What would an Islamic Germany look like?

[MD]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/million-refugees-arrive-germany-year-150914101006005.html

Since the native German TFR is the lowest in the world (1.43), it would suggest that the native German population will decrease each generation by about 25-30%. Germany has also said they are planning on taking 500,000 refugees a year for several years. Assuming that most of these refugees are Syrian (which they are not but whatever), that shows the Syrian TFR to be 2.4. However a large chunk of these refugees are from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sub Saharan and East Africa where the TFR is considerably higher and the regions are still mostly Islamic. The TFR should be rounded up for refugees up to 3.0 if you include other ethnic groups. With an average TFR of 3.0, it results in a 25-30% increase per generation. Throw in immigration from Islamic countries and that amounts to at least a million Muslims a year. Let's assume Germany takes in a million Muslim immigrants and refugees (Germany has already promised to take 500,000) a year over say 5 years, that would amount to:

2015 - 6 million
2016 - 7 million
2017 - 8 million
2019- 9 million
2020 - 10 million

If each generation is about 30 years, extrapolating projections based on TFR gives:

2050: Non Muslim German population falls from 76 million to 53 million (with a 30% drop)
Muslim German population rises from 10 million to 13 million (with a 30% rise)

Assuming lifespans increase and TFRs drop for native Muslim population we have:

2080: Non Muslim German population falls from 53 million to 40 million (with a 25% drop)
Muslim German population rises from 13 million to 16 million (with a 25% rise)

Let's assume the overall population stays constant and Germany takes immigrants from other parts of the world, say India, China, Russia, ME and EU. As of now 20% of Germany is comprised of non ethnic Germans, and 1/8 of these legal immigrants are Muslims. Thus following the same demographic in 2080, the native born German population (born Muslim and non Muslim Germans) would be 56 million and to keep population of Germany stable at 80 million, that would require another 24 million million immigrants. If 12.5% of these 24 million native immigrants are Muslim, that's around 3 million Muslims, which would mean by 2080 the Islamic population of Germany would be 19 million and Non Muslim population will be 69 million. By mid 22nd century both populations would be equal.

We are assuming that the TFRs stay constant, which probably is wrong and will fall as is the current trend in the world. We are also assuming that Islamic religiosity stays constant, but one can argue that it could rise rather than fall. There is no shortage of poor Muslim refugees who will continue to stream into Europe for the next century, and if Germany continues to stay open it will continue to accept these Muslim refugees and thus offset the drop in native German Islamic TFR.

There is no doubt in my mind that Germany and probably Europe will have a Muslim majority in just over a 100 years, however the direction of Islamization is important. The actress who played Shae on Game of Thrones is a European Muslim, but so are the thousands of jihadists who have joined ISIS and Al Nusra.

What direction will German Islam take? What would a German state with a majority Islamic population look like?

 

[psychoslice]

Well there goes the pork sausages lol.

 

[Jumi]

This crisis in Europe might become ugly fast. Austerity measures on local population combined with bad handling of this refugee crisis is a dangerous situation.

 

[sandandfoam]

People moving from place to place in search of a better life is the way and it has always been so. Ever since our distant ancestors left Africa.
Letting religion entirely aside - in my opinion anyone who would begrudge a better life to people fleeing war and misery is lacking in the most basic human decency.
But for a roll of the dice it could be any one of us.

 

[Princeps Eugenius]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/million-refugees-arrive-germany-year-150914101006005.html

Since the native German TFR is the lowest in the world (1.43), it would suggest that the native German population will decrease each generation by about 25-30%. Germany has also said they are planning on taking 500,000 refugees a year for several years. Assuming that most of these refugees are Syrian (which they are not but whatever), that shows the Syrian TFR to be 2.4. However a large chunk of these refugees are from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sub Saharan and East Africa where the TFR is considerably higher and the regions are still mostly Islamic. The TFR should be rounded up for refugees up to 3.0 if you include other ethnic groups. With an average TFR of 3.0, it results in a 25-30% increase per generation. Throw in immigration from Islamic countries and that amounts to at least a million Muslims a year. Let's assume Germany takes in a million Muslim immigrants and refugees (Germany has already promised to take 500,000) a year over say 5 years, that would amount to:

2015 - 6 million
2016 - 7 million
2017 - 8 million
2019- 9 million
2020 - 10 million

If each generation is about 30 years, extrapolating projections based on TFR gives:

2050: Non Muslim German population falls from 76 million to 53 million (with a 30% drop)
Muslim German population rises from 10 million to 13 million (with a 30% rise)

Assuming lifespans increase and TFRs drop for native Muslim population we have:

2080: Non Muslim German population falls from 53 million to 40 million (with a 25% drop)
Muslim German population rises from 13 million to 16 million (with a 25% rise)

Let's assume the overall population stays constant and Germany takes immigrants from other parts of the world, say India, China, Russia, ME and EU. As of now 20% of Germany is comprised of non ethnic Germans, and 1/8 of these legal immigrants are Muslims. Thus following the same demographic in 2080, the native born German population (born Muslim and non Muslim Germans) would be 56 million and to keep population of Germany stable at 80 million, that would require another 24 million million immigrants. If 12.5% of these 24 million native immigrants are Muslim, that's around 3 million Muslims, which would mean by 2080 the Islamic population of Germany would be 19 million and Non Muslim population will be 69 million. By mid 22nd century both populations would be equal.

We are assuming that the TFRs stay constant, which probably is wrong and will fall as is the current trend in the world. We are also assuming that Islamic religiosity stays constant, but one can argue that it could rise rather than fall. There is no shortage of poor Muslim refugees who will continue to stream into Europe for the next century, and if Germany continues to stay open it will continue to accept these Muslim refugees and thus offset the drop in native German Islamic TFR.

There is no doubt in my mind that Germany and probably Europe will have a Muslim majority in just over a 100 years, however the direction of Islamization is important. The actress who played Shae on Game of Thrones is a European Muslim, but so are the thousands of jihadists who have joined ISIS and Al Nusra.

What direction will German Islam take? What would a German state with a majority Islamic population look like?

The really annoying part of all of this is that the ethnical germans are made to believe that having any opposing interest other than welcoming these foreign immigrants is ALWAYS equal to HITLER and NAZI. No matter how you put your arguments youre a NAZI and HITLER as long as you even THINK that there are too many of them. To these media people, and you see it everywhere from politician to Youtube stars, there are never enough aliens, the more the better is their motto, so they portray the situation as if the NAZI population of germany isnt reproducing so we need fresh new studs to fertalize our women. No ****ing joke this is how insane these people are.

Who are these NAZIs? Anyone who opposes immigrants.

 

[Princeps Eugenius]

People moving from place to place in search of a better life is the way and it has always been so. Ever since our distant ancestors left Africa.
Letting religion entirely aside - in my opinion anyone who would begrudge a better life to people fleeing war and misery is lacking in the most basic human decency.
But for a roll of the dice it could be any one of us.

I myself dont believe in chance and the body you have and the wealth you have are destined to be yours. So you better go about keeping these things if youre still sane.

 

[MARCELLO]

What would a christian Kuwait look like? Rather than adding a few churches,I guess it would look the same.

 

[Yerda]

People moving from place to place in search of a better life is the way and it has always been so. Ever since our distant ancestors left Africa.
Letting religion entirely aside - in my opinion anyone who would begrudge a better life to people fleeing war and misery is lacking in the most basic human decency.
But for a roll of the dice it could be any one of us.

Well said.

 

[Servant_of_the_One1]

Germans wont let that happen, they know how to contain it.

 

[Theweirdtophat]

I don't think an Isalmic Germany is going to happen anytime soon. It is important to try and help others but taking tons of refugees at once may upset things. Germany has problems of their own and trying to help everyone may hurt them to the position where they won't be able to help anyone, including themselves.

 

[Demonslayer]

What would an Islamic Germany look like?

I have no idea, but I'll tell you one thing...it's a scary proposition for the Jews.

 

[MD]

People moving from place to place in search of a better life is the way and it has always been so. Ever since our distant ancestors left Africa.
Letting religion entirely aside - in my opinion anyone who would begrudge a better life to people fleeing war and misery is lacking in the most basic human decency.
But for a roll of the dice it could be any one of us.

I'm not begrudging them at all, I myself am an immigrant and have lived in several countries in the third world. I know how tough it is. However, I do think it is inevitable that the Islamic population in Europe will continue to grow substantially to the point that it becomes a very large minority within my lifetime and a majority within my grand kids lifetime. Many of these European Muslims will look 'white' too.

What I'm asking is how can policy guide European Islam so that it becomes more liberal?

I also don't think that there will be a drop in religiosity with regards to Islam. The new atheist movement has failed to make a dent in the faith, there is a lot of oil money helping spread the faith and there are many Islamic think tanks which counter evidential claims which point out the flaws of Islam. Not to mention that Moore's law is slowing down and will probably die within the next decade, suggesting that the age of information technology might soon come to an end.

 

[MD]

I don't think an Isalmic Germany is going to happen anytime soon. It is important to try and help others but taking tons of refugees at once may upset things. Germany has problems of their own and trying to help everyone may hurt them to the position where they won't be able to help anyone, including themselves.

If you see my very crude and basic math, taking TFRs into account it will happen within the next century or two. Which is a very short time for such a large demographic shift.

 

[dust1n]

There is no doubt in my mind that Germany and probably Europe will have a Muslim majority in just over a 100 years,

 

[Princeps Eugenius]

Hes absolutely right. Most of the germans dont reproduce and even those that do have 1 child - 2 at the maximum. And for some really bizzare reason: whereever i go i see only little girls and very few boys. There a guy has a daugther - there a woman has a daughter - there my neighbor has 2 daugthers. Boys are seldom like perhaps 25% at the most. Now imagine these new muslims coming over. what will happen in 16 years? these same girls will find muslim boys to date with and will eventually marry them thus becoming muslim converts having rich muslim offspring. the numbers and facts are absolutely speaking for an islamazation of germany unless some sort of reformation happens or germany becomes more ethnically and religiously radical, which i see as likely as 0.1%

 

[dust1n]

Hes absolutely right. Most of the germans dont reproduce and even those that do have 1 child - 2 at the maximum. And for some really bizzare reason: whereever i go i see only little girls and very few boys. There a guy has a daugther - there a woman has a daughter - there my neighbor has 2 daugthers. Boys are seldom like perhaps 25% at the most.

You don't seriously expect me believe that only 1/4 children born to native Germans are males...

Now imagine these new muslims coming over. what will happen in 16 years?

Half will return home when the wars destroying their country are over.

these same girls will find muslim boys to date with and will eventually marry them thus becoming muslim converts having rich muslim offspring.

We'll we all know Western Girls and outdated gender norms including prayer and specific clothing go hand and hand...

the numbers and facts are absolutely speaking for an islamazation of germany unless some sort of reformation happens or germany becomes more ethnically and religiously radical, which i see as likely as 0.1%

The numbers and facts are haphazardly put together, omitting many factors...

 

[MD]

The numbers and facts are haphazardly put together, omitting many factors...

http://www.christianpost.com/news/i...slim-refugees-to-breed-with-europeans-145930/

 

[Princeps Eugenius]

You don't seriously expect me believe that only 1/4 children born to native Germans are males...

This is my experience from what i see on the streets of my hometown.

Half will return home when the wars destroying their country are over.

I havent heard of that yet. all the turks/albanians/arabs i had the pleasure to go to school with are still living here. ive met many of them recently.

We'll we all know Western Girls and outdated gender norms including prayer and specific clothing go hand and hand...

Western Girls go by what the society considers to be the norm not their own sense of right and wrong. even the educated ones are mostly this way.

The numbers and facts are haphazardly put together, omitting many factors...

such as?

 

[dust1n]

http://www.christianpost.com/news/i...slim-refugees-to-breed-with-europeans-145930/

Ah, I forgot that all the refugees in Europe and most of the Muslims in the world care about an Imam that no one has heard of.

 

[MD]

Ah, I forgot that all the refugees in Europe and most of the Muslims in the world care about an Imam that no one has heard of.

This Imam's views are the norm, not the exception.

You pro Islamic liberals always crack me up, ignorance at its finest.