• Welcome to Religious Forums, a friendly forum to discuss all religions in a friendly surrounding.

    Your voice is missing! You will need to register to get access to the following site features:
    • Reply to discussions and create your own threads.
    • Our modern chat room. No add-ons or extensions required, just login and start chatting!
    • Access to private conversations with other members.

    We hope to see you as a part of our community soon!

What will happen if US/British/Nato forces lose in Afghanistan?

kai

ragamuffin
How? How is the new regime you envision going to enforce order and prevent the return of Islamic terrorist groups to tribal areas without the permanent presence of NATO combat forces?

with a well trained and equipped security force , with tribal chiefs on board, and with my hearts and minds policy of investment in infrastructure providing a serious upgrading of the living standards of the Afghans.By helping achieve a fair and representative government , By a secure border with a permanent border force. and by helping Pakistan to do a similar operation on its side of the border. It cant work without Pakistani commitment as a very large area of Taliban control is in Pakistan.
 

kai

ragamuffin
One would love to see an acceptable end with every one happy.
This will never be the case.
We can neither afford the cost to win, nor afford the loss of face to lose..
So we will rationalize any result as a win.

Its not about losing face its about curing a cancer with a combination of surgery and care. the west will not lose they would only give up because politicians think more of losing their seats than winning the war. They are to scared to commit to a war on the Taliban and seem to act as if their in some kind of peace keeping mission.
 

Alceste

Vagabond
and that is now bordering on the ridiculous. I dont think you have anything constructive to say Alceste really you ten to veer off ith some fanciful and farcical ranting. what exactly do you suggest and how do you see the ramifications of carrying out your plan?


I suggest getting out of the local, unilateral empire-building game and taking a stab at the global, cooperative counter-terrorism game. For how to do it, of course I would recommend we defer to the expertise of counter-terrorism experts, Islamic scholars and the international intelligence community.

You still haven't explained how installing a Western puppet government in Afghanistan is expected to solve the problem of Algerian, Sri Lankan, Chechnyan, Pakistani, Saudi Arabian (etc) Islamic terrorists, or cells operating in the US and the UK.
 

Alceste

Vagabond
with a well trained and equipped security force , with tribal chiefs on board, and with my hearts and minds policy of investment in infrastructure providing a serious upgrading of the living standards of the Afghans.By helping achieve a fair and representative government , By a secure border with a permanent border force. and by helping Pakistan to do a similar operation on its side of the border. It cant work without Pakistani commitment as a very large area of Taliban control is in Pakistan.

How much are you willing to spend, how many lives is it worth, and how long are you willing to stay?
 

kai

ragamuffin
I suggest getting out of the local, unilateral empire-building game What who is doing this ? are you saying ISAF is a unilateral empire building organisation?and taking a stab at the global, cooperative counter-terrorism game. For how to do it, of course I would recommend we defer to the expertise of counter-terrorism experts, Islamic scholars and the international intelligence community.arnt we doing that already? except there is a slight problem with which Islamic scholars you defer to.

You still haven't explained how installing a Western puppet government in Afghanistan is expected to solve the problem of Algerian, Sri Lankan, Chechnyan, Pakistani, Saudi Arabian (etc) Islamic terrorists, or cells operating in the US and the UK.

I wouldnt install a western puppet government i would have the Afghans elect a fair and representative government. and it wont solve the problems in Algeria or anywhere else i have already said you would need to look at each of these problem areas on its own circumstances.
 

kai

ragamuffin
How much are you willing to spend, how many lives is it worth, and how long are you willing to stay?

i would spend as much as it takes, it not worth the wasting of one life but this situation calls for military action and the way this war has been fought has wasted lives, the alternative is not acceptable. and i would stay as long as it takes to carry out my suggestions. I dont see any other options other than running away and letting someone else deal with it later probably with a large amount of bombing. It needs boots on the ground.


are you willing to spend anything? are you willing to let the Taliban overun Afghanistan? would you be willing to leave Alqueda openly in place there?
 

Alceste

Vagabond
I wouldnt install a western puppet government i would have the Afghans elect a fair and representative government. and it wont solve the problems in Algeria or anywhere else i have already said you would need to look at each of these problem areas on its own circumstances.

I'm still not seeing a satisfactory explanation of why Afghanistan gets decades of war, chaos, instability and full-fledged military occupation, while a dozen other countries that are equally infested with Islamic terrorists are left pretty much to their own devices.

I gather you don't believe the objective in Afghanistan is fighting al Qaeda then, but eradicating the Taliban and attempting to establish regional stability and a Western-style secular democracy?
 

kai

ragamuffin
I'm still not seeing a satisfactory explanation of why Afghanistan gets decades of war, chaos, instability and full-fledged military occupation, while a dozen other countries that are equally infested with Islamic terrorists are left pretty much to their own devices. show me a country that is equally infested with Islamic terrorists sheltering within an umbrella of a like minded government.

I gather you don't believe the objective in Afghanistan is fighting al Qaeda then, but eradicating the Taliban and attempting to establish regional stability and a Western-style secular democracy?

i believe the objectives are one and the same
 

Alceste

Vagabond
i would spend as much as it takes, it not worth the wasting of one life but this situation calls for military action and the way this war has been fought has wasted lives, the alternative is not acceptable. and i would stay as long as it takes to carry out my suggestions. I dont see any other options other than running away and letting someone else deal with it later probably with a large amount of bombing. It needs boots on the ground.


are you willing to spend anything? are you willing to let the Taliban overun Afghanistan? would you be willing to leave Alqueda openly in place there?

I have not supported the invasion of Afghanistan from the very beginning. I don't believe a single dollar should have been spent on "regime change", or that a single life should have been lost "projecting American power and defending American interests in the Middle East" as desired by the neo-cons.

I have always seen 9-11 as a crime, not an act of war. It should have been investigated by intelligence and police services and justice carried out in an international court of law. Or, if that could not be accomplished, al Qaeda should have been undermined by continuous, covert efforts to assassinate the leaders of the movement and freeze their sources of funding. Also, intense diplomatic and economic pressure on Pakistan to bring the ISI to heel and get control of its borders would not have been amiss.

I've also never seen any sense at all in the ridiculous argument that there is more "shame" in admitting failure and returning home with humility and a lesson learned than there is in throwing more and more money and lives into the pit out of sheer pride, naivete and hubris - only to fail anyway when you've run out of money and soldiers willing to die for nothing.
 
Last edited:

kai

ragamuffin
I have not supported the invasion of Afghanistan from the very beginning. I don't believe a single dollar should have been spent on "regime change", or that a single life should have been lost "projecting American power and defending American interests in the Middle East" as desired by the neo-cons. Then you are OK with the Taliban in Power.

I have always seen 9-11 as a crime, not an act of war. It should have been investigated by intelligence and police services and justice carried out in a court of law. Or, if that could not be accomplished, al Qaeda should have been undermined by continuous, covert efforts to assassinate the leaders of the movement and freeze their sources of funding. Also, intense diplomatic and economic pressure on Pakistan to bring the ISI to heel and get control of its borders. well the thing is that would have been extremely difficult or near on impossible to do with Alqueda resting in a Taliban controlled country and whos borders ? the Taliban would still be in control of the border.

I've also never seen any sense at all in the ridiculous argument that there is more "shame" in admitting failure and returning home with humility and a lesson learned than there is in throwing more and more money and lives into the pit out of sheer pride, naivete and hubris - only to fail anyway when you've run out of money and soldiers willing to die for nothing.


the shame is in providing your own failure by the selfish interests for politicians using soldiers lives to placate their electorate. of politicians not giving soldiers the men and equipment to win a war they started. the shame would be having to deal with this a second time.and after promising the Afghans security and freedom from the Taliban to walk away and leave them to their fate.
 

Alceste

Vagabond
Kai, I'm not sure how you missed the memo, but almost all of the 9-11 hijackers came from Saudi Arabia and were living and training in the US. None of them were from Afghanistan.
 

kai

ragamuffin
Kai, I'm not sure how you missed the memo, but almost all of the 9-11 hijackers came from Saudi Arabia and were living and training in the US. None of them were from Afghanistan.

so what are you saying? Alqueda and its leaders were not responsible? are you saying the 9/11 bombers acted unilaterally? that Bin Laden had nothing to do with it? what point are you trying to make? are you saying we should only go after the lower echelons once they are in place and conspiring to murder? and leave the rest of the organisation intact? you are also aware Al-Qaeda not only enjoyed the Taliban's protection but enjoyed a measure of legitimacy as part of their Ministry of Defense.
 
Last edited:

Alceste

Vagabond
so what are you saying? Alqueda and its leaders were not responsible? are you saying the 9/11 bombers acted unilaterally? that Bin Laden had nothing to do with it? what point are you trying to make? are you saying we should only go after the lower echelons once they are in place and conspiring to murder? and leave the rest of the organisation intact? you are also aware Al-Qaeda not only enjoyed the Taliban's protection but enjoyed a measure of legitimacy as part of their Ministry of Defense.


The point I have made is that al Qaeda is a global phenomenon. Unless you are prepared to fight a ground war and install Western puppet democracies in every single country where the government is either sympathetic to Islamists or unable to contain them - and then pay the bill for their police force and army - your strategy to democratize Afghanistan will have no impact on al Qaeda and the dangers Islamic terrorism poses to the West. (As, I might add, was obvious from the very beginning. This war has nothing to do with democratizing Afghanistan or combatting al Qaeda. It's war for the sake of war.)
 

kai

ragamuffin
The point I have made is that al Qaeda is a global phenomenon. Unless you are prepared to fight a ground war and install Western puppet democracies in every single country where the government is either sympathetic to Islamists or unable to contain them - and then pay the bill for their police force and army - your strategy to democratize Afghanistan will have no impact on al Qaeda and the dangers Islamic terrorism poses to the West. (As, I might add, was obvious from the very beginning. This war has nothing to do with democratizing Afghanistan or combatting al Qaeda. It's war for the sake of war.)

i am afraid i disagree with your entire outlook. i feel its verging on the ridiculous.
 

Dunemeister

Well-Known Member
so what are you saying? Alqueda and its leaders were not responsible? are you saying the 9/11 bombers acted unilaterally? that Bin Laden had nothing to do with it? what point are you trying to make? are you saying we should only go after the lower echelons once they are in place and conspiring to murder? and leave the rest of the organisation intact? you are also aware Al-Qaeda not only enjoyed the Taliban's protection but enjoyed a measure of legitimacy as part of their Ministry of Defense.

Can't speak for Alceste, but I'd say the following in response:

Al-Qaeda was responsible for the attack on the Twin Towers, but there was exactly zero connection between the Al-Qaeda cells responsible and the Taliban. The Taliban did not know about the attacks and most likely would not have supported it if they had known. The Taliban is radically concerned with the behavior of Muslims in Muslim lands; they quite generally don't give a fig out the infidels live, much less the Great Satan. Hence a ground war in Afghanistan to get rid of the Taliban is misguided.

Second, it's unclear to me that a Taliban win in Afghanistan means a win for Al-Qaeda. The Taliban offered sanctuary to Al-Qaeda and permitted them some operations in Afghanistan out of gratitude for their help in removing the Soviets. Would a new generation of Taliban leadership show the same gratitude for bringing foreign troops to their soil? What evidence is there for that?

Third, democracy works when there is already a culture of rule of law. That is simply not the case in Afghanistan. There is little rule of law there now, and it's simply not in their political DNA. Instead, we have tribalism and rule by decree. Whatever state apparatus holds sway in Kabul makes a show of rule of law, but the ineffectiveness of that apparatus over the years shows how subject it is to those tribalistic tendencies. So no matter how many troops we put in there or for how long, there is little to no prospect of establishing a democracy there that anyone would consider legitimate. So there's not much in it for us (or for the world) in that respect either.

Fourth, although there were people with Al-Qaeda connections in the Defense ministry, it is not at all clear to me that Al-Qaeda itself played much role in the Taliban ministry of defense. What's your evidence for their involvement? Besides, even if it were so, that was then and this is now. The Taliban offered sanctuary for Al-Qaeda as an honour debt. That debt has been paid, and arguably Al-Qaeda is a liability for the Taliban (both domestically and internationally). So there's little to motivate close cooperation.

Fifth, if the United States top brass really wanted Bin Laden, they would have had him by now. Despite the fact that he was primarily responsible for financing the attacks (not planning), the government has actually done little to apprehend him. The man's on dialysis for crying out loud! How hard can it be? Besides, if the US wants BL, they have international means to get him. They can find out where he is and then take a police action to get him. They don't have to career around the countryside of Afghanistan or Pakistan wasting civilian lives (not to mention those of their own soldiers).

Sixth, if the United States wants long-term protection from Al-Qaeda, a ground war won't do it. It's too broadly and sparsely sprinkled over the world, and it's an idea more than an institution. So what's an army to do about it? If you remove BL, the next guy will take his place. And the new guy may be more radical and more of a headache than BL. No, to tackle Al-Qaeda, the US needs to strengthen ties with the countries where Al-Qaeda has bases: countries like Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece, not to mention certain middle eastern and northern African jurisdiction. It means political contact and interface with regimes the US has traditionally considered unsavory. But that's the price to pay if you really want to get Al-Qaeda.

Last, even if you get rid of Al-Qaeda, you won't get rid of the idea that spawned them. That's the business of Muslims. It's up to them to marginalize and make impotent those groups, domestic or foreign, that are inspired by this particularly virulent form of radical Islam and insist on doing the sort of thing Al-Qaeda does. Our safety, like it or not, rests partly in the hands of others (insofar as Muslims are "others", although I don't think that's the right way of speaking). But then, that's always the way it has been. 9/11 merely brought that lesson home.
 

kai

ragamuffin
Can't speak for Alceste, but I'd say the following in response:

Al-Qaeda was responsible for the attack on the Twin Towers, but there was exactly zero connection between the Al-Qaeda cells responsible and the Taliban. The Taliban did not know about the attacks and most likely would not have supported it if they had known. The Taliban is radically concerned with the behavior of Muslims in Muslim lands; they quite generally don't give a fig out the infidels live, much less the Great Satan. Hence a ground war in Afghanistan to get rid of the Taliban is misguided. Let me get this straight the ground war is misguided because the Taliban didnt know about the twin towers attack. OK i can give you that one but what has that to do with the ground war exactly? should we then ignore Alqueda cells that were not responsible for the 9/11 attack?

Second, it's unclear to me that a Taliban win in Afghanistan means a win for Al-Qaeda. The Taliban offered sanctuary to Al-Qaeda and permitted them some operations in Afghanistan out of gratitude for their help in removing the Soviets. Would a new generation of Taliban leadership show the same gratitude for bringing foreign troops to their soil? What evidence is there for that? you mean what evidence is there that the Taliban and Alqueda are dissinfranchised none that i know of as far as i can tell its business as usual between them.

Third, democracy works when there is already a culture of rule of law. That is simply not the case in Afghanistan. There is little rule of law there now, and it's simply not in their political DNA. Instead, we have tribalism and rule by decree. Whatever state apparatus holds sway in Kabul makes a show of rule of law, but the ineffectiveness of that apparatus over the years shows how subject it is to those tribalistic tendencies. So no matter how many troops we put in there or for how long, there is little to no prospect of establishing a democracy there that anyone would consider legitimate. So there's not much in it for us (or for the world) in that respect either.
OK what are the options?
Fourth, although there were people with Al-Qaeda connections in the Defense ministry, it is not at all clear to me that Al-Qaeda itself played much role in the Taliban ministry of defense. What's your evidence for their involvement? Besides, even if it were so, that was then and this is now. The Taliban offered sanctuary for Al-Qaeda as an honour debt. That debt has been paid, and arguably Al-Qaeda is a liability for the Taliban (both domestically and internationally). So there's little to motivate close cooperation. you seem to surmise that they have fallen out why so?

Fifth, if the United States top brass really wanted Bin Laden, they would have had him by now. Despite the fact that he was primarily responsible for financing the attacks (not planning), the government has actually done little to apprehend him. The man's on dialysis for crying out loud! How hard can it be? Besides, if the US wants BL, they have international means to get him. They can find out where he is and then take a police action to get him. They don't have to career around the countryside of Afghanistan or Pakistan wasting civilian lives (not to mention those of their own soldiers). Do you have an explanation then for not finding him? I tend to think he is in North West Pakistan

Sixth, if the United States wants long-term protection from Al-Qaeda, a ground war won't do it. It's too broadly and sparsely sprinkled over the world, and it's an idea more than an institution. So what's an army to do about it? If you remove BL, the next guy will take his place. And the new guy may be more radical and more of a headache than BL. No, to tackle Al-Qaeda, the US needs to strengthen ties with the countries where Al-Qaeda has bases: countries like Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece, not to mention certain middle eastern and northern African jurisdiction. It means political contact and interface with regimes the US has traditionally considered unsavory. But that's the price to pay if you really want to get Al-Qaeda. OK how do you deal with Alqueda in Afghanistan and Pakistan though or do you mean leave them to it

Last, even if you get rid of Al-Qaeda, you won't get rid of the idea that spawned them. That's the business of Muslims. It's up to them to marginalize and make impotent those groups, domestic or foreign, that are inspired by this particularly virulent form of radical Islam and insist on doing the sort of thing Al-Qaeda does. Our safety, like it or not, rests partly in the hands of others (insofar as Muslims are "others", although I don't think that's the right way of speaking). But then, that's always the way it has been. 9/11 merely brought that lesson home.
I agree
 
Last edited:

Alceste

Vagabond
Thanks Dunemeister - you do a better job speaking for me than I'm prepared to do during quick breaks at work I was only attempting to address the 6th point (keep it simple, you know), but of course all your points are equally superb - there are dozens of excellent reasons to oppose the combat mission in Afghanistan, and very few reasons to support it - most of which amount to a sense of patriotism and cultural / ideological superiority. ("We can't leave because it would be embarassing to our nation", "we can't leave because we promised to remake Afghanistan in our own image and we don't want to let those poor benighted goat herders down").
 

kai

ragamuffin
Thanks Dunemeister - you do a better job speaking for me than I'm prepared to do during quick breaks at work I was only attempting to address the 6th point (keep it simple, you know), but of course all your points are equally superb - there are dozens of excellent reasons to oppose the combat mission in Afghanistan, and very few reasons to support it - most of which amount to a sense of patriotism and cultural / ideological superiority. ("We can't leave because it would be embarassing to our nation", "we can't leave because we promised to remake Afghanistan in our own image and we don't want to let those poor benighted goat herders down").


nice speech it doesnt really address any issues though but it no doubt sits well with some people. i dont remember seeing anything about idealogical superiority or "goat herders" in the UN resolutions but never mind.

http://www.nato.int/isaf/topics/mandate/unscr/resolution_1776.pdf


no i was right no mention of Goat Herders who are they Alceste?
 
Last edited:
Top