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Monkeypox

Discussion in 'Health & Healing' started by ronki23, May 19, 2022.

  1. exchemist

    exchemist Veteran Member

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    "They" didn't, actually, but in any case it has nothing to do with monkeypox.
     
  2. We Never Know

    We Never Know Veteran Member

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  3. exchemist

    exchemist Veteran Member

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  4. ronki23

    ronki23 Well-Known Member

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    Just saying Monkeypox's higher estimate (2.13) is near to that of the Wuhan variant of Covid-19 (2.79)
     
  5. We Never Know

    We Never Know Veteran Member

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    Yeah my bad. I should have said die down
     
  6. exchemist

    exchemist Veteran Member

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    That's misleading, even if the R number really is as high as 2.13, which is disputed.

    R number is a function of how a disease behaves in a particular society, not a number intrinsic to a disease. The number in the W African societies of 30 years ago bears little relation to what the number would be in the UK today. This illness is literally contagious, i.e. spread by physical touching, of infected skin lesions. The R number for spread in a cool country where people wear a lot of clothes and live lives that don't involve much skin-skin contact will be far lower than in a hot country in which groups in rural communities live close together, wearing few clothes and with little information about the risks of disease transmission.

    You cannot simply read the R number across from one society to the other.
     
    #26 exchemist, May 27, 2022
    Last edited: May 28, 2022
  7. exchemist

    exchemist Veteran Member

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    Yes. Which covid does in summer. And then it comes back in the colder weather.
     
  8. ronki23

    ronki23 Well-Known Member

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  9. exchemist

    exchemist Veteran Member

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  10. ronki23

    ronki23 Well-Known Member

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    452 England , 478 UK
     
  11. exchemist

    exchemist Veteran Member

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    So reaching a plateau, at very low numbers, then. Rather as one might have expected.

    Next...........
     
  12. ronki23

    ronki23 Well-Known Member

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    >50% increase in a week (for 3 weeks) is a plateau ?
     
  13. exchemist

    exchemist Veteran Member

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    That’s not what I said. I said “reaching”.

    You posted earlier an exponential growth pattern for this disease. Instead, what we have is a growth curve that is flattening.
     
  14. Quagmire

    Quagmire Imaginary talking monkey
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    "Monkeypox spreads through direct contact with body fluids or sores on the body of someone who has monkeypox, or with direct contact with materials that have touched body fluids or sores, such as clothing or linens. It may also spread through respiratory secretions when people have close, face-to-face contact.5 days ago"
    CDC Newsroom

    Transmission-wise it sounds like it has more in common with something like hepatitis.
     
  15. ronki23

    ronki23 Well-Known Member

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    478 to 793 in a week so now it's a 40% increase in a week
     
  16. exchemist

    exchemist Veteran Member

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    Whereas last time it was 50% in a week. So that is a slowing down of the rate of increase, whereas an exponential would have a continually growing rate of increase.

    This is consistent with R<1. So yes, it seems to be heading towards a plateau and then most likely a decline. As expected.
     
  17. ronki23

    ronki23 Well-Known Member

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    I couldn't find the UK Covid-19 growth figures (only charts and graphs) but wasn't it a sudden explosion ? Because we didn't confirm Covid-19 in the UK until January/February
     
  18. exchemist

    exchemist Veteran Member

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    It was an exponential rise for quite a long time, the number of cases doubling every 5-7 days or so. That involves the rate of growth itself increasing. In graphical terms , the slope of the curve was getting steeper al the time. Whereas with monkeypox, the slope of the curve seems to be already becoming less over time, i.e. flattening out.
     
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