocean layers and permafrost, bringing down CO2 levels would not be possible without some major, massive geoengineering projects that have not even begun yet. I check in on the CO2Now.org website about once a month to see what the latest bad news is. For the last several years, if you take a look at the monthly atmospheric readings from Mauna Loa Observatory, not only are the CO2 numbers higher than for that month during the previous year, but there has been a clear trend that the rate of change on an annual basis has been accelerating. For example, May's CO2 number is 396.78 ppm. Last May was 394.16, and May 2010 was 392.95...anyone notice a trend here? Even without number crunching, you can see the rate of increase getting bigger each year. By this time next spring, if the world isn't already at that milestone - 400 ppm., it will be pretty damn close! What these numbers mean over time is that even if carbon levels magically plateaued at 400, planet earth would become an ice-free world in a couple of centuries. And future populations would have to deal with all of the issues related to higher ocean levels, starting with a dramatic loss of land area to the oceans. That's why Bill McKibben started 350.org! It's a number based on climate modelling, which could be off a bit, but the best assessment of CO2's effects on global temperatures is that to just maintain what we have now, Co2 levels would have to be brought down to 350. To bring back the glaciers and sea ice that has been lost would require carbon levels to drop below 300...a number that is likely beyond achievability, since it was past over a hundred years ago.
In all likelihood, Co2 levels will reach at least 450, based on oil and coal still in the ground that will likely be exploited. Adding in positive feedback effects of oceans and permafrost giving back sequestered carbon to the atmosphere, and there's no telling what the final number could be.
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