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My take on Climate Change

Oberon

Well-Known Member
Here is the sources of those datas, if you look at these sources they don't all use tree rings.


Let's,
1) P.D. Jones, K.R. Briffa, T.P. Barnett, and S.F.B. Tett (1998). , The Holocene:

Tree rings.

2) M.E. Mann, R.S. Bradley, and M.K. Hughes (1999). , Geophysical Research Letters, 26(6): 759-762.

Tree rings.

3)Crowley and Lowery (2000). , Ambio, 29: 51-54. Modified as published in Crowley (2000). , Science, 289: 270-277. doi:10.1126/science.289.5477.270

This wasn't even an independent temperature reconstruction, so I am beginning to think you didn't bother to read any of your own references.

4) K.R. Briffa, T.J. Osborn, F.H. Schweingruber, I.C. Harris, P.D. Jones, S.G. Shiyatov, S.G. and E.A. Vaganov

Tree rings.

I could keep going, but this is obviously just a cut and paste job. You missed plenty of reconstructions which show and MWP. Even Mann's latest does, and the only reason it isn't as high is because of the poor proxy series he used to go back to that period. Next time you want to make claims about studies, read them first.
 

Oberon

Well-Known Member
And of course this is only the last 2000 years. It doesn't get into previous massive fluctuations, such as the much warmer Holocene Climate Optimum.
 

evolved yet?

A Young Evolutionist
The Dark Red was based on glacial cores. Orange was a multi-proxy. Dark Blue is also made from Tree rings, Coral Rings, and ice cores. The first which you stated to be Tree rings does not give a form of testing unless you bought that article. Black is thermometers.
 

Oberon

Well-Known Member
The Dark Red was based on glacial cores. Orange was a multi-proxy. Dark Blue is also made from Tree rings, Coral Rings, and ice cores. The first which you stated to be Tree rings does not give a form of testing unless you bought that article. Black is thermometers.


I have access to all the articles through my university, most of them electronically (academic search premier, JSTOR, etc.) And did you even look at the dates? The dark red is from 1600-1990. Let's just say for the sake of argument it is absolutely valid. The medieval warm period was from c. 900 CE to c. 1300 CE, so it would have no relevance. As for multi-proxies, you have to understand the statistical algorithms used to sort the data. PCA will pull out patterns, but too often (as in, e.g. the most famous hockey-stick graph), it will weight series with a particular (i.e. hockey-stick) shape. Also, multi-proxies almost always use tree rings. An exception to this was Loehle's reconstruction which used non-tree ring proxies and showed a warmer MWP. Also, your graph leaves out studies and multi-proxy series which show an MWP close to or surpassing the current warming. For example, Huang, Pollack, and Shen (2008) found the MWP was only "slightly below" the reference level (with the current warming only .5 above), while the Holocene Climate Optimum whas nearly 2 degrees ABOVE the current warming. Dr. Idso and his team have put together a good collection of MWP studies, although in general I am not particularly fond either of his site or of him.
 
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ericoh2

******
I don't want to distract from the very important posts above on the validity and diversity of paleoclimatological reconstructions, but out of curiousity have you even read the emails released or the inquiries into them?

Is there actually a conclusive cause behind Global Warming? From what little I've read about the subject, it seems to me that there is an awful lot of assumption behind the generally accepted theory of CO2 emission. I thought I would ask you this question since you seem to have a lot of knowledge on this topic.
 

Oberon

Well-Known Member
Is there actually a conclusive cause behind Global Warming? From what little I've read about the subject, it seems to me that there is an awful lot of assumption behind the generally accepted theory of CO2 emission. I thought I would ask you this question since you seem to have a lot of knowledge on this topic.

That's a difficult question to answer. You are right: there is a lot of assumption, in that much of what we "know" about global warming comes from models which, while improving and vastly complicated, have not been able to accurately predict the future. Additionally, we know that there are important parts of the climate system we don't understand. Put simply, the basis behind global warming theory is that we know certain gases humans are pouring into the atmosphere (note, however, that these are still a tiny fraction of the atmosphere and that much of what is emitted is absorbed) have thermodynamic properties which can raise atmospheric temperatures. Climate models look at the influence of these gases projected over time and display the resulting temperature. The problem is we don't properly understand all the mechanisms involved in climactic temperatures or trends. Specifically, all the models assume that small increases of GHGs will cause positive feedbacks in climate system which will further raise temperatures. There is some evidence for this. However, there is also evidence for the reverse, and much of the evidence for positive feedbacks is problematic (e.g. we haven't yet been able to explain the massive temperature fluctuations in past climates).

So yes, there is some solid science behind global warming. Increased CO2 and other GHGs will, by themselves, raise temperatures. The problems come in when dealing with how the climate system responds to such increases.
 
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ericoh2

******
That's a difficult question to answer. You are right: there is a lot of assumption, in that much of what we "know" about global warming comes from models which, while improving and vastly complicated, have not been able to accurately predict the future. Additionally, we know that there are important parts of the climate system we don't understand. Put simply, the basis behind global warming theory is that we know certain gases humans are pouring into the atmosphere (note, however, that these are still a tiny fraction of the atmosphere and that much of what is emitted is absorbed) have thermodynamic properties which can raise atmospheric temperatures. Climate models look at the influence of these gases projected over time and display the resulting temperature. The problem is we don't properly understand al the mechanisms involved in climactic temperatures or trends. Specifically, all the models assume that small increases GHGs will cause positive feedbacks in climate system which will further raise temperatures. There is some evidence for this. However, there is also evidence for the reverse, and much of the evidence for positive feedbacks is problematic (e.g. we haven't yet been able to explain the massive temperature fluctuations in past climates).

So yes, there is some solid science behind global warming. Increased CO2 and other GHGs will, by themselves, raise temperatures. The problems come in when dealing with how the climate system responds to such increases.

I actually found an older thread where you were kind of talking about this with some others but didn't see it until after I posted the last question. It looks like you've spoken about this topic quite a bit on this forum. Thanks for answering though :), guess I should have checked some of the past global warming threads first though lol.
 

Oberon

Well-Known Member
I actually found an older thread where you were kind of talking about this with some others but didn't see it until after I posted the last question. It looks like you've spoken about this topic quite a bit on this forum. Thanks for answering though :), guess I should have checked some of the past global warming threads first though lol.

As I said in another recent thread, this forum was great for me in this are. I'm lucky in that as I teach at a few universities I have access to a lot of academic literature. A while ago on this forum, I got into a debate and realized a lot of what I knew about climate was outdated. So I spent over a year talking/emailing with various specialits, reading tons of journal articles, reading through the IPCC, looking at the top blogs on both sides (particularly realclimate.org and climateaudit.org), and various books published by experts and academic presses. Of course, a lot of this required refreshing my knowledge of more advanced physics, linear algebra (with statistical applications), various statistical algorithms, and (unfortunately) acquainting myself with some programming languages I hadn't really dealt with before. But I think this is a really important issue in today's world, and I want to be as informed as I can. I made up my mind when I did similar research a few years ago. I have this forum to thank for realizing that the science had advanced and I had fallen behind. I've done a lot of learning in the past few years.
 
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evolved yet?

A Young Evolutionist
Okay, you appear to know more about this controversy than I do, but for a second let us look at this from another angle, there is two parts to cc:
1. Greenhouse effect, that the greenhouse effect can cause warming and cooling.
2. Humans are releasing a significant amount of greenhouse gases.
Which do you disagree with?
 

Oberon

Well-Known Member
Okay, you appear to know more about this controversy than I do, but for a second let us look at this from another angle, there is two parts to cc:
1. Greenhouse effect, that the greenhouse effect can cause warming and cooling.
2. Humans are releasing a significant amount of greenhouse gases.
Which do you disagree with?

Number one is a little in exact. The atmosphere is filled with what we call greenhouse gases which absorb and emit infrared raditiation or heat. This is essential for life on this planet, as this radiative effect causes the lower atmosphere, where we live, to be warm enough to live in, and cools the the upper atmosphere. So, yes, an increase in greenhouse gases can cause an increase in temperatures in the lower atmosphere.

As for number two, yes I agree.

So for the most part I disagree with neither statement. What you have to understand it that the theory of global warming includes a VITAL third step. The increase in temperatures caused by the emissions alone doesn't worry any climate scientists. Those who believe that humans are causing a dangerous increase in temperatures are concerned that this increase will result in positive feedbacks in the climate system. In other words, the small and non-problematic increase from the greenhouse gases will interact with the climate system in such a way that the temperature will raise even more. For example, the increase in CO2 won't directly cause the dire temperatures in 100 years many are worried about, but they may do other things like interact with water vapor (the most significant greenhouse "gas") and increase temperatures even more.
 

evolved yet?

A Young Evolutionist
So you don't believe that feed backs like the warming tundra( which is releasing methane) will have an effect?
 

Oberon

Well-Known Member
So you don't believe that feed backs like the warming tundra( which is releasing methane) will have an effect?

I don't think you quite understand what I mean by feedbacks. That's my fault. Let me clarify (and I apologize if some of this is too elementary and you already know a lot of it; I just want to be thorough.) . First, let me quote my short explanation as to what AGW, or anthropogenic (i.e. caused by humans) global warming, is:


Part 1: The Theory of Global Warming. What it is?
Most people know that global warming (or climate change, as it is often called now) has to do with the warming of the earth from greenhouse gasses (GHGs) like carbon dioxide. That’s true, but it misses a lot of important aspects of the theory. First, as many also likely know, the “greenhouse” around our planet is our atmosphere, and if it wasn’t trapping heat we’d all be dead. The atmosphere is basically a “radiative blanket” of gasses. Pretty much everything absorbs and emits infrared radiation (heat). For us and for our planet, the greatest amount of infrared radiation by far comes (obviously) from the sun. Our atmosphere, which is full of GHGs, strongly absorbs and emits infrared radiation. This radiative blanked keeps the lower atmosphere (right down to the surface) warmer, and the upper atmosphere cooler.
So far, so good. However, what happens when humans start emitting lots of GHGs into the atmosphere? Obviously, the “thicker” the radiative blanket, the warmer the lower levels of the atmosphere, and therefore we start getting higher temperatures. So why would anyone argue that emitting known GHGs like carbon dioxide or methane isn’t causing global warming?
This is where things get interesting. First of all, carbon dioxide is a trace gas. There isn’t a lot of it, even now after lots and lots of emissions (and by the way, a good deal of what we emit doesn’t stay in the atmosphere but is reabsorbed). In fact, nobody thinks that the anthropogenic emissions alone are responsible for AGW. Enter weather, clouds, water vapor, and feedbacks.
Weather is pretty much the result of thermodynamic physics (remember the second law of thermodynamics?). It is caused by heat, and serves to move heat around. Without getting into the nitty gritty, various weather processes (rain, clouds, evaporation, wind) all are caused by and/or serve to deal with heat. For example, changing water into vapor means heat loss (latent heat loss, to be more precise). In other words, there is a constant, massive, cooling process (many, actually, as well as warming processes, but I am focusing on one here) going on all the time as heat energy is “taken up” and used to turn water into vapor, which cools the air around it as well as the earth.

The point is there are a lot of things going on in our atmosphere all the time which cool the earth and which heat it. So it isn’t as simple as “more GHGs= dire AGW.” And, not even the most alarmist global warming scientists think so.
What many people do not understand is that those scientists (who are, I should point out, in the majority) who believe that humans are causing a dangerous temperature increase via the emissions of GHGs DO NOT believe that the GHGs are directly responsible for the temperature increase. Barring any other atmospheric effects, the increase in temperatures caused by GHGs alone is very small. So why all the worry?
The basis of AGW theory is that anthropogenic emissions of GHGs (particularly carbon dioxide) will cause positive feedbacks in the atmospheric systems. Let me be clear: positive is NOT good. A positive feedback means that an initial process (in this case the increase in, say, carbon dioxide) will do other things in the atmosphere which will cause an even greater increase in temperatures. All the models and predictions of AGW DEPEND on this feedback system. And, while not undisputed, numerous studies have suggested that indeed increases in GHGs will result in positive feedbacks, making the global average temperature much higher than it otherwise would be.

That is, in a simplistic nutshell, what AGW theory is: the releasing of certain gasses (especially carbon dioxide) by humans into the atmosphere will result in a chain reaction which will end up causing the global temperature to rise, and rise, and rise. Even ignoring for the moment the predicted side effects of this warming (terrible storms, sea level rises, etc) it is fairly obvious that if the temperature continues to rise eventually we won’t be able to tolerate it.

So, as I said, all of the bad things which may come about as a result of AGW are not the result of GHGs but of feedbacks. So, what do I mean by feedbacks? The climate is an immensely complex dynamical system with lots of interacting "sub" systems and variables (e.g. clouds, aerosals, water waper, the oceans, the sun, even stars exploding billions of miles a way). Some things warm the earth (or rather the atmosphere level at which humans live), some things cool it, some do both. And all of these things interact.

A feedback for our purposes is basically (or simplistically) when one process influences another (or several other) processes which then "feedback" into the first. A positive feedback system is when the process or processes influenced increase the first process. Negative is the reverse. Let's look at a simple example: hormones. Let's say an endocrine gland releases hormones to act on a target cell or cells. On the one hand, the released hormones will go out to the cells and do their jobs. However, the same hormones which were released will also feedback into the gland which released it. This in turn will tell the gland not to release more of that hormone. So the first process, the release of hormones, acted on another process (the gland), and decreased the levels of this hormone. The same process which began the system (the release of hormones) ended up reducing itself. This is negative feedback.

Positive feedback, obviously, is the reverse. It would be as if the release of hormone triggered the gland to release more.

So how does this relate to climate? Let's use a fairly simple example: water vapor. Water vapor is one of the better understood (sub-) systems of our climate. Since we are talking about warming, the initial process we are concerned with is that warming. Now, we know that an increase in a gas like CO2 will, controlling for all other variables, increase the "radiative blanket" which will raise temperatures at the level of the atmosphere we live in. However, we also know that the greatest "greenhouse gas" in the atmosphere is water vapor. Furthermore, hot air can be more humid than cold air (i.e. can contain more water vapor). So if the increase in CO2 causes an increase in temperatures, this increase in temperatures may cause an increase in water vapor. This in turn will also increase temperatures.

This is one example of the positive feedbacks which many experts believe will occur as a result of the increase in CO2.
 

evolved yet?

A Young Evolutionist
So what do you think is wrong with climate change? Is it that you think it is insignificant against past warming events?
 

Oberon

Well-Known Member
So what do you think is wrong with climate change? Is it that you think it is insignificant against past warming events?

Well, first of all I don't like the term climate change, because that's what the climate does. It changes. The earth has been much warmer and much colder in the past. Of course, sometimes skeptics (almost always those who aren't experts) will point to periods millions of years ago or more and note the vast temperature difference from today. There is some importance in such observations, but only in so far as it helps one to understand the massive shifts the climate can go through without humans. It isn't important in determining whether the current climate change is something we should worry about, because there were plenty of times in the history of the earth that the climate would have been very hostile to us.

If you want to know why I am not a full-fledged believer in AGW, I will give a fairly brief explanation, but at this point I'm not going to give any references. However, if there are any points I make for which you want academic references, please just let me know, and I will provide them. Or if you want me to go into more detail about anything, again just let me know.

It's hard to order the various reasons why I am not fully convinced in the IPCC version of climate change. But I will do my best.

1. The science behind the models

Most of the worry about what will happen and what is happening is based on several independently developed very complex models of our atmosphere. We plug CO2 (and other GHG) levels into these models and view the results, which are needless to say very bad.

However, while there are several models referred to in the literature, and they do differ, all of them share several important assumptions about the climate and none of them accurately model the climate (which is impossible at the moment as we don't understand too many important parts about it, particularly clouds). So, where could they be wrong?

The most important assumption for catastrophic warming is, as I said, the assumption in the models of a strong positive feedback. However, not only are many important parts of the climate system not understood, there is evidence that the climate has negative feedback systems which will either lessen the impact of GHG emissions to the point where we don't really have to worry anytime soon or will negate them entirely.

Also important are some of the reasons for assuming positive feedbacks. Some of these come from our incomplete understanding of the climate (e.g. the water vapor thing I mentioned in my last post), but many come from other observations, two of which are vital to mention here. The first is reconstructions of past climate. If we reconstruct thousands of years of temperature, and the result is fairly flat except for the current warming, then there may be good reason to believe that the climate is very sensitive to our impact on it (i.e. positive feedbacks). However, the first problem is that the reconstructions most focused on only go back about 2000 years or less. That's nothing, even considering only the time humans have been around. So even if Mann's original hockey-stick (the one which showed almost no fluctuations) was correct, we are still left with other periods of large warming and cooling (e.g. the Holocene Climate Optimum). I think that the main impetus for the graphs going back 1500 years or so is for the effect they have on public opinion. After all, if we look at the record over millions of years, we see massive fluctuations which must be explained.

Also, as I noted earlier, there are problems with most of these reconstructions. It appears that many scientists seem to use proxy series that they know are corrupt because, when the statistical algorithms are used to sort the data, these series will weight they final shape in such a way as to generate a more hockey-stick like graph. In fact, even the temperature record (i.e. the period of time for which we have actual instruments like thermometers measuring the temperature) has problems. Of course, virtually no expert believes that the instrumental temperature record is so off we can't say that the earth has warmed. But there is reason to believe that it is exaggerated. Also, while most people who read about climate change think that the warming of the 20th century is all because of GHGs, according to scientists (and I mean the ones that believe we are causing the warming) only the period after about 1970 is the result of increases in GHGs. Yet there is a warming of an equal length at the beginning of the 20th century. Also, it may be that the hottest year on record dates from that period. There is also a period of cooling prior to the current warming thought to be caused by us and after the first 20th century warming not related to GHGs.

The second issue with the feedback assumption that doesn't come from climate dynamics is the assumption that nothing other than GHGs could cause the current warming, and therefore there must be strong positive feedbacks because we also know that without them the GHGs couldn't cause the warming. Only this may well not be true. There have been a number of studies, including quite recent ones, which indicate that the current warming may be caused by something else. For example, a series of studies by several important researchers over the last 20 years or so deal with a totally different climactic factor which may be the cause of observed warming (as far as I know, the most recent peer-reviewed study on this particular cause of warming was published last year, but there may be more recent ones). This research deals with cloud-seeding caused by Galactic Cosmic Rays (which result from stars billions of miles away). There is a large and growing amount of evidence that these rays cause "cloud seeding" in the lower atmosphere, increasing cloud coverage, which in turn raises the temperature.

Another possible cause has to do with the PDO. Then there are theories about solar influence. Then there are those who say we don't know enough about the climate system to say what is causing the warming, and point to past warming periods for which AGW can't be responsible (and often enough also point to problems in the temperature record, which may mean that the warming isn't as drastic as it looks). Some of these are more widely accepted and/or studied than others, but the point is the assumption that nothing else could explain the current warming other than human released GHGs combined with positive feedbacks is contradicted by many, many recent studies. This doesn't prove the theory wrong, and certainly the AGW proponents have published their own studies in which they argue against all of these mechanisms of warming to explain the current trend, but the point is the debate isn't over.
 
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Oberon

Well-Known Member
2. Past climate change

This is someone related to the issue of the models above. Putting aside the debate on climate fluctuation over the past 2000 years, we know very well that there have been ice ages, high CO2 levels, higher temperatures, etc, throughout the earth's history. There are many theories out there, some more accepted than others, explaining at least some of these fluctuations, and some of these are then related and incorporated into AGW theory. For example, there is the carbon cycle (level of carbon in the atmosphere) over however many millions of years and how it correlates with temperature, which AGW proponents cite in support of their theory. If you watched Gore's movie, this is the clip with him looking at a huge graph of C02 levels and temperatures over hundreds of thousands of years. It's very dramatic. There's just one problem: while the correlation exists, the temperature rise and CO2 rise are a few hundred years apart. Now, non-expert skeptics make a big deal about this, but I wouldn't be being fair if I didn't point out that AGW scientists are aware of this and have explanations for it. The issue is whether they are correct.

The point is, our instrumental temperature record doesn't go back very far at all, and there are all sorts of complications with it. The far better satellite record only goes back about 40 years, and there are problems reconciling this data with AGW theory. Then there are the billions of years the planet has been around, and the tens of thousands of years humans have been around, and the changing climate during all that time. As with the climate in general, I don't think we adequately understand the mechanisms behind past climate changes in order to rule that the current trend is mainly anthropogenic.
 
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Oberon

Well-Known Member
3. What is wrong with warming?

There is another type of scientist besides those who doubt AGW who are often labeled skeptics (or deniers). These are those scientists who believe we are probably warming the planet, but that it won't be such a bad thing. There beliefs differ, but in general we can say they don't believe temperatures will get high enough fast enough to do any damage (and might be beneficial), that increased levels of CO2 might be good, and finally that many of the assumed problems which are theorized to occur as a result of AGW are based on bad science (e.g. increased dangerous weather, famines, etc). To put it simply, these scientists believe we are warming the planet but either it isn't going to be a problem or it isn't going to be enough of a problem to warrant any drastic measures.

4. The politics

The more political the issue, the less reliable the academic system for reporting and publishing research is. Global warming is extremely political, and there are several reasons to think that a lot of research which contradicts AGW theory is ignored, not funded, discouraged, etc.

First, apart from groups on both sides of the political spectrum which fund research (e.g. environmentalists or right-wing think tanks), the vast majority of research money is from governments. This means a couple of important things. First, governments don't fund (or at least not a lot) scientists or labs who research things which aren't problems (e.g the person or lab working on a cure for cancer is going to get a lot more funding a lot easier than a person or group researching hunting patterns of sharks). This means that there is a big financial incentive to maybe add some dramatic "coloring" to the published research, or perhaps ignore results or evidence which doesn't fit with the hypothesis being investigated (if it supports AGW). It also means that labs which want to continue to get funding are under pressure (probably not intentional) to release studies showing that there is a problem. Now, I'm not saying that most (or even any) scientists or research groups are fudging data and forging results for money. It's not like they are getting paid a lot. It's simply that, explicit or no, there is a pressure both at the government level and at the administrative level (of the various labs) to report dangers rather than "all clear." And anyone who has knowledge or experience with getting grants and funding for projects knows it is very competitive and there are a whole lot of people out there with doctoral degrees barely making any money because the subject they are researching hasn't generated a lot of interest.

Second, there is the issue of politics in academia. I've spent a lot of time teaching at the university level, studying at the university level, attending conferences, interacting with professors, etc. In Europe and in the US, the two biggest (both in terms of money and extent of research) places for climate research, the vast majority of those working in universities are politically left of center. Now, again this doesn't mean researchers are fudging data to further a political agenda. But bias creeps in everywhere, and it can certainly have an effect. One of the biggest issues is what research is being done. For a study to be undertaken, the researcher or researchers first have to come up with a subject of study and a hypothesis to test. If most researchers tend towards the left, and therefore are more likely to tend towards environmentalism, they are more likely to come up with research topics and hypotheses which look into how humans are influencing climate rather than how natural forces are. This is VERY important, because it not only relates to the first point about money above (if the warming is natural, there goes most of the funding), but also because the climate is immensely complex and difficult to study. Focusing on human actions is easier and their effects is easier than trying to accurately model all of the natural variables and their interactions which are part of our climate system.

Third, I'd like to take a bit of time to mention the hacked CRU emails, and the constant battle both professional and amateur researchers have had getting access to raw data and codes. The emails are extremely interesting because a lot of what they relate to has been discussed by both sides of debate for many years now (the hockey stick, getting access to data, the back and forth between certain researchers, etc). The CRU emails show some of the behind the scenes work, thoughts, and exchanges that major climate scientists were engaging in, which include refusing to release codes, admissions in private that public research like Mann's hockey-stick had errors, attempts to evade FOI requests, and so forth. Most importantly, they portray lead researchers determined to get their side out there and actively prevent the other side from being heard. They display not a scientific, objective view of the issue, but an emotional one. This isn't the place to get into detail, although perhaps I will start another post which goes over the history behind the emails, the emails themselves, the various inquiries, and so forth.

Finally, many skeptical scientists have complained that even when they manage to get funding for studies which do not support AGW, they are met with refusal after refusal by various journals to publish these studies, or (at the very least) they are asked to take out statements or soften statements which explicitly contradict or put into question aspects of AGW theory. Now, it could (and has been argued) that this is because the studies were flawed or simply not good enough, but there are several indications this isn't the reason. The most important indication is the quality of some of the AGW research which DOES get published. For example, just recently the IPCC (the largest and most important group of scientists when it comes to public policy) had to wipe a lot of egg off of their faces because of their latest report. It is important to understand that the IPCC doesn't do any research. They are a massive group of scientists responsible for reviewing the scientific literature on climate change and publishing findings every 6 years of so based on that research (the issue with IPCC policy, leadership, and so forth are issues for another post or thread). In the most recent report, several ridiculous errors were made despite the supposed extensive system of checks in place prior to publication. In one instance, they published a graph of the estimated financial cost of global warming as if this was part of the scientific literature, when it turned out one scientist in particular without doing any research drew up the graph as a guess and sort of sent it around informally. He recently admitted this and publicly stated the graph shouldn't be included in the IPCC (I need to point out that I don't believe he had anything to do with its inclusion). Another publicized error was the inclusion of data concerning drastic effects of AGW which came not from scientific literature but from a tourist pamphlet. Outside the IPCC, when we look at the peer-revied journals, we find the same problems. To use just one famous example, the one thing that is beyond reasonable dispute is that Mann's famous hockey-stick graph, which was featured prominently all over the place, and consisted of two separate publications in a peer-review journal, and was featured in the second to last IPCC report, was never really checked by anyone. That is, no one ever bothered to look at the raw data, the methods, or the codes used to generate the graph. Also, it is widely accepted (and even Mann published some corrections) that the graph was flawed. While some still argue that the flaws don't matter much, apart from the peer-reviewed and published criticisms, two separate panels investigated Mann's work. While Wegman's panel was very critical, and the NAS less so, both agreed that there were important errors and that the conclusions of temperatures during the MWP were questionable.

In other words, here was a graph touted all over the place that had numerous errors. And it isn't alone. One of the papers Mann has continued to cite (even before it was published) to support his methods, by Wahl and Amman, was continually asked to be corrected prior to publication, and even though when it was finally published it included statistical results which indicated the findings were insignificant, the study was published anyway. Basically, it is hard to believe that while many papers supporting AGW pass the peer-review check system and contain important errors (I need to note here that this by itself doesn't indicate anything; peer-reviews are usually very thorough and most submissions across fields are rejected or require revisions), so many leading scientists and experts complain that it is becoming more and more difficult to publish research which questions AGW theory. The combination of the difficulty obtaining funding/grants to research topics which might contradict AGW, the pressure from both government and research groups (e.g. universities, labs, etc) not to research such topics, and the difficulty (when researchers manage to overcome the first two problems) of finding a journal which will publish research which contradicts/questions AGW theory means that there may be a great deal more evidence AGAINST AGW theory that isn't coming out for one or more of these reasons.
 
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Oberon

Well-Known Member
4. The Bandwagon

Academics are not immune to following the crowd. The more experts buy into a particular view, the more likely it is others will follow, even if the research isn't conclusive. Now, certainly this effect is different with experts than with the public, and there is substantial research supporting AGW out there, but this tendency allows experts to look past research indicating AGW theory is flawed or incorrect, and increases the number of scientists supporting the theory without actually increasing supporting research. And, despite the difficulty skeptics have publishing their research, there has and continues to be studies which contradict or question important aspects of AGW theory.
 

evolved yet?

A Young Evolutionist
Well although some human problems are overreacted, what about sea level rise? 1 metre predicted by the IPCC is considered by many to be conservative and some predict 3 to 5 metres which would be very bad and hurt the economy, this still leaves out feedbacks such as glacier dynamics like the Larsen B ice shelf problems. Hurricane Katrina was very bad, a warming world will have worse. Droughts are getting worse and might cause a famine. Heat waves will cause large problems with Heat stroke and other heat related deaths and disease. Heat will increase the area where mosquitoes can live and therefore increase the range of malarial disease. Water acidifications will hurt animals with shells of calcium carbonate apparently it is the sort of thing usually seen only every 300 million years( reference).
 
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