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Should we believe the experts or the politicians regarding climate change?

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Notanumber, Aug 18, 2019.

  1. Pete in Panama

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    From the link:
    We can agree that people say the temp's gone up 0.9C. So far nobody on this thread has posted either a "planet's average surface temperature" for this week, nor that of 1890. If this were a scientific discussion then a measured temp. increase would simply be the difference in measured temps. It's not. This is a political/religions feud where scientific reasoning is unwelcome.
     
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  2. ratiocinator

    ratiocinator Strange Loop

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    Theoretical models is what science does, in fact the very purpose of science is to produce theoretical models. Ones that match reality (observations and the results of experiments). Newtonian mechanics, quantum mechanics, and relativity are all theoretical models.

    The "real evidence" is the match between the models and reality.

    Just like any models in science, climate models are produced, tested against observations, and modified if necessary. They are also applied to past situations to see if they correctly model what has happened in the past.

    The climate is an extremely complex system and so are the models. What exactly do you want? All the equations? The source code perhaps? Maybe you think you'll spot an error? That's kind of what peer review is for - do you regard yourself as qualified?

    There's plenty of popularised stuff if you want to look for it, but, as with all pop-science, it can only give an indication of what's involved.

    There's quite a lot of information on models and evaluation here: Climate Models and Their Evaluation (edited to correct link).
     
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  3. ratiocinator

    ratiocinator Strange Loop

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    Global temperature record
     
  4. Guitar's Cry

    Guitar's Cry Verisimilitudinous

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    Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
     
  5. PureX

    PureX Veteran Member

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    I don't see what you're trying to imply.
     
  6. Flankerl

    Flankerl Well-Known Member

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    What a fantastic bare minimum.

    Who cares if 99% of all people die and with them most other lifeforms.

    Some will survive.


    #goteamcoal
    #greatdyingreduxelectronicboogaloo
     
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  7. Saint Frankenstein

    Saint Frankenstein ᛘᛁᛏᚾᛁᚴᚼᛏ᛫ᛋᚢᚾ
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    Why would you believe a politician in the first place? :rolleyes: Of course you go with what the scientific consensus on the subject is.
     
  8. Subduction Zone

    Subduction Zone Veteran Member

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    Wrong on several points. First we have observed man releasing carbon to the atmosphere that has not been there before. You should have asked how we know thus. Second they have measured global temperature increases in more than one way. Again, if you do not know you should be asking how. And it is relatively simple to measure the average temperature of the surface of the Sun. It takes a bit of work to measure the Earth's average temperature.
     
  9. Subduction Zone

    Subduction Zone Veteran Member

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    They have explained their modeling. But if one wants to get into the specifics then one has to learn the science. For example, I hope you know that there is no doubt at all about the Greenhouse Effect. Understanding that is a first step in understanding AGW.
     
  10. We Never Know

    We Never Know Well-Known Member

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    I believe this is about indoor work plsces.

    Exposure to carbon dioxide can produce a variety of health effects. These may include headaches, dizziness, restlessness, a tingling or pins or needles feeling, difficulty breathing, sweating, tiredness, and increased heart rate.

    Carbon dioxide levels and potential health problems are indicated below:

    250-350 ppm: background (normal) outdoor air level

    350-1,000 ppm: typical level found in occupied spaces with good air exchange

    1,000-2,000 ppm: level associated with complaints of drowsiness and poor air

    2,000-5,000 ppm: level associated with headaches, sleepiness, and stagnant, stale, stuffy air; poor concentration, loss of attention, increased heart rate and slight nausea may also be present.

    >5,000 ppm: This indicates unusual air conditions where high levels of other gases also could be present. Toxicity or oxygen deprivation could occur. This is the permissible exposure limit for daily workplace exposures.

    >40,000 ppm: This level is immediately harmful due to oxygen deprivation.

    Carbon Dioxide Detection and Indoor Air Quality Control -- Occupational Health & Safety
     
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  11. We Never Know

    We Never Know Well-Known Member

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    We are just another animal species here on this rock. We are also the most destructive and wasteful. Does that makes us special?
     
  12. We Never Know

    We Never Know Well-Known Member

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    Not implying anything.

    "How many experts work for an agency that is funded by, ran by, or over seen by the government/politicians"

    One could imply that the politicians and experts get paid by the same place.
     
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  13. Pete in Panama

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    [from the wiki link]
    [​IMG]

    We started w/ a corruption of word "science" that moved us from the idea of reasoned observable inquiry over to an ideology of a political mob. What we're getting into now is a further distortion of the language intended in an Orwellian bent to push a political ideology. Wikipedia does not show global average surface temperature readings. The Y-axis only shows a calculated "temperature anomaly" --something that can end up being anything we want.

    The measured surface temperature of the sun is reported thus: "The temperature of the Sun's surface is 5,778 K (5,505 °C)." There's no need for evasion using an "anomaly" calculation for the sun's surface because there's no political controversy involved.

    Nobody wants to say what today's average earth surface temperature is because the measurement would either have to be made accurately and in good faith or it be obviously silly. Even more so for a global average surface temp for 1890. This is why ideological advocates turn to "anomalies", it's the only path that can be used so as to appear in support of the 0.9C increase.
     
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  14. Pete in Panama

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    So where does that leave us, that we simply have no idea what the Earth's average temperature is? If that's so then we can't say it's up or down.
     
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  15. Pete in Panama

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    If we don't have a clue what the temp is then we can't say it's up or down.
     
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  16. Subduction Zone

    Subduction Zone Veteran Member

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    Yes, it is a good thing that is not the case. Now deniers may have no clue, but who cares what they say?
     
  17. Subduction Zone

    Subduction Zone Veteran Member

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    Oh drat. I thought that you were talking about others. You don't have a clue about temperature. That is not the case in the world of science.
     
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  18. PruePhillip

    PruePhillip Well-Known Member

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    It's like all science, all reality in fact - everything is complicated.
    Captain Cook arrived in Australia during a drought. We still have droughts, the climate skeptics
    remind us - but now we have more frequent droughts, longer droughts and hotter droughts.

    Peak temperatures, on average, are rising a little. But the bottom temperatures (ie winter,
    early mornings) are substantially warmer. Seasons are shifting, glaciers are vanishing, polar
    ice is getting thinner etc.. No old timer saw this - not in human history.
     
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  19. PruePhillip

    PruePhillip Well-Known Member

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    During the black death in Europe, about half the population perished. Farms and towns
    vanished, the forests returned. As a result the CO2 level in the atmosphere dropped and
    then we had the "little ice age."
    We can control the earth's temperature just be adjusting the CO2. As of today that CO2
    is not only dangerously high for temperature control, but super dangerous for our marine
    life.
     
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  20. Guitar's Cry

    Guitar's Cry Verisimilitudinous

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    Not sure where I said what you quoted me saying...
     
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