Political prediction

[William T. Hathaway]

DeSantis will win the presidency in 2024. He’s a bit like Kennedy – young, dynamic, smart – but right wing. Both were war vets. His book Dreams from our Founding Fathers gives him an “intellectual” credential with his voters similar to Profiles in Courage. And Biden is a bit like Ike – old and listless. The USA is in need of effective leadership with a vision for change, so we might be headed towards a torch-is-being-past repeat of 1960 but in retrograde.

A DeSantis administration would be ghastly of course. His mission would be to divert the anger of the struggling middle class away from the rich towards poor minorities and thereby solidify a right-wing power base.

We could be spared this if Harris develops some charisma and competence and Biden steps down, but both are highly unlikely. Ironically, what could save us would be if Trump wins the nomination. I think he’s unelectable. He has lost the center and become a fringe phenomenon. He’s never really won an election in his life!

Rather than falling into despair, we should keep in mind that this shift to the right is one of those dialectical swings necessary to build revolutionary momentum. It’s a step towards the delegitimization of both capitalist parties. We just need to keep building the revolutionary Marxist-Leninist party as the alternative.

My political orientation is Trotskyist. I’m a member of the Freedom Socialist Party, www.socialism.com.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

Rather than falling into despair, we should keep in mind that this shift to the right is one of those dialectical swings necessary to build revolutionary momentum.

Forgive me if I find that to be a bit simplistic, if not pollyannish. Recent history is laced with socio-political swings that have managed to leave more than a few "revolutionary" movements in their wake, and Trotskyist tendencies seem to be over-represented in the body count.

As for the rest, I am not smart enough to predict a DeSantis victory with any confidence. Perhaps you're right.

My political orientation is Trotskyist. I’m a member of the Freedom Socialist Party, www.socialism.com.

Thanks for the link.

 

[PureX]

DeSantis has a long list of completely absurd decisions and actions to his credit that have kept him viable in Florida, but the rest of the nation is NOT Florida, and will not look favorably on that long list of absurd decisions and actions. He has also chosen to throw big business under the bus in pursuit of some of those absurd decisions. And this will not gain him much support from the corporate oligarchs. I think DiSantis has a way bigger battle ahead of his possible presidency than is being realized. I also think the republican party as a whole is still in such disarray and is still so completely rudderless, morally, socially, and economically, that even many republican voters have finally had enough of them.

Can they fix this in just 2 years? Given how entrenched their flaws and infighting have become, it doesn't look like it to me.

 

[Stevicus]

Good post, well said. Though, I'm not sure about your prediction about DeSantis. It may still come to pass, although a lot can still happen between now and 2024. After the GOP's lackluster performance in last month's election, it appears that they're starting to fall out from each other, with infighting and internal feuds.

A DeSantis administration would be ghastly of course. His mission would be to divert the anger of the struggling middle class away from the rich towards poor minorities and thereby solidify a right-wing power base.

We could be spared this if Harris develops some charisma and competence and Biden steps down, but both are highly unlikely.

I think the Democrats have also fallen into infighting and backbiting, albeit a bit less pronounced than what we're seeing within the GOP. Sanders had a great deal of support from many Democrats, although obviously not enough. Then there are those who liked Sanders and might have agreed with him, but believed he was "unelectable." So they backed the "safer," mediocre candidate, one who was less threatening to big business and corporate interests.

A large problem with the Democrats these past years is that they've seemingly based their entire existence and most of their political capital on opposition to Trump. While they've mostly succeeded in this endeavor, it has been at high cost - and Trump still hasn't been totally knocked out yet.

Ironically, what could save us would be if Trump wins the nomination. I think he’s unelectable. He has lost the center and become a fringe phenomenon. He’s never really won an election in his life!

The main reason Trump became a phenomenon at all is likely a reflection of the general public's resentment and frustration with the mainstream political establishment. Compare with Ross Perot's failed bids for the presidency in '92 and '96, where he barely made a dent. It seems the political scene changed quite a bit since then.

Rather than falling into despair, we should keep in mind that this shift to the right is one of those dialectical swings necessary to build revolutionary momentum. It’s a step towards the delegitimization of both capitalist parties. We just need to keep building the revolutionary Marxist-Leninist party as the alternative.

My political orientation is Trotskyist. I’m a member of the Freedom Socialist Party, www.socialism.com.

The shift to the right seems to be a worldwide phenomenon, reminiscent of the rise in nationalism which afflicted multiple nations leading up to WW1. The socialist message, at least on the surface, appeared to be a reaction against nationalism, suggesting that workers from all over the world had a common bond which overrode any nationalist tendencies or schools of thought. The capitalist-nationalist-imperialist way ultimately leads to war, and that seems to be a recurring theme throughout history.

 

[Debater Slayer]

We just need to keep building the revolutionary Marxist-Leninist party as the alternative.

I don't know that anyone needs to do so. Marxism-Leninism has a history laced with dictatorship, indiscriminate brutality, and erosion of human rights. It seems to me that most of its merits can be obtained through Marxist ideals without the addition of Lenin's violent endorsement of authoritarianism.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

I don't know that anyone needs to do so. Marxism-Leninism has a history laced with dictatorship, indiscriminate brutality, and erosion of human rights.

One might also suggest that Marxism-Leninism has a long history laced with co-option by brutal Stalinist dictatorships, a dialectical irony not lost on the early Trotskyists. I suspect that such tragedies will repeat so long as xenophobia trumps class interest -- pun intended.

 

[Debater Slayer]

One might also suggest that Marxism-Leninism has a long history laced with co-option by brutal Stalinist dictatorships, a dialectical irony not lost on the early Trotskyists. I suspect that such tragedies will repeat so long as xenophobia trumps class interest -- pun intended.

Are there any sources you would recommend to someone completely unfamiliar with Trotskyism and wishing to learn more about it?

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

Are there any sources you would recommend to someone completely unfamiliar with Trotskyism and wishing to learn more about it?

It's been many years since I've read them, but I recall

• Revolution Betrayed, and
• Permanent Revolution

being valuable.

 

[Debater Slayer]

It's been many years since I've read them, but I recall

• Revolution Betrayed, and
• Permanent Revolution

being valuable.

Thanks! Salaam/shalom to you. I hope you're having a wonderful holiday.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

Thanks! Salaam/shalom to you. I hope you're having a wonderful holiday.

Thank you, my friend. Salaam ...