an anarchist
Your local anarchist.
Has it started? Does anyone foresee this Ukraine crisis deescalating? I am of the opinion that we are in the opening phases of World War Three. Similar to this maybe Phoney War - Wikipedia
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World War Three
- Thread starter an anarchist
- Start date
Twilight Hue
Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
No. It's not WW3.
I voted yes on the basis of WW3 not being like the two earlier wars. Instead it's being fought politically, financially, in the media, in Ukraine and by hackers such as the latest claim that Anonymous hacked the Russian Central Bank and by Russians hacking Ukraine's institutions.
In this I'm following Clausewitz who said that war was a contest of wills. In this case, much of the world is involved in one way or the other. And I'm thinking of what Sun Tzu said “Perfection in war lies in so sapping your opponents will that he surrenders without fighting.”
In this I'm following Clausewitz who said that war was a contest of wills. In this case, much of the world is involved in one way or the other. And I'm thinking of what Sun Tzu said “Perfection in war lies in so sapping your opponents will that he surrenders without fighting.”
I voted no, meaning not yet, but it could step over the edge at any time.
Spirit of Light
Be who ever you want
No i do not believe we are, but if Putin do something outside of Ukraine now, then yes
exchemist
Veteran Member
I think such reasoning is rather dangerous. A war is when people are being killed. It seems to me important not to blur distinctions, not least because that can be used to justify escalations. The extent of this war is confined to Ukraine so far and everyone in NATO is trying very hard to keep it that way. Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia was not part of WW2, according to most definitions.
Sanctions are not regarded as acts of war.
I voted no more out of hope rather than any sort of really knowing what the f*ck is going on, especially in Putin's melon. What is happening in Russia seems to me to be more like the Spanish Civil War and the Korean War. Those were global proxy wars and the nations were content to let the conflict be limited there. It all depends on Putin, and I've been wrong about him so far. So I think it's safe to expect the worst, and there is hope for the best. At this point I think it's likely that Putin will use chemical weapons, at least as a step towards using nuclear weapons. I can see Putin firing one nuclear missile on Kyiv, and then wait to see what NATO does. Right now we world citizens are just spectators. It is a lesson to world voters to never trust authoritarian leaders, EVER!!
Kooky
Freedom from Sanity
Nyet.
Bill Starr
Member
Looks like its going like the Bosnian Serb war - The UN will wait until it too late and then attempt to put in a no fly zone when its almost over and all the damage is done. Or just like Rwanda do nothing and watch as everyone gets slaughtered - they have a horrible track record and watched and thousands were killed. The Serbs had concentration camp with people starving to death and they stood and watched.
exchemist
Veteran Member
I can't see Putin nuking Kyiv. Kyiv is the historic prize in Putin's mind, the great city and centre of the civilisation of Kievan Rus' that he wants to claim as the ancestor of modern Russia. If he reduces it to a radioactive glass, he will have destroyed the very thing he wanted to possess.
I fear something rather different, namely a forced removal of most of the Ukrainian people, as Stalin did the Tatars, and their replacement by Russians. But I don't think Putin can do it. He would need a puppet government and a huge secret police establishment, backed by informers everywhere, to cow the population, as per the E German Stasi. He seems to have no chance of achieving that.
I'm influenced by the broader use of the word 'war' in this song which I listened to earlier today with the line "everywhere is war"
I have considered that. But think of it as a woman that has a jealous ex-husband he can't have anymore, and ends up killing her because if he can't have her no one can. Look at Dorothy Stratten's murder as an example. I see Putin in the same irrational person as her ex. Putin thinks Ukraine belongs to Russia. Zelenzkyy is not the legal president, so what stops Putin from acting to more extreme steps?
The only step here would be to eliminate the existing government and the easiest way now is to gas or use a nuclear weapon. As long as Zelenzkyy lives with a core government Ukraine will exist.
We really can't know how desperate and irrational Putin is. I have been wrong so far so I've stopped making predictions. I suspect Putin is going all in. He has little left to lose.
Right. Putin will want a dying Ukraine, but will he want it's corpse?
exchemist
Veteran Member
Nobody thinks the UN can do anything here. In fact nobody, so far as I know, has even mentioned the UN as an actor. Russia and China are both permanent members of the Security Council, after all.
The chief actors here are NATO, militarily, and the EU and the US, economically.
an anarchist
Your local anarchist.
Honestly I just have a hunch that the Ukrainian conflict is just going to escalate and draw more countries into conventional warfare. Perhaps not, which seems to be the majority opinion.
We Never Know
No Slack
There's this....posted around 2 hours ago.
"RUSSIA has threatened to spark World War Three by nuking the West if NATO peacekeepers step just ONE FOOT into war ravaged Ukraine."
exchemist
Veteran Member
It could certainly lead to WW3. We are worried that could happen. But at present the belligerents are Ukraine and Russia - two countries. So it is not, yet, a world war.
I am in fact somewhat less worried about it developing into a world war than I was, since what this campaign has revealed is the serious limitations of the Russian army. Putin and his generals may think twice before opening another front, when they are incapable of achieving their military objectives in the campaign they have under way at the moment.
Unless of course, Putin tries to get out of the stalemate by using weapons of mass destruction. I can't see how these would help him, but he may make the mistake of thinking that they might.
exchemist
Veteran Member
This seems to be garbled. (It is the Sun, after all.)
Reuters reports it here: Russia says sending international peacekeepers to Ukraine would be 'very reckless'
Seems Poland floated the idea of a "peacekeeping mission" and suggested - very naïvely, in my view - that it could be composed of NATO troops, or those of other international bodies. And Russia responded by saying the presence of any NATO troops in Ukraine would have very dangerous consequences. (Obviously, surely? The idea of using NATO troops must be out of the question.)
No mention of nukes, so far as I can see.