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Monkeypox

exchemist

Veteran Member
Just saying Monkeypox's higher estimate (2.13) is near to that of the Wuhan variant of Covid-19 (2.79)

That's misleading, even if the R number really is as high as 2.13, which is disputed.

R number is a function of how a disease behaves in a particular society, not a number intrinsic to a disease. The number in the W African societies of 30 years ago bears little relation to what the number would be in the UK today. This illness is literally contagious, i.e. spread by physical touching, of infected skin lesions. The R number for spread in a cool country where people wear a lot of clothes and live lives that don't involve much skin-skin contact will be far lower than in a hot country in which groups in rural communities live close together, wearing few clothes and with little information about the risks of disease transmission.

You cannot simply read the R number across from one society to the other.
 
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exchemist

Veteran Member
>50% increase in a week (for 3 weeks) is a plateau ?
That’s not what I said. I said “reaching”.

You posted earlier an exponential growth pattern for this disease. Instead, what we have is a growth curve that is flattening.
 

Quagmire

Imaginary talking monkey
Staff member
Premium Member
"Monkeypox spreads through direct contact with body fluids or sores on the body of someone who has monkeypox, or with direct contact with materials that have touched body fluids or sores, such as clothing or linens. It may also spread through respiratory secretions when people have close, face-to-face contact.5 days ago"
CDC Newsroom

Transmission-wise it sounds like it has more in common with something like hepatitis.
 

ronki23

Well-Known Member
That’s not what I said. I said “reaching”.

You posted earlier an exponential growth pattern for this disease. Instead, what we have is a growth curve that is flattening.

478 to 793 in a week so now it's a 40% increase in a week
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
478 to 793 in a week so now it's a 40% increase in a week
Whereas last time it was 50% in a week. So that is a slowing down of the rate of increase, whereas an exponential would have a continually growing rate of increase.

This is consistent with R<1. So yes, it seems to be heading towards a plateau and then most likely a decline. As expected.
 

ronki23

Well-Known Member
Whereas last time it was 50% in a week. So that is a slowing down of the rate of increase, whereas an exponential would have a continually growing rate of increase.

This is consistent with R<1. So yes, it seems to be heading towards a plateau and then most likely a decline. As expected.

I couldn't find the UK Covid-19 growth figures (only charts and graphs) but wasn't it a sudden explosion ? Because we didn't confirm Covid-19 in the UK until January/February
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
I couldn't find the UK Covid-19 growth figures (only charts and graphs) but wasn't it a sudden explosion ? Because we didn't confirm Covid-19 in the UK until January/February
It was an exponential rise for quite a long time, the number of cases doubling every 5-7 days or so. That involves the rate of growth itself increasing. In graphical terms , the slope of the curve was getting steeper al the time. Whereas with monkeypox, the slope of the curve seems to be already becoming less over time, i.e. flattening out.
 

ronki23

Well-Known Member
It was an exponential rise for quite a long time, the number of cases doubling every 5-7 days or so. That involves the rate of growth itself increasing. In graphical terms , the slope of the curve was getting steeper al the time. Whereas with monkeypox, the slope of the curve seems to be already becoming less over time, i.e. flattening out.

478 to 793 in a week so now it's a 40% increase in a week
It went up to 1076 on 26th June so 35% increase in 4 days
It went up to 1235 on 30th June so 55% increase in 8 days
Between 26th and 30th June It was a 14% increase in 4 days
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
It went up to 1076 on 26th June so 35% increase in 4 days
It went up to 1235 on 30th June so 55% increase in 8 days
Between 26th and 30th June It was a 14% increase in 4 days
There will be scatter in the data. You would need to use consistent data over a period, and plot a best fit curve through the data points, to see the trend. But it's obviously levelling off, as expected for a disease that has low transmissibility.
 
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