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Probability of nature coming up with Beethoven's 'Fate' by chance?
- Thread starter atanu
- Start date
Near enough to zero percent to be zero percent.
Subduction Zone
Veteran Member
You do realize that using strawman arguments is not the most honest way to debate don't you? Only ignorant creationists make the error of calling evolution "random".
Frater Sisyphus
Contradiction, irrationality and disorder
If it's gonna be Beetsy, why Sym. no 5.............why not the Grosso Fugue? his masterpiece
Statistical calculations show that I was personally designed and created by a god. Makes me feel very special. The Odds Of You Being Alive Are Incredibly Small
Jumi
Well-Known Member
This. Something that has already happened is always 100%, no matter how unlikely we might find it.
BSM1
What? Me worry?
Not to mention his Ninth...probably the best piece of classical music ever written.
100%
That's factually self deluding I am no golden calf and god ain't your Persian house kitty. Hell I might as well start singing "how great I am how great I am, and Carl nietztche myself into the loony bin all at the same time listening to religion. Then again Friedrich nietztche is the apple that didn't even fall off the nut tree.
The probability is 100%.
This might sound facetious, bit it isn't.
If you flip a coin 10 times, & it comes up heads 10 times, this also
has a 100% probability of occurring. This is because looking at
historical events is to examine results. Predicting the probability
of this happening in the future requires more info, eg, how many
trials are allowed? What constitutes a trial, eg, attempts of only
10 flips, or a continuous sequence with a moving 10 flip window?
Now, let's consider the probability of a symphony which hasn't been
written yet. To calculate it, we need to know.....
- The number of trials is determined by the number of composers over
mankind's history & future.
- The probability of each composer to write that type of music.
- The number of possible symphonies which meet the criterion of being
Beethoven's 5th.
What we first notice is that we've no data to calculate the probability.
Consider a related phenomenon: Murphy's Law
It says that anything that can happen will. Of course, this is predicated
upon a great many trials over a long period of time. Even if there aren't
an infinite number of universes, we do have perhaps billions of years
of humanity. So Murphy says the probability is effectively 100%.
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BSM1
What? Me worry?
Isn't a zero a non-occurrence? Near zero is statistically significant.
We know the probability is 1.00.
Beethoven's brain had no other source than nature, after all, and it was chance that put him in a musical culture in the right time and place.
NO I woke up this morning and had a conversation with a painter friend. She's a landscape painter, and I was mocking Dylans nonsensenical paintings with my art buildings as his anchor. I build buildings its my art. So when I become God and my buildings are the only reality and the definition of reality I get annoyed extremely fast. You can dress it up in jesus clothes it's still nonsense and it's completely not even the story. A bit like a scientist explaining sex talking about grays anatomy. Ha. I might add very little here connects to the landscape most of the conversations are staring at the walls of my art. Look at the room you are in. I doubt very seriously you are sitting in the middle of a forest. Look at the walls obviously there must be an intelligent designer we know they didn't randomly accidentally self assemble themselves. Please, me as God is lame, accidental random is confused. A simple walk in the wilderness informs us of that being confused.
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Aye, a probability which is a vanishingly small amount above zero
becomes significant over long enuf time. After all, calculus exists
because things approaching zero have enormous significance.
BSM1
What? Me worry?
Well, now that you mention it, all my walls do run to corners.
I self assembled myself. No god put the atoms and molecules I consist of together.
My walls only saunter.