The statistics of herd immunity

[sun rise]

Executive summary: over one million people in the US would die and the medical system utterly collapse to get to herd immunity.

Here's Why Herd Immunity Won't Save Us From The COVID-19 Pandemic

Herd immunity is an epidemiological concept that describes the state where a population – usually of people – is sufficiently immune to a disease that the infection will not spread within that group.
...
COVID-19 ...with an estimated R0 of roughly 3. With this number, the proportion of people who need to be infected is... sitting at around 70 percent of the entire population. ...If 70 percent of an entire population gets sick, that means that between 0.35-0.7 percent of everyone in a country could die, which is a catastrophic outcome. (that's over a million people dying taking the lower estimated number and rounding down)
...
With something like 10 percent of all infections needing to be hospitalised, you'd also see an enormous number of people very sick...

 

[stvdv]

Executive summary: over one million people in the US would die and the medical system utterly collapse to get to herd immunity.

So, ca. 1 out of 300 will die with herd immunity in USA. That is a lot. If that number also applies for Holland, then 1500 soon might become 60.000

And how much will die, without herd immunity?

And some even say, you can get it again, if you have had it.

So, this herd immunity seems a bit "Russian Roulette" in the moment

Not really scientific proven to be useful in saving lives

 

[shunyadragon]

Executive summary: over one million people in the US would die and the medical system utterly collapse to get to herd immunity.

Here's Why Herd Immunity Won't Save Us From The COVID-19 Pandemic

Herd immunity is an epidemiological concept that describes the state where a population – usually of people – is sufficiently immune to a disease that the infection will not spread within that group.
...
COVID-19 ...with an estimated R0 of roughly 3. With this number, the proportion of people who need to be infected is... sitting at around 70 percent of the entire population. ...If 70 percent of an entire population gets sick, that means that between 0.35-0.7 percent of everyone in a country could die, which is a catastrophic outcome. (that's over a million people dying taking the lower estimated number and rounding down)
...
With something like 10 percent of all infections needing to be hospitalised, you'd also see an enormous number of people very sick...

Herd immunity is not what saves any animal species from any virus. Vaccinations and the natural development of immunity in the population do help reduce the fatalities and cases of the virus, but viruses have been around through the whole history of humanity, and actually the whole history of life on earth, and viruses do not ever kill off their hosts. Viruses have a relationship of natural cycles in their hosts over time as they migrate from host to host.

Flu comes around seasonally every year, and lives off its host population, and mutates in various forms to its advantage to be successful in the population. Natural herd immunity that develops is part of the strategy of the host species, but it does not 'save' the species, nor does it kill off the species..

Even in the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 70% of the population did not get the flu, though the fatality rate was high. The flu came and went in a natural cycle relationship with the host just like all viruses that have this relationships with humans. That is how I calculate the bell curve relationship between the coronavirus and the host us.

 

[sun rise]

Herd immunity is not what saves any animal species from any virus. Vaccinations and the natural development of immunity in the population do help reduce the fatalities and cases of the virus, but viruses have been around through the whole history of humanity, and actually the whole history of life on earth, and viruses do not ever kill off their hosts. Viruses have a relationship of natural cycles in their hosts over time as they migrate from host to host.

Flu comes around seasonally every year, and lives off its host population, and mutates in various forms to its advantage to be successful in the population. Natural herd immunity that develops is part of the strategy of the host species, but it does not 'save' the species, nor does it kill off the species..

Even in the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 70% of the population did not get the flu, though the fatality rate was high. The flu came and went in a natural cycle relationship with the host just like all viruses that have this relationships with humans. That is how I calculate the bell curve relationship between the coronavirus and the host us.

I rely on expert opinion not on posts which falsely seek to conflate flu with COVID-19.

 

[shunyadragon]

I rely on expert opinion not on posts which falsely seek to conflate flu with COVID-19.

I am not conflating. Flus and coronaviruses are cousins, and they behave the same as described will cite more as before. Herd immunity does not save us from any virus.

I actually agreed with him on the fact that Herd immunity will not save you from coronavirus.

 

[Cooky]

Herd immunity is not what saves any animal species from any virus. Vaccinations and the natural development of immunity in the population do help reduce the fatalities and cases of the virus, but viruses have been around through the whole history of humanity, and actually the whole history of life on earth, and viruses do not ever kill off their hosts. Viruses have a relationship of natural cycles in their hosts over time as they migrate from host to host.

Flu comes around seasonally every year, and lives off its host population, and mutates in various forms to its advantage to be successful in the population. Natural herd immunity that develops is part of the strategy of the host species, but it does not 'save' the species, nor does it kill off the species..

Even in the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 70% of the population did not get the flu, though the fatality rate was high. The flu came and went in a natural cycle relationship with the host just like all viruses that have this relationships with humans. That is how I calculate the bell curve relationship between the coronavirus and the host us.

I heard that the plague resurfaced exactly at 20 yr. Intervals for hundreds of years after the initial pandemic. In fact, it was so predictable, that people actually learned to plan for it every 20 years. This was calculated by parish death records through the Catholic Church.

 

[shunyadragon]

I heard that the plague resurfaced exactly at 20 yr. Intervals for over 100 years after the initial pandemic. In fact, it was so predictable, that people actually learned to plan for it every 20 years. This was calculated by parish death records through the Catholic Church.

There is no evidence of a 20 years between pandemics in recent history. The present pandemic fall ~12 years after the 2008-9 H1N1 pandemic.

 

[Cooky]

There is no evidence of a 20 years between pandemics in recent history.

I know, I thought it was interesting to mention after you said:

Viruses have a relationship of natural cycles in their hosts over time as they migrate from host to host.

Flu comes around seasonally every year

 

[shunyadragon]

I know, I thought it was interesting to mention after you said:

. . . which is true. Based on the evidence the coronavirus is not going to kill a million people.

 

[Cooky]

. . . which is true.

Virology is an interesting branch of science.

 

[shunyadragon]

Virology is an interesting branch of science.

OK

 

[Twilight Hue]

Executive summary: over one million people in the US would die and the medical system utterly collapse to get to herd immunity.

Here's Why Herd Immunity Won't Save Us From The COVID-19 Pandemic

Herd immunity is an epidemiological concept that describes the state where a population – usually of people – is sufficiently immune to a disease that the infection will not spread within that group.
...
COVID-19 ...with an estimated R0 of roughly 3. With this number, the proportion of people who need to be infected is... sitting at around 70 percent of the entire population. ...If 70 percent of an entire population gets sick, that means that between 0.35-0.7 percent of everyone in a country could die, which is a catastrophic outcome. (that's over a million people dying taking the lower estimated number and rounding down)
...
With something like 10 percent of all infections needing to be hospitalised, you'd also see an enormous number of people very sick...

That's perhaps if you're going by herd immunity alone, although I still doubt you would arrive at those kind of figures.

I can see millions being infected but millions dying would be something I'd have to see, although I hope I never do.

I still think herd immunity is a valid strategy in conjunction with the other things that we are doing for prevention which so far has been said to be effective in its own right.

 

[sun rise]

That's perhaps if you're going by herd immunity alone, although I still doubt you would arrive at those kind of figures.

I can see millions being infected but millions dying would be something I'd have to see, although I hope I never do.

I still think herd immunity is a valid strategy in conjunction with the other things that we are doing for prevention which so far has been said to be effective in its own right.

I believe in the numbers not in wishful thinking which ignores the numbers. I believe in science not in magical thinking.

Herd immunity is a delusion. Testing to find those who have recovered and are thus immune and won't infect others is another matter. That's not herd immunity but targeted and effective testing and making decisions on a person by person basis.

 

[stvdv]

I believe in science not in magical thinking.

I believe in both AND use my common sense and discrimination to choose wisely

1) Some scientists said herd immunity is best. Dutch Prime Minister believed those scientists.

2) WHO said masks are not needed for public. While thousands were dying. Now they say masks might be better. Which proves they lied first and so they are responsible some people got "killed" by their false information.

From day 1 my magical thinking said both are BS.
I used my common sense and discrimination and came to the conclusion that they lied. IF I know this, then of course they knew it.

Hence they have an obvious hidden agenda
Which, using CS + DIS is easy to figure out.

Knowing this to be a fact, will make me distrust them in the future. And trust my CS even more