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The real reason North Korea is giving up Nuclear Weapons.

bobhikes

Nondetermined
Premium Member
I was surprised that no media group has been reporting the actual reason. I haven't posted because I doubted myself with the lack of media report. At mother's day meal, my brother in law a Fox New's guy and Trump Supporter responded to my brothers inquiry into why North Korea was giving up Nuclear Weapons.

He stated they had a major Nuclear Disaster. I couldn't believe it, I asked how he came to the same conclusion I had. He was interested after the Fox Reports on the mountain collaspe and did some internet research. Fox and Trump supporters can make real discoveries.

The mountain under which they tested their nuclear weapons has Collapsed. There were earthquakes associated along the China/North Korea boarder. The estimate is 100 Kilotons, Hiroshima was 15 Kilotons

Scientists suspect mountain collapse at N. Korea nuke test site

More than likely a bulk of his scientists and nuclear specialists were lost during the accident. Also most of the needed materials are not accessible now and won't be for 1000's of years. Kim Jung Un only save face is to get a deal with South Korea and offering nothing of value. Yes getting North Korea to commit to not making Nuclear Weapons is a big political win but the truth is that they no longer can make Nuclear Weapon's and it would take years before they could again.
 

Lyndon

"Peace is the answer" quote: GOD, 2014
Premium Member
the collapse was not where they made nuclear weapons but rather where they tested them.
 

bobhikes

Nondetermined
Premium Member
the collapse was not where they made nuclear weapons but rather where they tested them.

Yes but it was a locked down facility. You really believe that supplies weren't stored there. That certain assemblies were done on the site rather than march a full nuclear weapon across the country.
 

Stanyon

WWMRD?
Anything to not credit Trump with anything I guess.
tedium060617.gif
 

bobhikes

Nondetermined
Premium Member
The NK disaster has already been all over the news for a while now.
But the opinion that it's "the real reason" for disarmament is just that, ie, opinion.

I must of missed those New's segment's. I only found the information on the internet. Yes its only an opinion but the most probable opinion for the 180 change.
 

shunyadragon

shunyadragon
Premium Member
The NK disaster has already been all over the news for a while now.
But the opinion that it's "the real reason" for disarmament is just that, ie, opinion.

I believe China play a role in the shut down, because North Korea's Nuclear program may cause fallout in China, and in general a nuclear unstable unpredictable North Korea causes China problems.

Also, the trade embargo on North Korea for many years has devastated North Korea
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
I believe China play a role in the shut down, because North Korea's Nuclear program may cause fallout in China, and in general a nuclear unstable unpredictable North Korea causes China problems.

Also, the trade embargo on North Korea for many years has devastated North Korea
I agree that this is most likely, especially since NK could not survive economically without lotsa help from the Chinese. And my guess is that this pressure may have come with another string attached, and that is that NK and SK cannot be merged because that is something the Chinese simply would not want.

However, I simply do not trust Kim, so it is possible he might be just "playing" us.
 

BSM1

What? Me worry?
I believe China play a role in the shut down, because North Korea's Nuclear program may cause fallout in China, and in general a nuclear unstable unpredictable North Korea causes China problems.

Also, the trade embargo on North Korea for many years has devastated North Korea

Looks like finally having a president that meant what he said seemed to help biggly.
 

bobhikes

Nondetermined
Premium Member
I agree that this is most likely, especially since NK could not survive economically without lotsa help from the Chinese. And my guess is that this pressure may have come with another string attached, and that is that NK and SK cannot be merged because that is something the Chinese simply would not want.

However, I simply do not trust Kim, so it is possible he might be just "playing" us.

I agree that China had a say but I also believe that the loss to North Korea was far more the reason. The explosion was 10 times larger than an other test. This means that they for some reason decided to build a much bigger test bomb or materials they didn't mean to use exploded. I find it far more likely that this accident wreaked there nuclear program.
 

shunyadragon

shunyadragon
Premium Member
Looks like finally having a president that meant what he said seemed to help biggly.

Maybe, but the sanctions and embargo have been on for years, and the nuclear accident is recent. Kim's visits to China was likely to result in a mandate from China.
 
But the opinion that it's "the real reason" for disarmament is just that, ie, opinion.

"It's perfectly obvious to any clear thinking individual that the real reason behind events neatly aligns with my attitude towards Trump as history's greatest genius/a reckless buffoon."
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
I believe China play a role in the shut down, because North Korea's Nuclear program may cause fallout in China, and in general a nuclear unstable unpredictable North Korea causes China problems.

Also, the trade embargo on North Korea for many years has devastated North Korea
Sounds reasonable to me.
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
"It's perfectly obvious to any clear thinking individual that the real reason behind events neatly aligns with my attitude towards Trump as history's greatest genius/a reckless buffoon."
I'm not giving Trump credit yet either.
 

Sunstone

De Diablo Del Fora
Premium Member
The collapse of the mountain housing North Korea's research and testing site seems likely to me, based on reports of the paper by Tian Dongdong et al. and collaborating accounts. That would seem to me to go far in explaining Kim Jong-un's announcement that NK was giving up nuclear and ballistic missile research and testing.

However, it does not satisfactorily explain to me why Jong-un appears to be willing to give up his nuclear arsenal of 40+ weapons. Why would he invest perhaps billions into creating and manufacturing them only to give them up simply because his research and testing facility is no longer operational?

Moreover, what adversary of the US willingly gives up its nukes unilaterally in an age that the US is happy to go war or threaten war with one non-nuke nation after the other? Jong-un is surely aware of what happened to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, and what Iran and other non-nuke countries are threatened with.

So what could explain Jong-un's willingness to negotiate giving up his nukes?

For what it's worth, the New York Times has reported that senior American officials believe he wants to use his weapons as leverage for negotiating a peace with the US and South Korea. The reason he wants peace is to be able to safely cut back on his military in order to use the savings to develop his economy.

That explanation would make sense to me of his having acquired nukes and long range delivery systems in the first place -- to use them as leverage. Their use in war, after all, would only result in the US obliterating his country.
 

bobhikes

Nondetermined
Premium Member
The collapse of the mountain housing North Korea's research and testing site seems likely to me, based on reports of the paper by Tian Dongdong et al. and collaborating accounts. That would seem to me to go far in explaining Kim Jong-un's announcement that NK was giving up nuclear and ballistic missile research and testing.

However, it does not satisfactorily explain to me why Jong-un appears to be willing to give up his nuclear arsenal of 40+ weapons. Why would he invest perhaps billions into creating and manufacturing them only to give them up simply because his research and testing facility is no longer operational?

Moreover, what adversary of the US willingly gives up its nukes unilaterally in an age that the US is happy to go war or threaten war with one non-nuke nation after the other? Jong-un is surely aware of what happened to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, and what Iran and other non-nuke countries are threatened with.

So what could explain Jong-un's willingness to negotiate giving up his nukes?

For what it's worth, the New York Times has reported that senior American officials believe he wants to use his weapons as leverage for negotiating a peace with the US and South Korea. The reason he wants peace is to be able to safely cut back on his military in order to use the savings to develop his economy.

That explanation would make sense to me of his having acquired nukes and long range delivery systems in the first place -- to use them as leverage. Their use in war, after all, would only result in the US obliterating his country.

My guess is that they were stored in that mountain. The explosion was 10 times his normal test explosion. Which means they either created a bigger test bomb(unlikely to be 10 times as big) or Bombs that weren't supposed to go off went off in a chain event.
 

bobhikes

Nondetermined
Premium Member
The Tian Dongdong paper does not speak of a secondary explosion ten times the normal explosion for the site.

The posted thread quotes an explosion of 100 kilo tons 10 times an other test done by North Korea. It says nothing about a controlled explosion, this has only been mentioned as an accident.

From the article

The yield of the bomb was estimated at more than 100 kilotons of TNT, at least 10 times stronger than anything the North had tested previously.
 
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