Ontario election peanut gallery

[9-10ths_Penguin]

So... who do you think is going to win?

As of right now, the Election Prediction Project is predicting a seat breakdown of:

• PC: 51
• NDP: 40
• Liberal: 6
• Green: 1
• Too close to call: 26

And based on the most recent polling, the CBC poll tracker gives some probabilities:

• PC majority: 77.1%
• PC minority: 8.0%
• NDP majority: 9.8%
• NDP minority: 4.5%

... but it seems like the NDP has the momentum.

Thoughts?

 

[YmirGF]

Sounds good. Ontario has been more than a bit of a basket case for awhile now. Hopefully the Conservative won't screw things up too bigly.

RE: the NDP "momentum". When numbers are low, a few trotting into the fold will balloon their numbers. When numbers are high, there isn't much play.

 

[fantome profane]

I think a Doug Ford majority would be an absolute disaster.

 

[YmirGF]

I think a Doug Ford majority would be an absolute disaster.

But is it really possible to be more of a disaster than Wynne?

 

[fantome profane]

But is it really possible to be more of a disaster than Wynne?

Infinitely so.

 

[YmirGF]

Infinitely so.

I didn't know that was possible. Wynne has been almost beyond words.

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

I didn't know that was possible. Wynne has been almost beyond words.

In what way? I think the criticism of the sale of Hydro One is valid, but that’s really my only complaint about her.

The gas plant scandal has been an ongoing thing, but that was really McGuinty’s doing.

The other big issues she tends to get flak about are the updated sex Ed curriculum and the minimum wage increase, but I agree with both of those measures.

Reforming the OMB seems like a good and necessary thing, but nobody’s praising her for that.

In a perfect world, there would have been more of a public consultation for windmill projects, but given all the NIMBYism there’s been on this issue, maybe the approach taken was the right one.

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

Analysis from the CBC Poll Tracker folks as of today:

After closing the gap on the PCs, the New Democrats' momentum appears to have stalled as the two parties have been effectively tied in the polls, with the leader going back and forth, for almost two weeks. The PCs are still projected to win the most seats because of their ability to capture more ridings in the GTA-Hamilton-Niagara region, where they can win twice as many seats as the NDP despite a slim lead there in the polls.

CBC News Ontario Poll Tracker

Most of the polls out right now were either partly or fully before Wynne’s announcement/concession on June 2. I’ll be interested to see how the polls look once they reflect only “after” voter attitudes.