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World out of oil in 38 years

Does this concern you?

  • Yes

    Votes: 3 23.1%
  • No

    Votes: 9 69.2%
  • I could care less

    Votes: 2 15.4%

  • Total voters
    13
  • Poll closed .

Milton Platt

Well-Known Member
I did the research; Now you help me get the word out (BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE!!!)

The World’s Largest Oil Reserves By Country

Proven oil reserves are those that have a reasonable certainty of being recoverable under existing economic and political conditions, with existing technology.

10. United States - 39,230 million barrels
9. Libya - 48,363 million barrels
8. Russia - 80,000 million barrels
7. United Arab Emirates - 97,800 million barrels
6. Kuwait - 101,500 million barrels
5. Iraq - 142,503 million barrels
4. Iran - 158,400 million barrels
3. Canada - 169,709 million barrels
2. Saudi Arabia - 266,455 million barrels
1. Venezuela - 300,878 million barrels
The World’s Largest Oil Reserves By Country

the above adds up to---- 1,304,838 million barrels

The total worldwide oil consumption was 93 million barrels per day (bbl/day) on average in 2015 according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
List of countries by oil consumption - Wikipedia

93 million a day X 356 days = 33,945 a year

1304838/33945 = 38 years left then ALL gone!!!
Help us create a world for our children NOW!!!

:)-

While I don't disagree with your concern about this or any other finite resource (all resources are finite), your figures presented here are the presently proven oil reserves, not the potential actual reserves. It is also impossible to forecast what factors may come into play in the future which may dramatically reduce the use of fossil fuels in general. It would be fair to say that it always comes down to economics. When the price of oil based products rise enough, and/or the price of alternative energy sources become cheap enough, that is where the money will go. For all the posturing from both sides of the argument, that is how it always works.
 

Valjean

Veteran Member
Premium Member
But in the mean time...
Oil companies are going to make the most of the infrastructure and organization they already have in place. They'll continue polluting till the last.
 

sooda

Veteran Member
Oil just becomes more and more difficult and destructive to procure, but the oil companies want to wring everything they can out of the existing infrastructure.
Alternatives will tip over the whole apple cart. They know this, which is why they're so desperately scrambling.

It depends how they are set up.. The US would have a hard time, but this was planned in KSA 30 years ago. The Saudis can use excess production in downstream manufacturing. Its seamless. Most integrated oil company in the world.
 

james dixon

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
While I don't disagree with your concern about this or any other finite resource (all resources are finite), your figures presented here are the presently proven oil reserves, not the potential actual reserves.

More oil wells are drying up than new ones being found.
OIL WELLS DECLINE.jpg


oil decline.png
 

james dixon

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
Electric vehicles also benefit from specific advantages, such as free recharging at the 574 charging points in public car parks, and at the fast and semi-fast charging points on public roads: at the lower end of Rue Grimaldi, on Place des Moulins and at 24 Avenue de Fontvieille (in front of the Single Buoy Mooring building). They also have their own special identification, "VE" (for véhicule électrique - electric vehicle), which offers free on-street parking in Monaco and a free annual sticker.
Subsidy scheme for electric and hybrid vehicles / Soft mobility / The Environment / Policy & Practice / Portail du Gouvernement - Monaco
 

Wandering Monk

Well-Known Member
Yep. We have to run out at some point. It will be interesting to see at what point fossil and renewable energy costs cross and renewable becomes the preferred energy source. Unless renewables continue to fall in price as they have, nuclear may become attractive again.

They knew how to make reactors that COULDN'T melt down long ago. And breeder reactors use nuclear waste for fuel and have much less and safer waste themselves. This Nova program really give me hope for nuclear power. Even the Greens are coming around on this option.

 

Milton Platt

Well-Known Member
They knew how to make reactors that COULDN'T melt down long ago. And breeder reactors use nuclear waste for fuel and have much less and safer waste themselves. This Nova program really give me hope for nuclear power. Even the Greens are coming around on this option.

Yes, I think I've seen the program you referenced awhile back. Something about using a coolant other than water???
 

Valjean

Veteran Member
Premium Member
Thirty-eight years? Hogwash! The earth is going to end in 12.
iu
But isn't one of these assertions evidence-based? Doesn't one of these reflect the assessment of scientific researchers?

We have a long history of "commonsense" ridicule of now accepted social policies, scientific understanding and predictions.
 

james dixon

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
China Is Set To Become The World's Renewable Energy Superpower, According To New Report

Jan 11, 2019, 07:21am

The continuing growth in renewable energy around the world is set to boost the power of China while undermining the influence of major oil exporters such as Russia and Middle East states like Saudi Arabia, according to a new report on the geopolitical implications of the changing energy landscape.

“No country has put itself in a better position to become the world’s renewable energy superpower than China,” says the report, which was issued by the Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transformation – a group chaired by a former president of Iceland, Olafur Grimsson.

The commission was set up by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) last year and its findings were published on January 11 in Abu Dhabi, at IRENA’s annual assembly.

Olafur Grimsson, former president of Iceland and chairman of the Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transformation, speaking at the launch of the group’s report on January 11 in Abu Dhabi, UAE (photo: IRENA)

Olafur Grimsson, former president of Iceland and chairman of the Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transformation, speaking at the launch of the group’s report on January 11 in Abu Dhabi, UAE (photo: IRENA) IRENA

The report argues that the geopolitical and socio-economic consequences of the rapid growth of renewable energy could be as profound as those which accompanied the shift from biomass to fossil fuels two centuries ago. The changes are likely to include the emergence of new energy leaders around the world, changing patterns of trade and the development of new alliances. It could also spark instability in some countries which have grown dependent on oil and gas revenues.

The report points out that China has taken a lead in renewable energy and is now the world’s largest producer, exporter and installer of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles.

China also has a clear lead in terms of the underlying technology, with well over 150,000 renewable energy patents as of 2016, 29% of the global total. The next closest country is the U.S., which had a little over 100,000 patents, with Japan and the E.U. having closer to 75,000 patents each.

“The renewables revolution enhances the global leadership of China, reduces the influence of fossil fuel exporters and brings energy independence to countries around the world,” said Grimsson, speaking at the launch of the report. “The transformation of energy brings big power shifts.”

Beyond China, there are a few other groups of countries which stand to gain from the trends now under way. They include countries with high potential for renewable energy generation, such as Australia and Chile, which could become significant exporters of renewable electricity. Mineral-rich countries such as Bolivia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mongolia could also tap into rising global demand for their raw materials.

Many of these governments are well aware of the risks they face and have been making significant investments into renewable energy in recent years. For example, the UAE has developed vast solar energy parks and Saudi Arabia recently unveiled plans to develop 59GW of renewable energy by 2030.

Stressing a more optimistic view, Adnan Amin, director general of IRENA, said at the launch of the report that “The global energy transformation driven by renewables can reduce energy-related geopolitical tensions as we know them and will foster greater cooperation between states. This transformation can also mitigate social, economic and environmental challenges that are often among the root causes of geopolitical instability and conflict.”

China Is Set To Become The World's Renewable Energy Superpower, According To New Report
:)-
 

james dixon

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
France Will Save Billions By Investing in Renewables Instead of Nukes

December 12, 2018
France will save 39 billion euros ($44.5 billion) if it refrains from building 15 new nuclear plants by 2060, and bets instead on renewable energy sources to replace its all its aging atomic facilities, a government agency said.

France should spend 1.28 trillion euros over the next four decades, mostly on clean power production and storage capacities, networks, and imports, according to a report from the country’s environment ministry. If it does this, France would progressively shut down its 58 atomic plants and renewable energy would comprise 95 percent of its electricity output by 2060, up from 17 percent last year.

The development of the so-called EPR nuclear reactors “wouldn’t be competitive for the French power system from an economical standpoint,” the Agence de l’Environnement et de la Maitrise de l’Energie --or Ademe-- said in a statement. The report assumes that the reactors would produce electricity at a cost of 70 euros per megawatt-hour, while the cost of wind and solar power would fall much lower.

The report follows President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement that state-controlled Electricite de France SA will have to shut as many as 14 of its 58 nuclear reactors by 2035 to allow renewable energy to expand the country’s power mix. Macron also gave EDF until mid-2021 to prove that it can build an economically-viable reactor before the country decides to build new atomic plants. EDF’s EPR project in Normandy is more than six years late coming online, and the cost has more than tripled from its original budget.

Falling costs means that photovoltaic facilities won’t need subsidies from 2030, nor will onshore wind from 2035, the report said. That’s assuming that EDF halts 30 percent of its reactors after 40 years of operation and an additional 30 percent when they turn 50. Otherwise, surplus production capacity would undermine the economics of both nuclear power and renewables, Ademe said.

The study doesn’t take into account the impact on jobs, industry and the environment. However, “we’re expecting job creations in renewables and energy efficiency to largely make up for job losses in the nuclear industry,” said Ademe Chairman Arnaud Leroy.
https://tinyurl.com/yxs53khg
:)-
 

Milton Platt

Well-Known Member
I did the research; Now you help me get the word out (BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE!!!)

The World’s Largest Oil Reserves By Country

Proven oil reserves are those that have a reasonable certainty of being recoverable under existing economic and political conditions, with existing technology.

10. United States - 39,230 million barrels
9. Libya - 48,363 million barrels
8. Russia - 80,000 million barrels
7. United Arab Emirates - 97,800 million barrels
6. Kuwait - 101,500 million barrels
5. Iraq - 142,503 million barrels
4. Iran - 158,400 million barrels
3. Canada - 169,709 million barrels
2. Saudi Arabia - 266,455 million barrels
1. Venezuela - 300,878 million barrels
The World’s Largest Oil Reserves By Country

the above adds up to---- 1,304,838 million barrels

The total worldwide oil consumption was 93 million barrels per day (bbl/day) on average in 2015 according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
List of countries by oil consumption - Wikipedia

93 million a day X 356 days = 33,945 a year

1304838/33945 = 38 years left then ALL gone!!!
Help us create a world for our children NOW!!!

:)-

Estimates vary wildly. It all depends upon who you ask and who's figures and forecasts you use.
In any case, as the oil supply becomes tighter and it becomes more costly due to extraction costs and scarcity, alternate forms of energy will become more economical relative to the cost of oil derived fuels. It will always be about the money.
 

Milton Platt

Well-Known Member
Oil just becomes more and more difficult and destructive to procure, but the oil companies want to wring everything they can out of the existing infrastructure.
Alternatives will tip over the whole apple cart. They know this, which is why they're so desperately scrambling.

In fact, the major oil companies are spending billions on alternative energy development and deployment. They of all people know that there will be an end to oil someday and they have the funds to make sure they are still major players.
 

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
We can make synthetic oil. I use it in my car. Its made under high pressure and temperature. We'll have no problem with lubrication. We may run out of gasoline though. In that case they'll start making engines to run on ethanol/hydrogen/propane. Another possibility is that cars will run on electricity, or we'll get electric trains going. Something will have to take the place of autos. Planes? Well I guess the planes will have to run shorter range or be replaced with dirigibles and rockets.

We may have trouble with rubber, since rubber trees are clones and are all sensitive to the same blight. We may run out of cheap copper. Even now its getting expensive.

Also the climate is changing, and the ocean plankton are not thriving. Oxygen levels are actually decreasing in the air. If that continues and speeds up we won't make it to 38.
Actually all that makes me wonder what happened with switchgrass. ?
 

Milton Platt

Well-Known Member
We can make synthetic oil. I use it in my car. Its made under high pressure and temperature. We'll have no problem with lubrication. We may run out of gasoline though. In that case they'll start making engines to run on ethanol/hydrogen/propane. Another possibility is that cars will run on electricity, or we'll get electric trains going. Something will have to take the place of autos. Planes? Well I guess the planes will have to run shorter range or be replaced with dirigibles and rockets.

We may have trouble with rubber, since rubber trees are clones and are all sensitive to the same blight. We may run out of cheap copper. Even now its getting expensive.

Also the climate is changing, and the ocean plankton are not thriving. Oxygen levels are actually decreasing in the air. If that continues and speeds up we won't make it to 38.

The big secret is that synthetic oils are overwhelmingly based upon the same crude oil regular oil is made from.
 

sooda

Veteran Member
I did the research; Now you help me get the word out (BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE!!!)

The World’s Largest Oil Reserves By Country

Proven oil reserves are those that have a reasonable certainty of being recoverable under existing economic and political conditions, with existing technology.

10. United States - 39,230 million barrels
9. Libya - 48,363 million barrels
8. Russia - 80,000 million barrels
7. United Arab Emirates - 97,800 million barrels
6. Kuwait - 101,500 million barrels
5. Iraq - 142,503 million barrels
4. Iran - 158,400 million barrels
3. Canada - 169,709 million barrels
2. Saudi Arabia - 266,455 million barrels
1. Venezuela - 300,878 million barrels
The World’s Largest Oil Reserves By Country

the above adds up to---- 1,304,838 million barrels

The total worldwide oil consumption was 93 million barrels per day (bbl/day) on average in 2015 according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
List of countries by oil consumption - Wikipedia

93 million a day X 356 days = 33,945 a year

1304838/33945 = 38 years left then ALL gone!!!
Help us create a world for our children NOW!!!

:)-

LOLOL.. The place to start here is to learn the meaning of reserve.
 

james dixon

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
LOLOL.. The place to start here is to learn the meaning of reserve.
What is not mentioning is the decline in current oil fields. As new oil fields are found old one dry up. Now put that into your predictions

Oil field production decline
Individual oil wells are typically within multi-well oil fields. As with individual wells, the production curves for oil fields vary depending on geology and how they are developed and produced. Some fields have symmetric bell-shaped production profiles, but it is more common that the period of inclining production is briefer and steeper than the subsequent decline. More than half the production usually occurs after a field has reached a peak or plateau. Production profiles of many fields show distinct peaks, but for giant oil fields, it is more common for production to reach and maintain a plateau before declining. Once a field declines, it usually follows an exponential decline.

Oil depletion - Wikipedia

A 2013 study concluded that peak oil "appears probable before 2030", and that there was a "significant risk" that it would occur before 2020
Peak oil - Wikipedia

When the price of gasoline rises, people naturally buy less of it; the amount of this reduction being determined by the amount of the price increase and the consumer's elasticity of demand for gasoline. This does not necessarily mean that people will drive less (though it is likely), it may mean that consumers trade in their SUVs for smaller cars, hybrid vehicles, electric cars or cars that run on alternative fuels.
Will the World Ever Run Out of Oil?
 
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