Heyo
Veteran Member
That's what the bookies take into account. It's not only the chance of something to happen but also the likeliness of people to bet on it to happen.
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Poll- Is Trump likely to be reelected?
- Thread starter Jonathan Bailey
- Start date
Salvador
RF's Swedenborgian
silvermoon383
Well-Known Member
(Emphasis mine)
If the numbers about the 2016 election on Wikipedia are accurate:
55.7% of eligible voters actually voted. Of those votes, Candidate Trump received 46.1%. Putting those percentages together (0.557*0.461) shows is that only 25.7% of the country voted for him. Far, far less than the half you state.
It really bothers me whenever Republicans state that Trump’s election was the will of the people. It clearly was not, Candidate Clinton had received approx. 3 million more votes than Trump (48.2% of all cast). He only became president by exploiting an archaic system that was designed to cut the common people out of the electoral process, for whatever reason.
I can only wonder what would’ve happened if turnout was 100%, but that’ll never happen, especially with all the blocks Republican legislatures at the state level are putting on voting.
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Shad
Veteran Member
The system was about states voting not a national vote. Civics 101 and based US history...
that was in the 1700s, we should have advanced a bit since then!!
Shad
Veteran Member
Changing a federation and republic into a democracy is not an advancement. It is exactly what the FF were against. Tyranny of the majority.
ecco
Veteran Member
Now we have tyranny of the majority of the representatives.
Subduction Zone
Veteran Member
Going with a popular vote for President would not make us a democracy.
SoyLeche
meh...
How do you figure?
The senate is more of a problem than the house - but that’s a “tyrant of the minority” thing.
In the news....
Is Hillary Clinton angling to become vice president?
Is Hillary Clinton angling to become vice president?
The U.S. is a Republic. Trump won the majority in a majority of the States, that is he won the Electoral College. The Electoral College system is a great system. If you don’t like it, go ahead and see if you can amend the Constitution.
Subduction Zone
Veteran Member
One can change it without amending the Constitution. You only like it because of the invalid win that it gave Trump. If it gave the win to Hillary you would be crying in your beer.
SoyLeche
meh...
I'm not sure how you would pull off changing it without an ammendment.
And I'd be surprised if any Republican were to win the popular vote in the next several elections. The demographics of the population are against them.
Subduction Zone
Veteran Member
It can be done and there has been significant progress. First off one must realize that states can decide how they award their own electoral votes. That is in the constitution.
Subduction Zone
Veteran Member
Right now there is a National Popular Vote Interstate Compact in the works. It has passed in several states and is pending in enough to make it the effective law of the land.
States that have signed it agree that once enough states sign it so that their cumulative electoral votes are over 50% that all of them will give their electoral votes to the popular vote winner.
National Popular Vote Interstate Compact - Wikipedia
States that have signed it agree that once enough states sign it so that their cumulative electoral votes are over 50% that all of them will give their electoral votes to the popular vote winner.
National Popular Vote Interstate Compact - Wikipedia
Subduction Zone
Veteran Member
I doubt if it will happen but it would be interesting to see it passed before the next election. How fast would it go through the court system?
Mr Spinkles
Mr
Regarding the question in the thread title: yes, unfortunately, I think there is a good chance he will be re-elected.
Polls seem to show the Democratic candidates have an edge against Trump of a few points. That is not much larger than the margin of error. Unemployment is very low. His base will support him almost no matter what; there is no slip of the tongue, no gaffe or mistake he can commit, that will cost him. The downside exists only for Democrats.
He also has an enormous advantage in any debate or campaigning. And that is, he doesn’t even need to come close to the truth. All he needs to do is throw punches - the lower, the better - and some of them will land. His opponents will be held to a higher standard than he is and will pay a price if they lower themselves to his level; and also pay a price if they don’t.
Subduction Zone
Veteran Member
Hopefully whoever debates Trump has a staff that studies his lies and how he lies. From watching people that rely on lies when they debate if one get them them off script they tend to fall apart. Trump may be a good liar, but he is far from clever. Make his lies clear and he will be disarmed.