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Trumps popularity polls.
- Thread starter Riders
- Start date
No. What will mean something is people getting out to vote, and those votes being counted.
2016 should've shown everyone how useless those polls are.
It doesn't mean anything to me personally. That is, it's not going to affect my political views or voting choices either way.
Whether or not they're accurate is another story, although they usually come with a margin of error. Some of it might also depend on how a poll question is formulated and how the results are tabulated.
I remember one guy on the radio talking about a poll which focused on particular districts in key battleground states which could go either way. Since it's really about electoral votes more than the popular vote. More people might like Biden overall, but it depends on whether they're the right people in the right states.
Nearly 100% of the time the polls don't matter... What does matter:
Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago? If the answer is yes, then the incumbent wins. Trump is polling at like 60% for that, so yeah... Ignore all the rest of them, IMHO. It's not going to even be close, Trump will sweep. If the answer to that question was the other way then Trump would lose. (as Bush did, and so on.)
QuestioningMind
Well-Known Member
Please cite poll source.
PoetPhilosopher
Veteran Member
I mean, I do actually believe Biden is 4-12 points ahead in the popularity vote - will it be enough to win and make it well across the states with the electoral votes? We'll see.
The polls - including the ones in 2016 - were useful. What's important is understanding what they mean and their limitations.
Twilight Hue
Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
No. I think or like to think the majority of people know that polls are to be taken with a grain of salt.
PoetPhilosopher
Veteran Member
Not only that, we also have to often weigh in that the polls are about the popularity vote, and we have an electoral system.
Twilight Hue
Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
Good thing too. If it wasn't for the Electoral College people would be left without a voice. Especially rural areas where the majority of Trump supporters are.
Shadow Wolf
Certified People sTabber
Is that why they accurately predicted the popular vote winner? And last time he had stuff to release on Hillary, and then along came Comey.
But when the dust settled what they predicted did happen.
Shadow Wolf
Certified People sTabber
Most people don't have a voice with the EC. So many states are solidly blue or red they aren't competitive, which silences all the voices who don't vote with the state. And, this argument wants to go home and die in peace because pretty much it's Florida and Ohio that decides elections. California doesn't. Texas doesn't. Wyoming doesn't. Maine doesn't. N/W Dakota doesn't. Washington doesn't. It's only those who vote in congruently with their state in a few swing states that ever really decide things. Because of the EC, Republicans in New York are effectively silenced and go without a single say in representation much as Democrats in Indiana are consistently faced with the same reality.
PoetPhilosopher
Veteran Member
My vote will be silenced to my advantage in Illinois. But I still vote as a sort of symbolism.
Shadow Wolf
Certified People sTabber
Which is a tragedy. Because of the EC and a system of winner takes all, I suspect a massive percentage of Americans have, in the end, a vote that is only symbolic.
PureX
Veteran Member
Selfishness is a very poor criteria for voting. It's one of the main reasons we're in this mess.
But, it remains fundamentally the reason people vote. They vote for what they want. =D
Beyond that, it's really tough to make a coherent argument against quality of life improvements. I mean how do convince someone that is better off to risk that? It's just not going to happen -- it's too much to ask.
PureX
Veteran Member
There is our collective quality of life to be considered, as opposed to our own individual quality of life.
This is the main difference between republicans and democrats. It's the difference between voting for our collective well-being, and voting for our individual desires. Interestingly, the selfish voters always assume that everyone else votes selfishly, as well. Because they never really consider the thoughts or motivations of anyone else. Whereas the 'collective' voter is thinking about the needs and desires of lots of people who are in different circumstances from himself. It's why the democrats are interested in maintaining and improving social programs, and infrastructure improvements. While the republicans want to minimize or end them all together just to save on their own taxes.
Better polling reporting takes that into account, both by reporting EC vote predictions and also considering not just which candidate a survey respondent supports but how likely they are to vote.
Friend of Mara
Active Member
2016 has irreparably harmed my faith in polls. Not to say they aren't useful and that it does look rather good for Biden. Soon as we give up this un-democratic electoral college method these polls should stat to be more useful.