Something doesn’t add up ...

[Vee]

I’ve been following the financial markets since 2009 (yes, my life is very exciting!) and I keep hearing about a financial recovery since circa 2010. I didn’t buy it then and don’t buy it now. Even though I’m not an expert, there are signs that anyone can see.

If we have an economic recovery, how is it that shops are closing left and right? And it’s not just because people are shopping online. They are, but one form of shopping doesn’t replace the other. People are buying less. Just today Toys r ’us filled for bankruptcy. According to this article from the Business Insider there is an epidemic of shops closing in the US - These haunting photos of the retail apocalypse reveal a new normal in America.

Last week the US achieved 20 trillion dollars in debt. If that’s the official version in reality it must be much higher. That’s around 61 800$ per person (Government Debt in the United States - Debt Clock)

The rest of the world has nothing to laugh about. Debt is everywhere. Here’s an article concerning the UK from today’s edition of the Guardian - UK debt is explosive – and it only needs a spark to light the fuse | Larry Elliott.

I hear that there are less people unemployed and depending how the numbers are cooked, it might be true, but the good paying full time jobs are disappearing and being replaced but low rate part-time jobs. Some people now need 2 or 3 jobs just to make ends meet. Let’s not even talk about student loans, auto loans and home mortgages.

Salaries are very low compared to the cost of living. Most people have very little left once they paid their basic bills, if anything at all.

Money velocity is extremely low, the dynamic yield curve is moving towards flat and the FED now has a balance sheet of 4.5 trillion that they want to unwind, nobody knows how.

Not long ago, marc Faber was saying that we have a bubble in everything (Marc 'Dr. Doom' Faber says ‘we have a bubble in everything’), Jared Dillian, Jim Rickards and a number of others have similar thoughts.

Yes, the stock markets are high. I expect them to go much higher for a while but they don’t reflect the reality of people’s lives and they are being manipulated and propped up.

But since I’m no expert, maybe I’m missing something. Maybe I’m wrong and things really are improving. Maybe the markets are not going bearish after all, who knows? I would love to be wrong about this one.

Did you feel an economic recovery where you live? Are people making more money, getting better jobs, living without much trouble the last few years in your part of the world?

 

[DavidFirth]

I’ve been following the financial markets since 2009 (yes, my life is very exciting!) and I keep hearing about a financial recovery since circa 2010. I didn’t buy it then and don’t buy it now. Even though I’m not an expert, there are signs that anyone can see.

If we have an economic recovery, how is it that shops are closing left and right? And it’s not just because people are shopping online. They are, but one form of shopping doesn’t replace the other. People are buying less. Just today Toys r ’us filled for bankruptcy. According to this article from the Business Insider there is an epidemic of shops closing in the US - These haunting photos of the retail apocalypse reveal a new normal in America.

Last week the US achieved 20 trillion dollars in debt. If that’s the official version in reality it must be much higher. That’s around 61 800$ per person (Government Debt in the United States - Debt Clock)

The rest of the world has nothing to laugh about. Debt is everywhere. Here’s an article concerning the UK from today’s edition of the Guardian - UK debt is explosive – and it only needs a spark to light the fuse | Larry Elliott.

I hear that there are less people unemployed and depending how the numbers are cooked, it might be true, but the good paying full time jobs are disappearing and being replaced but low rate part-time jobs. Some people now need 2 or 3 jobs just to make ends meet. Let’s not even talk about student loans, auto loans and home mortgages.

Salaries are very low compared to the cost of living. Most people have very little left once they paid their basic bills, if anything at all.

Money velocity is extremely low, the dynamic yield curve is moving towards flat and the FED now has a balance sheet of 4.5 trillion that they want to unwind, nobody knows how.

Not long ago, marc Faber was saying that we have a bubble in everything (Marc 'Dr. Doom' Faber says ‘we have a bubble in everything’), Jared Dillian, Jim Rickards and a number of others have similar thoughts.

Yes, the stock markets are high. I expect them to go much higher for a while but they don’t reflect the reality of people’s lives and they are being manipulated and propped up.

But since I’m no expert, maybe I’m missing something. Maybe I’m wrong and things really are improving. Maybe the markets are not going bearish after all, who knows? I would love to be wrong about this one.

Did you feel an economic recovery where you live? Are people making more money, getting better jobs, living without much trouble the last few years in your part of the world?

1. Actually, people (mainly corporate giants) are hoarding their money, which means they are investing less than they did 5 years ago. During the last economic downturn we had most people (and corporations) found that they didn't have anywhere near the cash reserve they needed to get through it.

2. The National debt is just going to keep going up and up. As long as the US can make its interest payments on the loans Congress isn't going to do anything about it, unfortunately. They're still kicking the can down the road.

3. Debt is how Americans survive. Probably Europeans, too. Nobody wants to do without and everybody wants the latest technology and decor.

4. Unemployment is slowly but surely growing in the Atlanta area, not sure about others.

5. The market is going to survive, it has to for America to survive.

Basically, people are saving their money and using low interest loans to invest and pay debts. So the economy has slowed down somewhat. But Wall Street wants everybody to think, "Now's the time to buy!" no matter what is really happening. If people aren't trading, Wall Street dies a slow death. So they say and do what is necessary to keep the trading going on.

 

[Twilight Hue]

I’ve been following the financial markets since 2009 (yes, my life is very exciting!) and I keep hearing about a financial recovery since circa 2010. I didn’t buy it then and don’t buy it now. Even though I’m not an expert, there are signs that anyone can see.

If we have an economic recovery, how is it that shops are closing left and right? And it’s not just because people are shopping online. They are, but one form of shopping doesn’t replace the other. People are buying less. Just today Toys r ’us filled for bankruptcy. According to this article from the Business Insider there is an epidemic of shops closing in the US - These haunting photos of the retail apocalypse reveal a new normal in America.

Last week the US achieved 20 trillion dollars in debt. If that’s the official version in reality it must be much higher. That’s around 61 800$ per person (Government Debt in the United States - Debt Clock)

The rest of the world has nothing to laugh about. Debt is everywhere. Here’s an article concerning the UK from today’s edition of the Guardian - UK debt is explosive – and it only needs a spark to light the fuse | Larry Elliott.

I hear that there are less people unemployed and depending how the numbers are cooked, it might be true, but the good paying full time jobs are disappearing and being replaced but low rate part-time jobs. Some people now need 2 or 3 jobs just to make ends meet. Let’s not even talk about student loans, auto loans and home mortgages.

Salaries are very low compared to the cost of living. Most people have very little left once they paid their basic bills, if anything at all.

Money velocity is extremely low, the dynamic yield curve is moving towards flat and the FED now has a balance sheet of 4.5 trillion that they want to unwind, nobody knows how.

Not long ago, marc Faber was saying that we have a bubble in everything (Marc 'Dr. Doom' Faber says ‘we have a bubble in everything’), Jared Dillian, Jim Rickards and a number of others have similar thoughts.

Yes, the stock markets are high. I expect them to go much higher for a while but they don’t reflect the reality of people’s lives and they are being manipulated and propped up.

But since I’m no expert, maybe I’m missing something. Maybe I’m wrong and things really are improving. Maybe the markets are not going bearish after all, who knows? I would love to be wrong about this one.

Did you feel an economic recovery where you live? Are people making more money, getting better jobs, living without much trouble the last few years in your part of the world?

This is conspiracy territory but there are some people saying that US gold reserves right now are almost non-existent.

 

[DavidFirth]

This is conspiracy territory but there are some people saying that US gold reserves right now are almost non-existent.

Well, there is very little doubt that the US has enough gold reserves to back all the cash they're printing.

 

[Rival]

Economic recovery seems a huge myth in my neck of the woods.

 

[Akivah]

People are buying nearly as much as they have. The methodology of those sales is changing. People are increasingly purchasing from the internet instead of in person. And as normal when technology is introduced, jobs change. I've heard similar complaints to yours when the phones were invented. All those telegraph operators and delivery people were going to disappear. However, all that happened is that people changed their resumes and learned new skills. In my area, distribution centers are going great guns, to distribute products for all the internet sales. So a job shift is underway. My area has a low unemployment rate, just 4%.

 

[Stevicus]

Did you feel an economic recovery where you live? Are people making more money, getting better jobs, living without much trouble the last few years in your part of the world?

It depends. Some people have to work 2-3 jobs just to survive, while others seem to be able to get away with working much less for more money.

I do find it interesting that, at least for the retail industry, they have grown all so dependent upon Christmas shopping season. That's what seems to make or break them.

Our local economy depends a lot on government, as the largest employers are the state university, as well as the Air Force base and a large military contractor. There's also a large Army base relatively closeby. Traditionally, our economy here in AZ depended on the three C's: Copper, Cattle, and Cotton. (Later on, they added Citrus and Climate to make it 5 C's.) Tourism is also a big industry, and with the number of retirees out here, healthcare has also grown into one of the larger employers as well.

Arizona is also a right-to-work state, so the wages and standard of living are a bit lower than the rest of the country. A lot of impoverished cities and towns here in the southwestern desert. A lot of people would see it as a constant struggle to survive, and words like "downturn" and "recovery" don't have as much meaning as they might do for others.

 

[Twilight Hue]

People are buying nearly as much as they have. The methodology of those sales is changing. People are increasingly purchasing from the internet instead of in person. And as normal when technology is introduced, jobs change. I've heard similar complaints to yours when the phones were invented. All those telegraph operators and delivery people were going to disappear. However, all that happened is that people changed their resumes and learned new skills. In my area, distribution centers are going great guns, to distribute products for all the internet sales. So a job shift is underway. My area has a low unemployment rate, just 4%.

I can see what you're driving at but unfortunately, more work progressively needs higher skill sets and that means more intensive education with those new jobs. Given our current educational situation, I still don't think the future looks all that bright if it keeps on going this way.

 

[sayak83]

I’ve been following the financial markets since 2009 (yes, my life is very exciting!) and I keep hearing about a financial recovery since circa 2010. I didn’t buy it then and don’t buy it now. Even though I’m not an expert, there are signs that anyone can see.

If we have an economic recovery, how is it that shops are closing left and right? And it’s not just because people are shopping online. They are, but one form of shopping doesn’t replace the other. People are buying less. Just today Toys r ’us filled for bankruptcy. According to this article from the Business Insider there is an epidemic of shops closing in the US - These haunting photos of the retail apocalypse reveal a new normal in America.

Last week the US achieved 20 trillion dollars in debt. If that’s the official version in reality it must be much higher. That’s around 61 800$ per person (Government Debt in the United States - Debt Clock)

The rest of the world has nothing to laugh about. Debt is everywhere. Here’s an article concerning the UK from today’s edition of the Guardian - UK debt is explosive – and it only needs a spark to light the fuse | Larry Elliott.

I hear that there are less people unemployed and depending how the numbers are cooked, it might be true, but the good paying full time jobs are disappearing and being replaced but low rate part-time jobs. Some people now need 2 or 3 jobs just to make ends meet. Let’s not even talk about student loans, auto loans and home mortgages.

Salaries are very low compared to the cost of living. Most people have very little left once they paid their basic bills, if anything at all.

Money velocity is extremely low, the dynamic yield curve is moving towards flat and the FED now has a balance sheet of 4.5 trillion that they want to unwind, nobody knows how.

Not long ago, marc Faber was saying that we have a bubble in everything (Marc 'Dr. Doom' Faber says ‘we have a bubble in everything’), Jared Dillian, Jim Rickards and a number of others have similar thoughts.

Yes, the stock markets are high. I expect them to go much higher for a while but they don’t reflect the reality of people’s lives and they are being manipulated and propped up.

But since I’m no expert, maybe I’m missing something. Maybe I’m wrong and things really are improving. Maybe the markets are not going bearish after all, who knows? I would love to be wrong about this one.

Did you feel an economic recovery where you live? Are people making more money, getting better jobs, living without much trouble the last few years in your part of the world?

Here is an informative and more optimistic article.
U.S. job growth surges in July
For us researchers, it's gloomy because Trump is consider cutting funding for research.

 

[Nakosis]

I’ve been following the financial markets since 2009 (yes, my life is very exciting!) and I keep hearing about a financial recovery since circa 2010. I didn’t buy it then and don’t buy it now. Even though I’m not an expert, there are signs that anyone can see.

If we have an economic recovery, how is it that shops are closing left and right? And it’s not just because people are shopping online. They are, but one form of shopping doesn’t replace the other. People are buying less. Just today Toys r ’us filled for bankruptcy. According to this article from the Business Insider there is an epidemic of shops closing in the US - These haunting photos of the retail apocalypse reveal a new normal in America.

Last week the US achieved 20 trillion dollars in debt. If that’s the official version in reality it must be much higher. That’s around 61 800$ per person (Government Debt in the United States - Debt Clock)

The rest of the world has nothing to laugh about. Debt is everywhere. Here’s an article concerning the UK from today’s edition of the Guardian - UK debt is explosive – and it only needs a spark to light the fuse | Larry Elliott.

I hear that there are less people unemployed and depending how the numbers are cooked, it might be true, but the good paying full time jobs are disappearing and being replaced but low rate part-time jobs. Some people now need 2 or 3 jobs just to make ends meet. Let’s not even talk about student loans, auto loans and home mortgages.

Salaries are very low compared to the cost of living. Most people have very little left once they paid their basic bills, if anything at all.

Money velocity is extremely low, the dynamic yield curve is moving towards flat and the FED now has a balance sheet of 4.5 trillion that they want to unwind, nobody knows how.

Not long ago, marc Faber was saying that we have a bubble in everything (Marc 'Dr. Doom' Faber says ‘we have a bubble in everything’), Jared Dillian, Jim Rickards and a number of others have similar thoughts.

Yes, the stock markets are high. I expect them to go much higher for a while but they don’t reflect the reality of people’s lives and they are being manipulated and propped up.

But since I’m no expert, maybe I’m missing something. Maybe I’m wrong and things really are improving. Maybe the markets are not going bearish after all, who knows? I would love to be wrong about this one.

Did you feel an economic recovery where you live? Are people making more money, getting better jobs, living without much trouble the last few years in your part of the world?

I blame the FED and the banks. The setup a system of perpetual debt. Every dollar printed the US owes interest on. How can we pay that back since the very money we use to pay back the debt cost us to use.

The FED is run by the banks, not the government. All they do is print money and collect interest.

 

[Nous]

I’ve been following the financial markets since 2009 (yes, my life is very exciting!) and I keep hearing about a financial recovery since circa 2010. I didn’t buy it then and don’t buy it now. Even though I’m not an expert, there are signs that anyone can see.

If we have an economic recovery, how is it that shops are closing left and right? And it’s not just because people are shopping online. They are, but one form of shopping doesn’t replace the other. People are buying less.

People may be spending a smaller percentage of their paychecks now than they did in 2004, but that doesn't mean that the economy is tanking, or that there hasn't been economic recovery from the Great Recession. Car sales statistics show that car sales continue to increase since 2010: Car Sales Statistics (2002-2017)

Last week the US achieved 20 trillion dollars in debt. If that’s the official version in reality it must be much higher. That’s around 61 800$ per person (Government Debt in the United States - Debt Clock)

Yes, the US debt is much higher than 20 trillion when you include the unfunded part of social security. It's mostly because of the huge wave of Baby Boomers who were working and spending and have now retired or are on disability. The US is an ageing nation. We need Mexico to send their young healthy workers who will pay for Baby Boomers comfortable retirement.

Baby Boomers and Millennials also need to lead a healthier lifestyle and stop eating so many drugs that only make people sicker. It's extremely costly to have a huge, sick population to have to take care of.

 

[beenherebeforeagain]

Well, there is very little doubt that the US has enough gold reserves to back all the cash they're printing.

US went off the Gold Standard back in the early 1970s, under Nixon. It really doesn't matter how much is in the US gold reserve...it has nothing to do with the value of the dollar anymore.

 

[Vee]

People may be spending a smaller percentage of their paychecks now than they did in 2004, but that doesn't mean that the economy is tanking, or that there hasn't been economic recovery from the Great Recession. Car sales statistics show that car sales continue to increase since 2010: Car Sales Statistics (2002-2017)

And who's paying for the cars? Do people have the money or are they borrowing from the banks? Shopping with someone else's money is easy.

Baby Boomers and Millennials also need to lead a healthier lifestyle and stop eating so many drugs that only make people sicker. It's extremely costly to have a huge, sick population to have to take care of.

I wish they would listen to you.

 

[DavidFirth]

US went off the Gold Standard back in the early 1970s, under Nixon. It really doesn't matter how much is in the US gold reserve...it has nothing to do with the value of the dollar anymore.

Doesn't it still have a residual effect, though?

 

[Nous]

And who's paying for the cars? Do people have the money or are they borrowing from the banks?

Without evidence to the contrary, I'm assuming that banks are not handing out car loans that are mostly not being paid back.

I wish they would listen to you.

Yeah, a big likelihood of that happening.

Of course, sometimes things do change.

 

[sun rise]

There is a massive change underway that is causing disruptions leading to both some indicators showing everything is fine while people are suffering. Some of the disruption is technical with online ordering growing while old style shops suffer. Some of it is in the nature of jobs available with a growing disparity between jobs requiring technical skills compared to low paying jobs while old-style manufacturing jobs which had high (UNION) pay with relatively low skill available to many. Some is due to the increasing concentration of wealth at the top while the majority increasingly having trouble squeezing by.

There are two extreme ways this could end with a lot of choices in the middle. At one extreme we have a world-wide economic collapse with uprisings in various countries due to the extreme suffering. The other extreme is a massive change to the rich-poor dichotomy forced by government. The middle to me is a bit of both.

I have no idea how this will end.

 

[Nous]

There are two extreme ways this could end with a lot of choices in the middle. At one extreme we have a world-wide economic collapse with uprisings in various countries due to the extreme suffering. The other extreme is a massive change to the rich-poor dichotomy forced by government. The middle to me is a bit of both.

I think it's difficult to prevent or prohibit people becoming "rich" (whatever that means) while maintaining to work hard, to invent, to develop, market and sell new products.

 

[Revoltingest]

I’ve been following the financial markets since 2009 (yes, my life is very exciting!) and I keep hearing about a financial recovery since circa 2010. I didn’t buy it then and don’t buy it now. Even though I’m not an expert, there are signs that anyone can see.

If we have an economic recovery, how is it that shops are closing left and right? And it’s not just because people are shopping online. They are, but one form of shopping doesn’t replace the other. People are buying less. Just today Toys r ’us filled for bankruptcy. According to this article from the Business Insider there is an epidemic of shops closing in the US - These haunting photos of the retail apocalypse reveal a new normal in America.

Last week the US achieved 20 trillion dollars in debt. If that’s the official version in reality it must be much higher. That’s around 61 800$ per person (Government Debt in the United States - Debt Clock)

The rest of the world has nothing to laugh about. Debt is everywhere. Here’s an article concerning the UK from today’s edition of the Guardian - UK debt is explosive – and it only needs a spark to light the fuse | Larry Elliott.

I hear that there are less people unemployed and depending how the numbers are cooked, it might be true, but the good paying full time jobs are disappearing and being replaced but low rate part-time jobs. Some people now need 2 or 3 jobs just to make ends meet. Let’s not even talk about student loans, auto loans and home mortgages.

Salaries are very low compared to the cost of living. Most people have very little left once they paid their basic bills, if anything at all.

Money velocity is extremely low, the dynamic yield curve is moving towards flat and the FED now has a balance sheet of 4.5 trillion that they want to unwind, nobody knows how.

Not long ago, marc Faber was saying that we have a bubble in everything (Marc 'Dr. Doom' Faber says ‘we have a bubble in everything’), Jared Dillian, Jim Rickards and a number of others have similar thoughts.

Yes, the stock markets are high. I expect them to go much higher for a while but they don’t reflect the reality of people’s lives and they are being manipulated and propped up.

But since I’m no expert, maybe I’m missing something. Maybe I’m wrong and things really are improving. Maybe the markets are not going bearish after all, who knows? I would love to be wrong about this one.

Did you feel an economic recovery where you live? Are people making more money, getting better jobs, living without much trouble the last few years in your part of the world?

Some observations.....
1) Lending is much more available now.
2) Brick & mortar stores (eg, Toys R Us) are suffering because buyers are using the internet more.
3) Where I live, commercial rents & occupancy rates are up.

#2 explains many store closures. It's also resulted in many big box stores halting expansion
(except for on line), eg, Home Depot. So even during a recovery, some will lose.

 

[Vee]

Without evidence to the contrary, I'm assuming that banks are not handing out car loans that are mostly not being paid back.

A serious, responsible person would think so, but the last time we were in the spot we are right now the banks did loan money to anyone regardless of their financial situation.
And then things started going wrong and they went to the government, claimed to be too big to fail and got themselves bailouts to be paid with fiat currency the Fed made up in their computers. The entire world is still paying that bill, while the banksters gave themselves big bonuses and a pat on the back.
Those banks that were "too big to fail" in 2008 are much, much bigger today.

 

[Nous]

A serious, responsible person would think so, but the last time we were in the spot we are right now the banks did loan money to anyone regardless of their financial situation.
And then things started going wrong and they went to the government, claimed to be too big to fail and got themselves bailouts to be paid with fiat currency the Fed made up in their computers. The entire world is still paying that bill, while the banksters gave themselves big bonuses and a pat on the back.
Those banks that were "too big to fail" in 2008 are much, much bigger today.

You are quite right on all counts here. However, I really don't think that's going to happen again.

BTW, that reminds me of the excellent Frontline episode on the Abacus Bank prosecution, which was shown last week: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail I highly recommend it.

The producers/narrators make no bones about the travesty of the "too-big-to-fail" fiasco, the bail out, and the decision to not prosecute. The decision to not prosecute was made on the basis of the fear of what might the economic fallout of ruining our economic foundations.