Akeidat Yitzchak 98:1:21 ( Emphasis mine )
When man descends from a high ethical plateau, the descent is the reverse of his previous ascent. Since we have shown that the high moral level had been achieved only in stages, gradually, it stands to reason that the descent if and when it occurs, would also be gradual. At the beginning one still performs the ritual of tradition, but only because it is tradition. Its hold on the personality of the person performing it has already been weakened. Later on, one gives up habits which have become devoid of inner meaning. Finally, one abandons even the theory the "Jewish concept" that had once had the power to prompt one to perform mitzvot not only in spirit but in deed. Verse fifteen already states that Israel will experience full retribution. Verse sixteen begins by listing the calamities that will befall the nation following departure from the path of mitzvot. There are three groups of calamities. The first group begins with: "G'd will afflict you with cholera fever." (28,20) The second group begins with: "the skies will be leaden." (28,23) The third group begins with: "you will fall before your enemies." (28,25) After that there follows a long list of personal afflictions designed to frighten the reader. All this is to emphasize how many and varied are the catastrophies both on a national and on an individual level that the Jewish people had never been exposed to, due to G'ds Personal Providence. This Personal Providence had been extended in order to help them to observe Torah laws with minimal inconvenience and from sheltered conditions. The negative chain reaction works as follows. When mitzvot are neglected, Providence is withdrawn. This makes it harder to observe mitzvot, and increases the pressure of worldly affairs. This in turn leads to further neglect of Torah, resulting in people forgetting what they had once known. One will lose one's self esteem, become enslaved to others both spiritually and materially. All of this is due to the fact that one did not serve G'd joyfully, "with joy and good heartedness" (28,47). The "measure for measure" then is, instead of serving the Lord acknowledging Him as the source of our affluence, you will serve your enemies because you are completely destitute. Having undergone a number of indignities, (28,64) you will be scattered all over the earth. Since the return from Babylon had not really been a true redemption, real independence never having been achieved again, the tochacha, admonition only mentions interludes by again referring to "if you do not observe to carry out." (28,58) If during the many years of your stay in your own country, and despite the suffering absorbed, you continue in your obstinacy, you will wind up suffering the kind of plagues the Egyptians suffered. (28,60) The references to our present diaspora are clear inasmuch as they include subservience to a people of a completely foreign tongue, residing far away from the land of Israel. When the Torah talks about the original exile, it mentions only that our king would be taken captive together with us, to a place unknown to us where we would be forced to worship idols of wood and stone. However, when referring to the second exile, the description includes attempts to assimilate to the various host nations, endeavours which will not yield margoah, a sense of calm, but will eventually result in a return to our original values. Also, one of the features of the long exile will be the fear for our lives which will be constantly present, at least in some Jews in exile. (28,66) All this is in contrast with the ten tribes, who were able to either return or submerge and thus escape further persecution.
