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Probability

Discussion in 'Games / Pics / Jokes / Stories' started by Revoltingest, Oct 25, 2020.

  1. Revoltingest

    Revoltingest I have the kavorka
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    Every week I enter Menards's contest to win a $1000 shopping spree.
    Every week I fail to win. ("Lose" is too negative a word for me.)
    Every week there are 2 possible outcomes:
    Win
    Not win
    Every week for the last year or so I have a 50% chance of winning.
    The odds against my not-win record are 2^52 to 1.
    Clearly, there is a conspiracy against me.

    I bet @Polymath257 has some rip'n good yarns about probability.
     
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  2. joe1776

    joe1776 Well-Known Member

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    Isn't it obvious by now that the odds are against you because you're a loser?:cool:
     
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  3. Vinayaka

    Vinayaka devotee
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    I had a logic (aspect of philosophy) prof who once used the same argument as to how he could win at the races. I suspected he believed himself, so I shut up, as I wanted to pass the course. There was an outside chance he was waiting for somebody to have the guts to demonstrate how wrong he was, but I wasn't about to chance that. I didn't place that bet, and as luck would have it, the coin landed on heads, and I passed the course. If it woulda landed on tails I woulda flunked.
     
  4. joe1776

    joe1776 Well-Known Member

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    The odds are against winning at the race track. I broke even yesterday. It was a good thing too because I needed the money.
     
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  5. Altfish

    Altfish Veteran Member

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    Maths wasn't your strong subject at school:rolleyes:
     
  6. Revoltingest

    Revoltingest I have the kavorka
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    We have "math"....no superfluous pretentious extra "s".
     
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  7. Altfish

    Altfish Veteran Member

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    Ha!
    That's where you got it wrong.
    We do sums and gozinters and the like
     
  8. joe1776

    joe1776 Well-Known Member

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    So, you didn't complete the course?
     
  9. Revoltingest

    Revoltingest I have the kavorka
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    We even do division....
     
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  10. Revoltingest

    Revoltingest I have the kavorka
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    Completed, & even got me an "E" (for excellent).
     
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  11. Ponder This

    Ponder This Well-Known Member

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    You can turn yourself into a better winner if you enter each week but flip a coin on the side: Heads means you guess that you win and tails means you guess that you don't win. Your odds on the coin flip will let you guess correctly on the outcome 50% of the time. You should see rapid results and hopefully a major boost to your self-esteem (this part is in no way guaranteed)! Flip at your own risk!
     
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  12. Altfish

    Altfish Veteran Member

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    We were taught 4 gozinter 8 two times
     
  13. Revoltingest

    Revoltingest I have the kavorka
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    In Revoltistan, we call'm "guzintaz".
     
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  14. joe1776

    joe1776 Well-Known Member

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    That makes sense. But if he just keeps playing every week his chances will improve because the law of averages will catch up.
     
  15. stvdv

    stvdv Veteran Member

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    Lottery is more like:
    1) You lose
    2) They win
     
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  16. KAT-KAT

    KAT-KAT Well-Known Member

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    I got to thinking about something.

    I know, it's always a disaster when that happens, but...

    The lottery is capitalism and socialism. Capitalism because a lot of your money goes to the state or whomever is in charge of the lottery. Socialism because the winner of the lottery gets a portion of your money and it's kind of like you're also handing some of it over to them too.
     
  17. bobhikes

    bobhikes AntiRepublican
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    Clearly, and it will continue.
     
  18. stvdv

    stvdv Veteran Member

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    When I was 23 I lived in 1 house with 2 other students, every week we did a kind of supermarket lottery (buying all items with specific prices). We were all 3 very good at math, and all 3 always filled in perfect. Those 2 won every time, I won never. After 1 year I decided to never do lottery again

    This was a free "lottery", so never losing, but still .. never winning, while the other 2 won constantly:rolleyes:

    So. I got the message loud and clear "thou shalt not gamble to win":D

    Note: Once there was a woman in great distress, and I and a friend helped her out. The friend always bought a lottery ticket and asked me "you also buy one?". I got a clear feeling "God must be pleased I helped this woman, I think He will let me win the lottery today". Lo and behold, I won. But after that I decided to not do lottery again, and keep the good feeling of winning:D
     
  19. Revoltingest

    Revoltingest I have the kavorka
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    Hmmm....God must be sabotaging my lottery efforts.
     
  20. stvdv

    stvdv Veteran Member

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    Maybe we both exhausted our good karma surplus; and we shouldn't blame God:D
     
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