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Want To See Something Sad, Depressing, And Scary? Of Course You Do

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Skwim, Dec 6, 2019.

  1. Skwim

    Skwim Veteran Member

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    .

    "This video shows the Top 20 countries with the largest reserves from 1960 to 2018. Total reserves comprise holdings of monetary gold, special drawing rights, reserves of IMF members held by the IMF, and holdings of foreign exchange under the control of monetary authorities.

    Information Source: International Monetary Fund"
    I suggest you enlarge.




    .
     
    #1 Skwim, Dec 6, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2019
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  2. Estro Felino

    Estro Felino Believer in free will
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    Speaking of gold...

    cula.jpg
     
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  3. Stevicus

    Stevicus Veteran Member
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    And to think that it's all the result of U.S. capitalists having a severe grudge with labor unions. They wrecked our economy purely out of spite and ego.
     
  4. Salvador

    Salvador RF's Swedenborgian

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    The employment data shows real wage growth, the U.S. economy is booming, poverty is declining; our Trump-led Trumped up economy is very prosperous.
     
  5. Revoltingest

    Revoltingest Christine's Uncle Fergus
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    I know that's what motivates me in business.

    Anyway, what is sad or scary about piddling gold reserves?
     
  6. sun rise

    sun rise "This is the Hour of God"
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    The deficit is exploding but the borrow and spend right does not care.
     
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  7. Salvador

    Salvador RF's Swedenborgian

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    Obama year deficits from 2010 to 2016 on average were ca. 5.4 percent of G.D.P. compared to Trump year deficits from 2017 to 2019 being on average ca. 4 percent of G.D.P.. A fair comparison of federal deficit spending relative to Gross Domestic Product reveals Obama year deficits being higher than Trump deficits.

    US Federal Deficit as Percent of GDP - plus charts and analysis
     
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  8. sun rise

    sun rise "This is the Hour of God"
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    The important statistic is the growth of the deficit. When a recession happens, the percent of GDP will skyrocket. We may see that in 2020 if some economists are correct.
     
  9. Revoltingest

    Revoltingest Christine's Uncle Fergus
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    Nonetheless, the poster is right that % of GDP
    is more meaningful than absolute spending.
    Btw, I've taken precautions against recession.
    We're at risk for it with both individuals &
    gov on a debt financed spending spree.
     
  10. Salvador

    Salvador RF's Swedenborgian

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    Economists have been wrongly predicting for years an imminent U.S. recession looming on the horizon. ..I know many Democrats would like this to happen soon in order to keep Donald J. Trump for being re-elected.
     
  11. Revoltingest

    Revoltingest Christine's Uncle Fergus
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    I hate predictions.
    What we have are a multitude of risk factors for recession.
    The more in number & severity, the greater the risk.
    But predicting a date?
    That's a bad idea because the triggers for depression are
    chaotic, eg, the 9/11 attacks leading to economic contraction,
    leading to loan defaults, leading to recession in 2008.
    This is observable in retrospect, but no one...absolutely no one
    could've predicted a meaningful time frame.
    Right now we have the same risk factors as before....
    - Big terrorist attack (but much less likely from planes now).
    - Massive borrowing with inadequate security, ie, high loan
    to value rations (some 100% financed loans again).
    - Bank regulation which inhibits flexibility with troubled
    borrowers, sending them into foreclosure rather than
    refinancing.
    - Low interest rates, which lead to over-borrowing & unstable
    high stock values (making them crashworthy if rates rise).
     
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  12. Salvador

    Salvador RF's Swedenborgian

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    In order to prevent a recession, Congress should work to enact the USMCA trade deal. Please let your Congressional Representative know that you'd like him/her to vote for the USMCA instead of doing nothing useful.
     
  13. Stevicus

    Stevicus Veteran Member
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    Maybe, although I'd have to see the stats. This chart indicates that the US economy peaked in the early 1970s, hit its lowest point in the mid-1990s and has slowly improved since then. But it still hasn't reached the same level as it was at its peak in the early 70s.

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Stevicus

    Stevicus Veteran Member
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    I'm not sure. Maybe it's a sign of desperation to have to tap into the gold reserves?
     
  15. Salvador

    Salvador RF's Swedenborgian

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    "The official poverty rate in 2018 was 11.8 percent, down 0.5 percentage points from 12.3 percent in 2017. This is the fourth consecutive annual decline in poverty. Since 2014, the poverty rate has fallen 3.0 percentage points, from 14.8 percent to 11.8 percent."

    Income and Poverty in the United States: 2018

    [​IMG]


    The Trump-led Trumped up American economy now has an overall rate of poverty nearly as low as the rate of poverty had been during the 1970's. Blacks and Hispanics are more prosperous now in the Trump-led Trumped up economy than they'd ever been before.
     
    #15 Salvador, Dec 6, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2019
  16. Revoltingest

    Revoltingest Christine's Uncle Fergus
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    Or the recognition that gold just sitting there is
    an unproductive asset in the age of fiat currency.
    Know what my gold reserves are?
    One plain gold wedding band.
     
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  17. Stevicus

    Stevicus Veteran Member
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    I have a couple of gold crowns. Gold isn't totally useless.

    The price of gold seems to go up and down a lot, at least according to the chart on this page: Gold Prices - 100 Year Historical Chart

    If you bought gold in 1970 and sold it in 1980, you'd make ten times your investment.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Revoltingest

    Revoltingest Christine's Uncle Fergus
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    And if we could know in advance when gold will balloon in value,
    & sell it before it crashes that would be great. But what if one
    bought in 1978, & sold in 2000? One's arsch would be lost.
    That's like claiming that slot machines have economic value
    because luck can bring a payoff.

    Btw, I calculate a much lower rate of return for your 1970 to 1980
    figure. You'd get about 4 times your purchase price ($200 to $800).
     
    #18 Revoltingest, Dec 6, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2019
  19. Salvador

    Salvador RF's Swedenborgian

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    I'd lost 40 lbs. nearly 15 years after my wedding day. My gold wedding band back then 11 years ago had fit me rather loosely. I'd done some commoner folk stuff back in my pre-inheritance days like bowling. Upon returning from the bowling alley, my wife immediately noticed my gold wedding band was missing. At this awkward moment in my life, the Lindsey Buckingham song "Trouble" played in my mind.



    Fortunately, I was able to promptly retrace my steps and reclaimed my gold wedding band where it'd slipped off at the base of the ball return on lane 13.
     
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