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Taiwan Is Not About China - The American Conservative

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by sun rise, Oct 25, 2021.

  1. sun rise

    sun rise "This is the Hour of God"
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    @esmith @Twilight Hue @Shaul - note my reference. I seldom agree with what's in that outlet, but sometimes as in this case, I do.

    Taiwan Is Not About China - The American Conservative

    China and Taiwan know how to coexist, but the American defense establishment wants an enemy...

    The United States and China will not go to war over Taiwan. China is not engaging in provocative actions leading toward an invasion. So why the fuss?

    I’d prefer to let the argument speak for itself, but my background is relevant. As a U.S. diplomat, I served in Taiwan, Beijing, and Hong Kong, as well as Korea and Japan, and speak a bit of all their languages. Many of my former colleagues, who managed their careers better, now hold senior positions in the Department of State’s China and East Asian bureaucracies. I certainly don’t speak for them, but I do speak to them.
    ...
    Along the way China has always stayed pretty much the same. It’s our fear of the same China that changes.

    U.S. fears are mostly bunk. Take for example the boilerplate articles about Chinese “incursions” into Taiwan’s air space. Chinese aircraft are not flying over Taiwan. They are flying within Taiwan’s self-declared Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Look at a map of that zone, and others declared by Japan and China. Taiwan’s zone, the one Beijing is flying in, actually is large enough to cover thousands of miles of the Chinese mainland itself; PLA planes are in violation when sitting on their own runways.

    Taiwan’s zone also overlaps Beijing’s zone which overlaps Japan’s and Korea’s. Japan’s ADIZ also overlap’s Taiwan’s to take in a small island disputed between Tokyo and Taipei, a diplomatic pillow fight the U.S. ignores....
    ...
    No one seems willing to examine the reasons China has no reason to invade Taiwan. China and Taiwan do loft rhetorical bombs at each other, but all the while maintaining a robust economic relationship. Between 1991 and March 2020 Taiwan’s investment in China totaled $188.5 billion, more than China’s investment in the United States. Cross-strait trade is $149.2 billion and China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner. Pre-Covid, travelers from China made 2.68 million visits to Taiwan. China applied in September to join the new Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. A week later, with no opposition voiced by Beijing, Taiwan also applied.
    ...
    Apart from the potential of nuclear destruction—the U.S. has ten nukes for every one China does—why would China even considering risking war with the U.S.? Total Chinese investment in the U.S. economy is over $145 billion. U.S. investment in China passed $1 trillion. The Chinese are literally betting on America’s success.

    Because there is no plausible scenario in which China would want to invade Taiwan, we need not dwell on the military impracticality of the thing. A failed invasion of Taiwan would topple Xi and failure is very likely. Chinese amphibious forces would be under fire practically as they left harbor. Taiwan’s Harpoon anti-ship missiles have a range of 67 miles; at its narrowest the Strait is only 80 miles. Taiwan will soon field a land-based anti-ship missile with a range of over 200 miles.
    ...
    But the most compelling argument China plans no war is they haven’t yet fought any wars. No shots have been fired over the many disputed small islands, which have rabidly disputed for decades. Taiwan broke away in 1949 and after a handful of artillery exchanges in the 1950s, no shots have been fired. China never moved militarily against militarily vulnerable British Hong Kong from 1841 forward, or Portuguese Macau from 1557. Chinese President Xi’s rhetoric about reunification is essentially unchanged from Mao’s.

    Nothing has changed such that a stable situation has suddenly become unstable enough to lead to war,...
    ...
    The war fever splash in U.S. media comes with curious timing. The U.S. is provoking a new Cold War to ensure an enemy to struggle against, guarantee robust defense spending for decades, and to make sure there is no repeat of the “peace dividend” that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    Expensive arms development needs a target.
    ...
    Chinese weapons advances are the new missile gap, and Asia the new frontier in the faux struggle between good and evil. It’s a set up. If anyone seriously believed war was likely, even imminent, where are the calls for diplomacy, a regional summit, some kind of U.N. help, to resolve tensions?
     
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  2. Twilight Hue

    Twilight Hue Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.

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    Maybe. There are two sides to every story.

    The military drills and maneuvers are well documented and this was dated 2 weeks ago by the BBC.





    I'll say at this point is it's a very hard read and of course we will likely know in the due course of time.
     
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  3. Suave

    Suave Simulated character

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    Please let us agree to a diplomatic solution in order to resolve the ROC-PRC conflict whereby Taiwan is ceded to mainland China in 2049, this being the 100th year anniversary of the People's Republic of China's proclamation.

    Taiwan is not a Country (even if you wish really hard)

     
    #3 Suave, Oct 25, 2021
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2021
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  4. Revoltingest

    Revoltingest Abnormal before it was fashionable
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    This all seems predicated on the old MIC (Military Industrial Complex)
    Conspiracy Theory (MICCT). An alternative explanation is that opinions
    about China's scheduled intentions are indeed nefarious, ie, eventual
    takeover of Taiwan.
    Notice: I wouldn't be willing to go to war with China in order to keep
    Taiwan free. It's a cost vs benefit vs slippery slope thing.

    Somewhat related....
     
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  5. sun rise

    sun rise "This is the Hour of God"
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    That DS9 excerpt is actually well related to the OP. Quark's point applied to the price of acquisition of Taiwan means that China should be patient, gather power slowly, use software power whenever it can to get what it wants. The cost of war which the OP noted is very high. The cost of getting what it wants by other means is much less. Logically China should choose other means.
     
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  6. Revoltingest

    Revoltingest Abnormal before it was fashionable
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    China's political system is more geared towards patience than ours.
     
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  7. Lyndon

    Lyndon "Peace is the answer" quote: GOD, 2014
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    China started a war with and invaded Tibet, no matter what they claim!
     
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  8. Azrael Antilla

    Azrael Antilla Active Member

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    All power to Taiwan and their continued sovereignty. The USA and other allied nations will not permit a Chinese invasion to go unchallenged. China has already tested international patience to straining point. She violates international law with impunity and threatens stability worldwide. I would fully support military intervention in the case of Chinese aggression turned to democratic Taiwan. All democratic nations have a duty and a collective interest in thwarting expansionist ambition directed at fellow democracies by communist dictatorships.
     
  9. Ponder This

    Ponder This Well-Known Member

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    A record number of military jets violating declared airspace is a manifest military provocation suggestive of invasion. This was obviously a deliberate raising of tensions designed to send a message.

    At this point, your credentials are irrelevant. To make the statement that China hasn't yet fought any wars demonstrates ignorance. It's disqualifying. Even though it might not seem wise, it doesn't mean China won't invade, and even though it might not seem wise, it doesn't mean that the U.S. won't respond with military force.
     
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  10. Stevicus

    Stevicus Veteran Member
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    I don't see any reason China would risk going to war with Taiwan at this juncture. What we're seeing now from China may be more about China's response to Teddy Roosevelt's famous quip "Speak softly and carry a big stick." While neither side is speaking softly at this point, China wants to demonstrate that they have a big stick, too.

    So, it's really a lot of stick waving. It's not necessarily about Taiwan (although that seems to be a thorn in their side), but perhaps also about old grudges.

    If the US is pushing for a new Cold War, it may be partly about defense spending, but also as a pretext for maintaining domestic surveillance and other restrictions. The country is divided, but if public attention is diverted and focused on the "enemy" (whether real or imagined), then people might put their differences aside and come together as a nation. Soon, the media will start telling us that we've always been at war with Eastasia.
     
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  11. esmith

    esmith Veteran Member

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    All I know is that Taiwan will not peacefully submit to being forced under the rule of the PRC.
    If China forces the issue, they will eventually win out unless other countries, especially the U.S. commits militarily to Taiwan's defense.
    I disagee with the conclusion put forth by Peter Van Buren in one major area and that is that the U.S. will commit U.S. forces to the defense of Taiwan.
    The The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act does not require the U.S. to commit U.S. forces to the defense of Taiwan. As per the article it is carefully crafted ambiguity.
    If China wanted to take Taiwan they would want a US president like Biden. Before you jump on that check what Robert Gates opinion of Biden is.
     
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  12. sun rise

    sun rise "This is the Hour of God"
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    That ignores the fact about the 'airspace'. The facts in the piece are accurate and have been confirmed by many sources

     
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  13. Kooky

    Kooky Freedom from Sanity

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    America has started multiple wars in the last 25 years, and yet most of the Western democratic world is allied with them.

    The moralization of imperialistic warmongering is transparent.
     
  14. Kooky

    Kooky Freedom from Sanity

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    Only in this century did Taiwan finally get rid of the brutal, authoritarian KMT regime.
    In my opinion, its people have a right to choose democratic autonomy regardless of whether they fit some dude's definition of what a "country" is.
     
  15. Kooky

    Kooky Freedom from Sanity

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    Why would China want a known warmonger deeply indepted to the military establishment for not supporting a first day coup of right-wing militias against his presidency?
     
  16. mikkel_the_dane

    mikkel_the_dane Shadow Wolf's Aspie sibling

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    Those, who have a military and conduct drills are the enemy, except...
     
  17. mikkel_the_dane

    mikkel_the_dane Shadow Wolf's Aspie sibling

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    Because history shows that all Democratic president simply surrender and sue for peace. That is no the case of THE TRUE AMERICANS. Didn't you get the memo from your Truth account? :D
     
  18. Azrael Antilla

    Azrael Antilla Active Member

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    Sounds a little, whataboutist....
     
  19. Twilight Hue

    Twilight Hue Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.

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    I agree in principle. But once Taiwan declares its independence, some Generals with a degree of confidence are saying an invasion will be imminent.
     
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  20. esmith

    esmith Veteran Member

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    Sorry, don't understand what you are saying.....
     
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