Russia losing the war.

[TagliatelliMonster]

He is indeed losing, but he hasn't lost yet.
There's the risk of his going off the deep end.
You know....chemical, biological, & nuclear war.
Russia needs a coup to end this war.

Chemical and biological (in ukraine): maybe.
Nuclear? I don't believe that.

Putin is not the only person to decide on this. He is not the person that actually pushes the buttons. Between him deciding so and the missiles actually firing, there's lots of other people. It's a chain.

I'm not buying for a second that this chain of command will hold.
And I also don't buy for a second that Putin will actually give such an order.

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

I believe Putin is finished he is not just losing the war...but he has gone mental and become crazy.

It's complex.

Here's the thing............

Considering what the original plan was, that surely failed. In that sense: yes, they are losing.
Considering how MANY losses they have already taken and the humiliating amount of generals killed... In that sense: yes, they are losing.

However, even with all those humiliating losses and even with that heroic ukrainian stance.... they still have overwhelming forces as compared to ukraine. Even if Ukrainians are killing 10 russians for every single ukranian killed, Russia still maintains superior numbers and firepower.

So the battle, ukrainians can not "win" imo.

The war though.... the war will not be won by Russia.

Russia succeeded in creating a situation where they lose no matter what.
Even if they win, they still lose.


They attacked ukraine to prevent them from joining nato.
By doing so, they only made sure sweden and finland will join. And eventually ukraine also (if they survive this sufficiently well enough as a country).

Before the war, Nato would have gained 1 additional member in the long run.
Due to the war, Nato will gain 2 additional members in record time.

The west is going to accelerate their plans to stop importing oil, coal and gas and push harder towards green energy (with likely a stop underway by purchasing gas etc elsewhere). What used to be a 50-year plan is now a 10-year plan, while moving away from russian energy an "ASAP" plan.

Now, Russia can go try and sell their fossil fuels to china and india at heavily reduced prices. So whatever happens, their income deteriorates.

There is simply no scenario here, not a single one, where Russia doesn't come out of this extremely weakened.

Regardless of what happens in Ukraine, Moldova or whatever other country they are thinking of... There is one mega certainty: Russia will come weaker out of it. Regardless of how it moves forward from here on: Russia is always at the losing end in the long run.

They thought they could "sell" this as "liberation" in ukraine. They really believed Ukrainians wouldn't mind that much to come under russian control and even thought many would love it.
Instead, they made sure that ukranians now harbor a very very deep rooted hatred for russians. One that will last multiple generations.

Their "Z" symbol is now on par with the swastika.


So yeah.... whatever happens: Russia has already lost.

 

[sayak83]

It's complex.

Here's the thing............

Considering what the original plan was, that surely failed. In that sense: yes, they are losing.
Considering how MANY losses they have already taken and the humiliating amount of generals killed... In that sense: yes, they are losing.

However, even with all those humiliating losses and even with that heroic ukrainian stance.... they still have overwhelming forces as compared to ukraine. Even if Ukrainians are killing 10 russians for every single ukranian killed, Russia still maintains superior numbers and firepower.

So the battle, ukrainians can not "win" imo.

The war though.... the war will not be won by Russia.

Russia succeeded in creating a situation where they lose no matter what.
Even if they win, they still lose.


They attacked ukraine to prevent them from joining nato.
By doing so, they only made sure sweden and finland will join. And eventually ukraine also (if they survive this sufficiently well enough as a country).

Before the war, Nato would have gained 1 additional member in the long run.
Due to the war, Nato will gain 2 additional members in record time.

The west is going to accelerate their plans to stop importing oil, coal and gas and push harder towards green energy (with likely a stop underway by purchasing gas etc elsewhere). What used to be a 50-year plan is now a 10-year plan, while moving away from russian energy an "ASAP" plan.

Now, Russia can go try and sell their fossil fuels to china and india at heavily reduced prices. So whatever happens, their income deteriorates.

There is simply no scenario here, not a single one, where Russia doesn't come out of this extremely weakened.

Regardless of what happens in Ukraine, Moldova or whatever other country they are thinking of... There is one mega certainty: Russia will come weaker out of it. Regardless of how it moves forward from here on: Russia is always at the losing end in the long run.

They thought they could "sell" this as "liberation" in ukraine. They really believed Ukrainians wouldn't mind that much to come under russian control and even thought many would love it.
Instead, they made sure that ukranians now harbor a very very deep rooted hatred for russians. One that will last multiple generations.

Their "Z" symbol is now on par with the swastika.


So yeah.... whatever happens: Russia has already lost.

Unless Trumps gets re-elected and decides to ditch NATO and get in league with Russia. It will not be difficult for Trump acolytes to paint Putin as a fellow Christian conservation fighting against a liberal atheist Europe to bring conservative values back into Ukraine.

 

[Revoltingest]

Chemical and biological (in ukraine): maybe.
Nuclear? I don't believe that.

Putin is not the only person to decide on this. He is not the person that actually pushes the buttons. Between him deciding so and the missiles actually firing, there's lots of other people. It's a chain.

I'm not buying for a second that this chain of command will hold.
And I also don't buy for a second that Putin will actually give such an order.

I hope you're right.
But I lack your confidence.

There's been much speculation that Putin has Parkinson's
disease. Ever known anyone with it? Mental capabilities
go downhill with hallucinations, delusions, & psychosis.
(Nasty disease. A couple friends of mine died from it.)

Consider also that people around Putin regularly turn up
dead if they cross him. Those who might normally restrain
his deadly urges could fear for their lives...& not be so
eager to stop him from unleashing nuclear WW3.
It's a situation with several risk factors, eh.

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

Unless Trumps gets re-elected and decides to ditch NATO and get in league with Russia. It will not be difficult for Trump acolytes to paint Putin as a fellow Christian conservation fighting against a liberal atheist Europe to bring conservative values back into Ukraine.

It certainly would be interesting to see how such would play out.
Although I'ld prefer not to find out.

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

I hope you're right.
But I lack your confidence.

There's been much speculation that Putin has Parkinson's
disease. Ever known anyone with it? Mental capabilities
go downhill with hallucinations, delusions, & psychosis.
(Nasty disease. A couple friends of mine died from it.)

Consider also that people around Putin regularly turn up
dead if they cross him. Those who might normally restrain
his deadly urges could fear for their lives...& not be so
eager to stop him from unleashing nuclear WW3.
It's a situation with several risk factors, eh.

Yes, I'm aware of that.

However.... There's a difference between being to afraid to stand up to him when he orders some shelling on insignificant towns (in the large scheme of things...) in a neighboring country, while knowing no third party countries would return fire on the one hand,... and on the other being ordered to do a WMD strike of which it is a CERTAINTY that not just one but several other countries would return fire with untold destruction and likely WW3 as a result.

I think fear of the wrath of the world would win over fear of the wrath of one delusional man who's days are numbered anyway (and most certainly when he goes down that route).

When it comes to being nuts enough to actually carry out nuclear WMD strikes, North Korea worries me a lot more then Russia.

 

[Revoltingest]

Yes, I'm aware of that.

However.... There's a difference between being to afraid to stand up to him when he orders some shelling on insignificant towns (in the large scheme of things...) in a neighboring country, while knowing no third party countries would return fire on the one hand,... and on the other being ordered to do a WMD strike of which it is a CERTAINTY that not just one but several other countries would return fire with untold destruction and likely WW3 as a result.

I think fear of the wrath of the world would win over fear of the wrath of one delusional man who's days are numbered anyway (and most certainly when he goes down that route).

When it comes to being nuts enough to actually carry out nuclear WMD strikes, North Korea worries me a lot more then Russia.

I favor taking our chances by preventing Putin from
conquering his neighbors. There are risks either way,
but this is my preference.