In my opinion I don't think he will run in 2024 unless he is 100% sure he will win. He wouldn't recover from being a two time loser. I don't think many, if any, have lost twice.
He's not going to run, but he will *hint* that he will. This keeps the grift going of manipulating his followers for Ca$h donations. He's milking his supporters dry. DeSantis will run in 2024 and the former guy will attempt to be FL governor
I have a different read on Trump. I think that what occupies his mind most is not having the spotlight on him any longer and his fading relevance, not his legal problems, and not the specter of losing. He misses having a platform since being banned from Twitter and losing the bully pulpit. He misses being seen and applauded. He is full of hatred and misses the opportunity to be arrogant, bigoted, and cruel.
Yes, Trump would fraudulently represent running again even if he had no interest in so doing for the fund-raising benefit, but he's a malignant narcissist and a bully, and needs attention and power. He'll make his best effort to get that back. I don't see him settling for less than the White House, so the talk of him trying to become a congressperson or a governor doesn't resonate. He wouldn't get the power or attention, and he would likely see it as demeaning to him.
He also may believe that the last election was stolen from him, and that he is actually much more popular than he is, which argues for running again.
There's also the fact that the GOP has shorn up voting in several states in such a way that had the new provisions been in effect in 2020, they could have stolen the election themselves:
"
Among the dozens of election reform laws changing rules regarding how voters cast ballots, several have also diminished secretaries of states' authority over elections or shifted aspects of election administration to highly partisan bodies, such as state legislators themselves or unevenly bipartisan election boards. "Inserting partisan actors into election administration ... is really a worrying trend when you understand it in the context of what happened in 2020," said Jessica Marsden, counsel for Protect Democracy, a nonprofit founded by former executive branch officials in the White House Counsel's Office and Department of Justice."
10 new state laws shift power over elections to partisan entities
Can the Democrats counter that with a new voting rights act? Possibly.
I don't think Trump could win a fair election, but I'm not expecting a fair election, even if all of the ballots are counted properly. So, he will likely run and likely win, even if indicted, even if in prison, although being incarcerated could possibly cost him the election simply because it would cramp his ability to stump and be on the evening news.
Don't seem to be a good indicator of much.
