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Probability vs possibility?

bobhikes

Nondetermined
Premium Member
Can't find an actual mathematical formula to figure this out.

I currently play the Cash 5 lottery best odds 1/137 of getting 3 out of 5
I play 2 tickets a day.

It occurred to me I might be playing wrong. Instead of playing 2 ticket everyday with the same odds I should play all 14 tickets in one days drawing getting better odds on that day.

Playing 2 tickets everyday I have 2/137 odds of winning every day.
Playing 14 tickets in one day I have 14/137 odds one day and 0 odds 6 days.

Is there a formula for proving which one is better. Are they really even.

Here's my thought experiment. Will I more likely win playing a daily 100 number game playing 10 numbers one day or 1 number 10 days. Then increase it 20 numbers one day to 1 number 20 days. Then increase it to 50 numbers 1 day or 1 number 50 days. Last I will definitely win buying 100 numbers in one day(but probably not cover the cost), but will I really win buying 1 number 100 days.

I would really like a formula because It probably takes into consideration cost ratio but would also be interested in others opinions. For my part I have been playing 2 tickets everyday for more than 2 years and have not won more than 30 dollars at one time and never more than 100 in a year. I am changing to buying them all on one day per week and seeing the result but wondering should I buy all on one day a month instead and a formula would really help.
 

Kuzcotopia

If you can read this, you are as lucky as I am.
Can't find an actual mathematical formula to figure this out.

I currently play the Cash 5 lottery best odds 1/137 of getting 3 out of 5
I play 2 tickets a day.

It occurred to me I might be playing wrong. Instead of playing 2 ticket everyday with the same odds I should play all 14 tickets in one days drawing getting better odds on that day.

Playing 2 tickets everyday I have 2/137 odds of winning every day.
Playing 14 tickets in one day I have 14/137 odds one day and 0 odds 6 days.

Is there a formula for proving which one is better. Are they really even.

Here's my thought experiment. Will I more likely win playing a daily 100 number game playing 10 numbers one day or 1 number 10 days. Then increase it 20 numbers one day to 1 number 20 days. Then increase it to 50 numbers 1 day or 1 number 50 days. Last I will definitely win buying 100 numbers in one day(but probably not cover the cost), but will I really win buying 1 number 100 days.

I would really like a formula because It probably takes into consideration cost ratio but would also be interested in others opinions. For my part I have been playing 2 tickets everyday for more than 2 years and have not won more than 30 dollars at one time and never more than 100 in a year. I am changing to buying them all on one day per week and seeing the result but wondering should I buy all on one day a month instead and a formula would really help.

Be more specific about the costs of each ticket, and the potential payouts for number matching.

I do have a formula for you to help you make an informed choice about the lottery, but I need that info first to show you how it works.
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
Not to be indelicate or judgmental, but do you know that the lottery is known as the "stupid tax"?
If you're playing it for fun & excitement, then just ignore my question.
 

bobhikes

Nondetermined
Premium Member
Be more specific about the costs of each ticket, and the potential payouts for number matching.

I do have a formula for you to help you make an informed choice about the lottery, but I need that info first to show you how it works.

The Cash 5 the odds are 962598/1 for the maximum prize 75000 -1.4 million dollars 5/5 numbers
5006/1 for the middle prize 750 to 1500 dollars 4/5 numbers
137/1 for the minimum prize 14-19 dollars 3/5 numbers

Each ticket costs 1 dollar for 1 set of 5 numbers.

Thank you for any information
 

bobhikes

Nondetermined
Premium Member
Not to be indelicate or judgmental, but do you know that the lottery is known as the "stupid tax"?
If you're playing it for fun & excitement, then just ignore my question.

In NJ the money goes to the school system and I have 2 kids in school so I'm fine with supporting them. It also within my budget I waste more than 2 dollars a day on other frivolous stuff anyway.This gives me a chance to make improvements to my and my families current life if lighting strikes and you never know.
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
In NJ the money goes to the school system and I have 2 kids in school so I'm fine with supporting them. It also within my budget I waste more than 2 dollars a day on other frivolous stuff anyway.This gives me a chance to make improvements to my and my families current life if lighting strikes and you never know.
Enlightened!
 

Aupmanyav

Be your own guru
I do not know the system there. I do not think you can increase the odds other than by buying 'ALL' tickets. Probability is a very dicey thing. But keep on, perhaps, some day, the lightening will strike. If you are a theist, I presume you say a prayer before buying the ticket. That is the best you can do.
 
Is there a formula for proving which one is better. Are they really even.

Here's my thought experiment. Will I more likely win playing a daily 100 number game playing 10 numbers one day or 1 number 10 days. Then increase it 20 numbers one day to 1 number 20 days. Then increase it to 50 numbers 1 day or 1 number 50 days. Last I will definitely win buying 100 numbers in one day(but probably not cover the cost), but will I really win buying 1 number 100 days.


Remember though that buying all 100 tickets gives you a 100% chance to win 1 prize but a 0% chance of winning 2 prizes. Buying tickets in separate draws gives you the potential to win multiple times which needs to be factored in to your 'value' equation.

In a lottery you can still win multiple minor prizes but not multiple jackpots if you buy all your tickets in 1 draw.

You should really be looking at expected returns rather than raw odds. You can get better value for your purchases by saving your money for weeks with higher jackpots (assuming the jackpot rolls over if not won).

If the odds are 1 in 10 million it is better to have a 1 in 10 million chance of winning $50 million than a 1 in 10 million chance of winning $5 million. Of course higher jackpots invite more players therefore you are more likely to have to share jackpots.

There must also be numbers that are played more than other numbers (if you can choose which numbers to play). Low numbers are more likely to be played as they are birthday dates which people often choose. Also 'lucky' numbers like 7 and 4 will be more common probably. You should avoid these as they will lead to shared jackpots.

Formulas for expected returns would be pretty complex though as lots of variables.

Given the odds of winning though in relation to 'expected returns', it makes almost no difference what you actually do. Just play each week and you maximise the 'fun' you get from your purchases (or buy all in 1 week and minimise the time 'wasted' checking results).
 

Aupmanyav

Be your own guru
One thing I can say that if you buy one ticket, no one has a better chance of winning than you even if they buy a thousand tickets. That is how probability works.
 
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