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Featured Zero probability for Evolution

Discussion in 'Evolution Vs. Creationism' started by questfortruth, Jun 7, 2021.

  1. questfortruth

    questfortruth Well-Known Member

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    PREFACE, DIALOGS:

    Reviewer insults my scientific talents:
    "I can't make heads or tails of this word salad, tbh."

    To whom I reply:

    It is not different from any good scientific paper. I bet, you would say "word salat" to any of Dr. Hawking's papers. Provided, if he is not PhD and not peer-reviewed.
    I am not hurt by this injustice because I am a loser. Look: if during 10 last years you have faced injustice, then the probability that during the next month you'll face recognition is simply
    one month divided by the number of months in 10 years, which is one percent.
    Look: the failures in life are making us a loser. And success-es are making from us a Lucky, charismatic person.

    Reviewer: "you have here the intelligent-seeming math (which has been noted by others who evidently can do math, that it also "fails")."

    To whom I reply by axiom: "Some people (not all) lie constantly, other people lie only once a month. All we lie."

    DEFINITION:
    The sense of Theory of Probability is in this: if the probability of an event p is 50 %, then we compare it to the following STANDARD event: one time tossed a coin onto the air falls "head". If the probability of an event is 1/100 then 7 times in the row tossed coin falls "head". We hate it if we need to toss the coin 30 times and constantly get "head". Thus, such an event, assumably, has not happened. Hereby it is forbidden by the theory to repeat the attempts. You need to get 30 heads by one single attempt. You can not repeat the 30 tosses day after day. You have only one time. Try it.

    The probability, that I exist seems to be near zero because the right sperm-microbe of my father's sperm sample was very lucky to get into the right egg of my mother. However, Science has not proven yet, that soul or consciousness exists at all. Therefore, it is not an objection to my paper.
    But even if there is soul, I would reply: God did it, God has bitten the odds.

    PAPER:
    The assumption that life has begun accidentally is presented as a scientific fact
    by Science, not as an assumption: "the process of Evolution is scientific fact."
    Evolution is defined as the accidental process, in
    particular, man came from a common ancestor with monkeys by accident.
    The modern textbook definition of Evolution says, that Evolution is not directed process.
    Thus, accidental.
    Therefore, Science is factually against God.
    Science does defy the "pseudo-science" creationism, more specifically Young Earth Creationism.
    But the YEC is a religion. Thus, at least one religion gets in the way of Science.

    Let us consider a group of 10 lifeless similar planets. The probability that
    at least on one planet in this group life will begin is P. Let us consider the
    lifeless planet Earth, one of the planets in this group. The probability that
    life will begin on Earth is p = P/10. Generally, if there are N planets, then
    p is about p=P/N (for small p). Indeed, the probability, that life will emerge
    on planet A is a, and on planet B the b. Thus, the probability,
    that life will emerge in this system of planets is sum a+b. Assuming, that
    life will occur only on one planet of these two.

    Let the p be the upper limit of probability, it is the probability of life
    emergence on a planet best suited for life.
    Yes, it is very hard to calculate the p. But one can get some information about it. Namely, assuming, that p is small, the p is less than 100/N, where N is the number of planets suitable for life in the entire Universe and Multiverse.
    The exact probability of Abiogenesis is unknown in Neo-Darwinism. The lowest limit
    is 0, and the upper limit is 1/(250!), where 250 is the number of proteins, the
    (!) is factorial of 250. Therefore, mine p=100/N belongs to 0<100/N<1/(250!).
    The formula 100/N comes from the assumption, that probability of life to emerge on Earth was very small. That might not hold for primitive life, like apes, trees, cats. But for technically advanced life this assumption perfectly holds: the SETI has not detected signals of such life.

    Life has begun. Therefore, the above statement with probability P was realized
    and the second statement with probability p was realized as well. But even if
    P is 50%, the second statement is practically impossible if the probability p
    is near zero. This means that Jordano Bruno's idea of infinite many planets
    suitable for life does not help life to emerge on our planet.

    Secondly, the fine-tuning argument/proof for God was debunked by the
    Multiverse idea: each universe in the infinite Multiverse is equipped with
    slightly different fundamental constants of physics. But due to the present
    note, the idea of many universes does not help our universe to have the right
    physical constants.

    Moreover, it certainly harms the idea of life on Earth to have an entire
    lifeless universe-s out there. Because then N=infinity, and so p=0, as p<100%/N.

    The original is published in ResearchGate:
    (PDF) Zero Evolution probability

    DISCUSSION:

    Formally speaking:
    Situation prior to life emergence in our Universe:
    1. There is 50 % probability, that the Universe gets alive.
    2. There is zero probability, that Earth gets alive.

    Situation after the life emergence in our Universe:
    1. There is 100 % probability, that the Universe got alive.
    2. There is 100 % probability, that Earth got alive.

    But because the event with zero % probability never happens, the Creationists are right: we need God to jump from zero to 100 %.

    Analogously the Multiverse and fine-tuning:
    There was zero probability, that our Universe will get the right physical constants for life. But then this probability became 100. It is a miracle!

    It is really hard to save people these "last days". OK. The probability of simple lifeforms is some p=10 %. However, the probability of technically advanced life is near zero: we didn't get signals from space. So, in my paper, I will write this: "due to paper
    https://www.quantamagazine.org/a-new-thermodynamics-theory-of-the-origin-of-life-20140122/
    the p can not be considered the probability of simple life, but rather of the technically advanced one."
    God is hiding because He does not want to be scientifically proven. He wants to be loved, not proven!


    What method God used to create human beings?
    Wonder. Simply - wonder. Because the God is Spirit. For example, the Spirit of Knowledge. God knows even the answer to Riemann Hypothesis, even if God has no proof of it. Because His name is Knowledge. Same way, His name is Creativity. Therefore, He can create man even from nothing.

    The difference between Creationism and Neo-Darwinism is the number of kinds.
    It is well explained here:
    Comprehension of Evolution and Creation
     
    #1 questfortruth, Jun 7, 2021
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2021
  2. Subduction Zone

    Subduction Zone Veteran Member

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    Sorry, no one assumes that life began accidentally. This may be record. You refuted yourself b making a false claim before the end of your first sentence.
     
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  3. Revoltingest

    Revoltingest Abnormal before it was fashionable
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    The problem is always in the premises.
    But in this case, the math fails too.
     
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  4. Jayhawker Soule

    Jayhawker Soule <yawn> ignore </yawn>
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    Rather, there is zero probability that you would get it right. Instead, you managed two dumb mistakes in your first sentence. Well done ... NOT.
     
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  5. Mestemia

    Mestemia Advocatus Diaboli
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    ... is only claimed by theists trying in vain to "disprove" evolution.

    Which is to say creationists whose faith is to weak to handle the truths of the real world.
     
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  6. Evangelicalhumanist

    Evangelicalhumanist "Truth" isn't a thing...
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    Yawn....zzzzz
     
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  7. Jainarayan

    Jainarayan In Hell I’ll Be In Good Company
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    Whom are you trying to convince, others or yourself with these many failed attempts?

    And btw, evolution =/= abiogenesis. They are two completely different ideas and mechanisms.
     
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  8. Windwalker

    Windwalker Veteran Member
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    First, the beginning of life, has nothing to do with the Theory of Evolution. You should know this by now.

    The process of evolution is a scientific fact, is absolutely correct. We can observe it happening. Just look at the patterns that wind creates in the sand. That's a process that changes the landscape over time. That is evolution.

    All the rest of what you scraped from an apologist's website has to do with Abiogenesis. That has nothing to do with the theory of evolution.

    BTW, plenty of people believe in God, and also accept the fact of evolution. I do. Why is this so hard for you? You think your ideas about God, trumps science? How about changing your ideas about God? Isn't that easier than denying the entire world of science to protect an idea you don't know what to do with?
     
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  9. Revoltingest

    Revoltingest Abnormal before it was fashionable
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    An approach the probability of abiogenesis....
    - How many possible chemical pathways leading to
    abiogenesis are there?
    - How many of them exist on the various kinds of
    planets?
    - How many planets have at least one of these
    pathways?
    - How many potential chemical reactions that
    possibly lead to abiogenesis have occurred?
    This one depends upon the number, kind, &
    duration of planets & the chemical pathways.

    None of those questions are answerable.
    Thus it is utterly ridiculously impossible to
    calculate any probability that life would arise
    by abiogenesis.
     
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  10. Altfish

    Altfish Veteran Member

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    Evolution says nothing about how life began; that is abiogenesis.
    Not good that your post has a falsehood in the first sentence. After that I can't be bothered reading the rest
     
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  11. questfortruth

    questfortruth Well-Known Member

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    Please read a textbook on Neo-Darwinism. Evolution is defined as the accidental process, in
    particular, the man came from a common ancestor with monkeys by accident.
     
  12. HonestJoe

    HonestJoe Well-Known Member

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    Science doesn't do anything, it is an abstract concept.
    None of the scientific hypotheses for the origin of life (on Earth) are presented as fact. Evidence is presented supporting some aspects and steps in the process as possible or likely.
    None of this has anything to do with evolution, which is about changes in existing life, not it's origins.
    None of this is "against God" given that regardless of the proposed scientific process, it would remain theoretically possible for that to be somehow initiated by a god.

    Science can't be "factually against God" because God (capital G, as commonly claimed) is specifically defined to be "outside science". If you want to discuss science, it can't have anything to do with God at all, positive or negative.

    The probability that at least one planet in a given group develops life will increase with the number of planets in the group though. If you had 20 planets, the chance of at least one developing life will be twice that for 10 planets. The extremely low odds of life developing on any given planet is counter-balanced by the extremely large number of planets in the universe.
     
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  13. Windwalker

    Windwalker Veteran Member
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    Why does the theory of evolution threaten your faith? At what point did you decide it should?
     
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  14. Altfish

    Altfish Veteran Member

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    Please read my statement again.
    No credible book on Evolution talks about 'accidental' - evolution is NOT accidental.
     
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  15. Jayhawker Soule

    Jayhawker Soule <yawn> ignore </yawn>
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    Please cite any peer-reviewed scientific textbook on Evolution referring to the origins of life.
     
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  16. lewisnotmiller

    lewisnotmiller Grand Hat
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    I get you are desperate to 'prove' evolution wrong, but you should at least get your maths right.
    If P is the probability that at least one planet of a group of ten will have life commence, then it doesn't follow that for one of the planets (Earth in your example), the chance is P/10.
     
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  17. metis

    metis aged ecumenical anthropologist

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    Simply put, the above in not true as we cannot and do not assume anything that is beyond our abilities to acquire evidence one way or the other. It's like asking "Are we in a multiverse?", which is impossible for us to substantiate nor deny.
     
  18. viole

    viole Ontological Naturalist
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    This is equivalent of saying that while there are zillions of planets, it was sheer luck for life to start on earth.
    Don't you see the fallacy of this?

    Ciao

    - viole
     
  19. ChristineM

    ChristineM "Be strong" I whispered to my coffee.
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    And again


    73861d411c48af79db6e1416dec2c38b.gif
     
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  20. SalixIncendium

    SalixIncendium Sɐlᴉxᴉuɔǝupᴉnɯ
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    ResearchGate? What happened to arXiv and viXra?
     
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