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Russia losing the war.

fantome profane

Anti-Woke = Anti-Justice
Premium Member
There is no question Putin lost this war before he even began it. He has done nothing but harm to the Russian people and to himself. His standing in the world and in his own nation has been significantly diminished.

The only question is how many more innocent people he will murder until he stops, or is stopped.
 

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
I believe Putin is finished he is not just losing the war...but he has gone mental and become crazy.
The war has just stalled. I suspect Putin is being a strategist atm.

I'm not under the impression he's actually losing only because he hasn't utilized advanced weaponry from what I can tell.

I haven't heard of T72b3 or the T-14 in the theater at present, or any SU27s being deployed.

He might be feigning weakness , which is a common tactic to draw out a sense of complacency of which he can use at his advantage when he ramps things up incrementally.

Never underestimate things as a win at this point.

It's far from over I fear and I feel it's only in the beginning stages.
 

Yazata

Active Member
Russia losing the war.

I don't think that they are losing exactly, but they aren't winning in the way they thought they would.

They expected an almost bloodless victory, blitzkrieg into Kyiv in maybe two days, install a new Ukrainian government and then a couple of weeks for occupation and mop up. They thought that large portions of the Ukrainian population would welcome them.

And they hoped that the lightning victory would show off the prowess of the new Russian army and astound the world, much like the US victory in the 1990 Gulf War did.

What they got was vastly more resistance than they anticipated as the Ukrainian military performed far better than expected and even Russian-speaking Ukrainians opposed their invasion. They seem to have been welcomed nowhere.

And the Russian military was exposed as far less effective than expected.

Its logistics have been terrible. Coordination between ground forces and ground support aircraft has been poor. The initial Russian attack failed to fully suppress Ukrainian air defenses or win complete control of the skies. And the largest Russian combat operations observed have been on the company or battalion scale, which suggests command and control problems.

And notably, we see the impressive success of anti-tank-guided-missiles, including the US Javelins and British nlaws, at picking off exposed vehicle convoys on the roads. Much of the credit for that goes to the Ukrainians themselves who have been using them very creatively and effectively.

Another notable feature is the impressive success of reconaissance and attack drones.

All in all, war colleges around the world will be studying this war for years to come.

But... Russia still has far more resources and reserves than Ukraine. They can (and do seem to be) transitioning to a protracted war of attrition in which they wear down their Ukrainian adversaries and deplete them. The idea then would be to keep pounding until the Ukrainians tire out and weaken and Russia can resume its advance.

I believe Putin is finished

His position is clearly weakened. There are rumors of finger pointing between the Ministry of Defense and the FSB (spy agency) over who got the planning so wrong. The Western media is reporting that the director of the FSB's Fifth Department (the foreign intelligence branch) supposedly has been placed under house arrest.

A coup starts to seem possible, but still looks unlikely at this point.

he is not just losing the war...but he has gone mental and become crazy.

I don't really believe that. He is under a lot of stress right now though.
 
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fantome profane

Anti-Woke = Anti-Justice
Premium Member
I'm not under the impression he's actually losing only because he hasn't utilized advanced weaponry from what I can tell.
And what will this “more advanced weaponry” accomplish? Knocking down more buildings? Is that going to win the war for Putin?
 

Yazata

Active Member
Today (Friday March 25) the Russian General Staff has announced what appears to be a change of strategy in the Ukraine war.

It's still unclear precisely what this means.

Sergei Rudskoi, the Head of the General Staff Main Operational Directorate said in a briefing,

"The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished. The combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced, which, I emphasize once again, makes it possible to focus on the main efforts to achieve the main goal, liberation of Donbas."

He said that 93% of the Luhansk oblast have been "liberated" and 54% of the Donetsk oblast. That's apparently where Russia will now direct its efforts.

"We did not plan to storm them [major Ukranian cities] initially in order to avoid destruction and minimize losses among personnel and civilians," Rudskoi said at the briefing. "Although we're not ruling out such a possibility, our forces and equipment will focus on the most important thing, the complete liberation of Donbas...

"There were two options. The first one was to limit the actions only to the territory of the DPR and the LPR within the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which is stated in the republics' constitutions. But then we would have been faced with constant replenishment by the Ukrainian authorities of the group involved in the so-called joint forces operation," Rudskoi told the briefing on Friday.

"Therefore, the second option was chosen, which envisages actions on the entire territory of Ukraine, with events for its demilitarization and denazification," he said.

"The demilitarization of Ukraine is being achieved both with precision strikes on military infrastructure, military bases, aerodromes, command posts, arsenals and military depots, and with troops crushing the opposing enemy groups," he said.

"Unfortunately, during the special military operation there have been losses among our combat comrades: 1,351 servicemen are dead and 3,825 injured," Sergei Rudskoi said on Friday.

From the Russian Interfax news agency

Main objectives of first stage of special operation in Ukraine generally accomplished - Russian General Staff
 
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Mock Turtle

Oh my, did I say that!
Premium Member
I once predicted Ukraine's defeat.
I hereby retract that prediction.
I must admit to being surprised at how badly the Russian forces seem to be doing, but not surprised as to their vicious bombing of civilian targets. So much easier to do, and not a good reflection on their morality, even if such hardly bothers them. It will though when the bulk of Russians discover such - if they ever do. After all, these Ukrainians were once seen as brothers and sisters.
 

Guitar's Cry

Disciple of Pan
The war has just stalled. I suspect Putin is being a strategist atm.

I'm not under the impression he's actually losing only because he hasn't utilized advanced weaponry from what I can tell.

I haven't heard of T72b3 or the T-14 in the theater at present, or any SU27s being deployed.

He might be feigning weakness , which is a common tactic to draw out a sense of complacency of which he can use at his advantage when he ramps things up incrementally.

Never underestimate things as a win at this point.

It's far from over I fear and I feel it's only in the beginning stages.

Given how many Russians have been lost, Putin would be playing a pretty bad game right now. I am guessing all their saber rattling has been done with rusty sabers.
 

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
Given how many Russians have been lost, Putin would be playing a pretty bad game right now. I am guessing all their saber rattling has been done with rusty sabers.
Hopefully that is the case. It's a hard read being the war is still in the early stages.

Russians are noted to attack en masse
throwing everything they got at once. This is certainly not reminiscent of the old USSR.

A stalled Russia is arguably good news for the Ukraine all the same.
 

Martin

Spam, wonderful spam (bloody vikings!)
Putin is a monumental twat. Hopefully he'll be got rid of in due course.
 
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