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Israel's next war - a long, informative, and disturbing opinion piece

Jayhawker Soule

-- untitled --
Premium Member
There is a new opinion piece in the Atlantic titled The Coming Middle East Conflagration. Its author is Michael Oren and his credentials are more than impressive.

The picture Oren paints is more than a little disturbing, but I'm even more disturbed by what I sense as the articles subtext, i.e., by the underlying intend of the article, which does not surface until the article's last paragraph:

... the United States is clearly committed to helping protect Israel’s skies. Whether American troops would go on the offensive on Israel’s behalf, striking Iranian bases, remains uncertain.

That ambiguity is only deepening in an election year in which the incumbent and his opponents are campaigning to end old Middle Eastern wars, not get bogged down in new ones. Polls taken after the president’s decision to withdraw from Syria showed a lack of bipartisan support for even a small-scale American military involvement in the region. Yet administration officials have repeatedly assured me that Israel is not Syria or Saudi Arabia, and that Israel can count on massive U.S. support if needed.

I continue to believe that is true. I recall President Obama’s comment to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office six years ago this week, on the last day of my service as Israeli ambassador. “The United States will always come to Israel’s aid in the event of a war,” he said, “because that is what the American people expect.” But I also remember that, back in 1973, Egypt and Syria saw a president preoccupied with an impeachment procedure, and concluded that Israel was vulnerable. In the subsequent war, Israel prevailed—but at an excruciating price. The next war could prove even costlier.

The message seems pretty clear: IMPEACHMENT IS BAD FOR ISRAEL.

If this is, indeed, the intended message (and I could be way off base here), I doubt that the decision to disseminate such a caution originated with Oren, and I would not be surprised to find Netanyahu among those pulling the strings.
 

Estro Felino

Believer in free will
Premium Member
I still don't understand why Israel cares about Syria and why USA troops should remain in Syria, according to Israel
 

Brickjectivity

Turned to Stone. Now I stretch daily.
Staff member
Premium Member
I still don't understand why Israel cares about Syria and why USA troops should remain in Syria, according to Israel
That will be complicated. Israel, USA and Russia are all interested in Syria strategically. Russia is probably interested in better relations with Israel. Israel is probably interested in better security. USA is interested in whatever we are interested in -- five different things inside of five minutes. Syria is interested in maintaining its legitimacy, and part of that comes through its public stance against the legitimacy of Israel. You have basically this mixing of interests which does not homogenize. It takes a lot of stirring like a salad dressing. Syria's government was attempting to simplify its own political situation when the USA interfered several years ago. It was having an ethnic cleansing. I'm not sure who was being cleansed or for what reasons, but there was a lot of killing involved. I'm pretty sure this scared a lot of its neighbors, such as Israel. A country that is willing to slaughter its own citizens is not going to give anyone confidence.
 

Stanyon

WWMRD?
I still don't understand why Israel cares about Syria and why USA troops should remain in Syria, according to Israel

On the CIA's own website they have declassified documents that show they were wanting to destabilize Syria as long as 25 years ago "by any means necessary" I posted the link here a few weeks ago, will try to find it.
 

Estro Felino

Believer in free will
Premium Member
On the CIA's own website they have declassified documents that show they were wanting to destabilize Syria as long as 25 years ago "by any means necessary" I posted the link here a few weeks ago, will try to find it.
Thank you. There is nothing else to add.
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
What Trump did in regards to the Kurds should be a warning to all our allies that Trump's commitments to our allies are not even worth the paper they're written on. Also, what that action did was to strengthen both Assad's and Putin's hands, and also the Iranians, which could spell some nasty stuff for Israel and others down the line.

This administration has clearly shown that any American presence and/or cooperation in the region cannot be counted on.
 

Stanyon

WWMRD?
What Trump did in regards to the Kurds should be a warning to all our allies that Trump's commitments to our allies are not even worth the paper they're written on. Also, what that action did was to strengthen both Assad's and Putin's hands, and also the Iranians, which could spell some nasty stuff for Israel and others down the line.

This administration has clearly shown that any American presence and/or cooperation in the region cannot be counted on.

The U.S. are the ones that helped start much of the turmoil through fomenting rebellions and militia groups, the ultimate goal was to hurt Iran it was just that Syria was just the preliminaries.how much Syrian blood is on U.S. hands? 25 years of fomenting militias and supporting rebels to undermine and destabilize, the U.S. policies in Syria and many places in the world are quite psychopathic if you really look at it.

Memes and facebook ads
 

Brickjectivity

Turned to Stone. Now I stretch daily.
Staff member
Premium Member
The U.S. are the ones that helped start much of the turmoil through fomenting rebellions and militia groups, the ultimate goal was to hurt Iran it was just that Syria was just the preliminaries.how much Syrian blood is on U.S. hands? 25 years of fomenting militias and supporting rebels to undermine and destabilize, the U.S. policies in Syria and many places in the world are quite psychopathic if you really look at it.

Memes and facebook ads
Maybe you saw that in a redacted document on the internet and maybe you just thought you did. If you can't find where you got it from then maybe you should be a little less insistent. We are involved, but so is Russia, so is Syria, so is Israel and so is the EU. You ask how much Syrian blood is on US hands. What about European hands? Shall we go back to where all of this truly starts and where all of this hate begins. We can't, because all we have at this point is a rumor based on a document you saw some time some where and a lot of convenient ignorance about other players. All of Syria's problems are laid at the feet of the USA. Did you know the EU has been pressing an embargo against Syria since 2011? 2019 - 2011 = 8 years of poverty. You forgot to mention it. Eight years of economic warfare against Syrian citizens, but how much blood we ask is on US hands? As if the EU is uninvolved. As if it has no strategic interests and never interferes with other countries. Light a brush fire and walk away why don't you.
 

sun rise

The world is on fire
Premium Member
There is a new opinion piece in the Atlantic titled The Coming Middle East Conflagration. Its author is Michael Oren and his credentials are more than impressive.

The picture Oren paints is more than a little disturbing, but I'm even more disturbed by what I sense as the articles subtext, i.e., by the underlying intend of the article, which does not surface until the article's last paragraph:



The message seems pretty clear: IMPEACHMENT IS BAD FOR ISRAEL.

If this is, indeed, the intended message (and I could be way off base here), I doubt that the decision to disseminate such a caution originated with Oren, and I would not be surprised to find Netanyahu among those pulling the strings.
Given that as a consequence to a terrible decision, Iran is formally reactivating nuclear sites, Israel is much more likely now to face a nuclear-armed Iran which has IRBMs that can reach Haifa etc.
 

Stanyon

WWMRD?
Maybe you saw that in a redacted document on the internet and maybe you just thought you did.

Yeah, must have been drunk or something

from the CIA's own website:

SYRIA: SCENARIOS OF DRAMATIC POLITICAL CHANGE

New Declassified CIA Memo Presents Blueprint for Syrian Regime Collapse | The Libertarian Institute

Funny thing though is it's nothing new

We are involved, but so is Russia, so is Syria, so is Israel and so is the EU. You ask how much Syrian blood is on US hands. What about European hands?

Whatabout? Let's deal with the U.S. first
I am concerned about the psychopathic policies the U.S. has been employing for years which has led us down the road to where we are today because I live here, it's not changing anytime soon. Let's look at all the regime changes and dictators the U.S. has supported over the decades that were eventually paid for with American blood and money. How many civilians have been tortured and killed over the years in far flung countries because of policies the U.S. has pushed or dictators we have helped install? How many conflicts have been started because of our policies? Do we even care about them or is it just the fact that we don't have to see it up close and personal that makes it all O.K.?
 

Wandering Monk

Well-Known Member
There is a new opinion piece in the Atlantic titled The Coming Middle East Conflagration. Its author is Michael Oren and his credentials are more than impressive.

The picture Oren paints is more than a little disturbing, but I'm even more disturbed by what I sense as the articles subtext, i.e., by the underlying intend of the article, which does not surface until the article's last paragraph:



The message seems pretty clear: IMPEACHMENT IS BAD FOR ISRAEL.

If this is, indeed, the intended message (and I could be way off base here), I doubt that the decision to disseminate such a caution originated with Oren, and I would not be surprised to find Netanyahu among those pulling the strings.

Nixon airlifted massive amounts of aid to Israel during the Yom Kippur war. Americans paid at the pump in the years following because the Arabs emargoed oil to the States.
 

columbus

yawn <ignore> yawn
Whatabout? Let's deal with the U.S. first
I am concerned about the psychopathic policies the U.S. has been employing for years which has led us down the road to where we are today because I live here, it's not changing anytime soon. Let's look at all the regime changes and dictators the U.S. has supported over the decades that were eventually paid for with American blood and money. How many civilians have been tortured and killed over the years in far flung countries because of policies the U.S. has pushed or dictators we have helped install? How many conflicts have been started because of our policies?
Exactly!
While there's plenty of appalling realpolitik going on around the globe, the USA is the only place I have any influence over. So I care a lot more about our behavior and policies than Russia or the EU.

Therefore, our many decades of destabilizing the Middle East matter more to me going forward.
Tom
 

David1967

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
On the CIA's own website they have declassified documents that show they were wanting to destabilize Syria as long as 25 years ago "by any means necessary" I posted the link here a few weeks ago, will try to find it.

We need to just stop. Destabilizing Iran (for example) sure didn't work out so good for us in the long run.
 

David1967

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
What Trump did in regards to the Kurds should be a warning to all our allies that Trump's commitments to our allies are not even worth the paper they're written on. Also, what that action did was to strengthen both Assad's and Putin's hands, and also the Iranians, which could spell some nasty stuff for Israel and others down the line.

This administration has clearly shown that any American presence and/or cooperation in the region cannot be counted on.

True, and it goes back further in other administrations as well. (think Vietnam for example) I do agree we need to stop fighting these endless wars, but we should have done something to ensure the safety of the Kurds who BTW have been with us for a long time.
 

columbus

yawn <ignore> yawn
Syria is the centerpiece of Moscow’s influence in the Middle East.
Rather like Israel is the centerpiece of ours.

And now that Trump has set US interests in Iran back decades, practically forcing them to ally with Russia, Putin has another major piece in the battle for dominance in the Gulf Oil Region. Given that Iraq is more strongly allied with Iran and hates the USA, add it up.
USA has Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the tiny oil monarchies like Kuwait. Russia has Iran, Syria, Iraq, and probably Yemen and Turkey and such. Who do you think will control the oil reserves in 10 years?
Tom
 

Brickjectivity

Turned to Stone. Now I stretch daily.
Staff member
Premium Member
So I have two questions considering these documents you mention: why the USA would have been interested in destabilizing Syria in 1986, and is it a solid plan or is it like the CIA plan on how to invade Canada? I see the plan was to dethrone president Assad based on some no doubt unfounded concerns that he was never going to allow anyone else to be elected after 1986. Oh, look. He didn't let anyone else. Oh and look Syria continued to support terrorism just as predicted. Man, that is us destabilizing Syria is it? Its not any sort of self defense against his agitations? We should have ignored him? Maybe so, or maybe we shouldn't have failed.
Yeah, must have been drunk or something

from the CIA's own website:

SYRIA: SCENARIOS OF DRAMATIC POLITICAL CHANGE

New Declassified CIA Memo Presents Blueprint for Syrian Regime Collapse | The Libertarian Institute

Funny thing though is it's nothing new



Whatabout? Let's deal with the U.S. first
I am concerned about the psychopathic policies the U.S. has been employing for years which has led us down the road to where we are today because I live here, it's not changing anytime soon. Let's look at all the regime changes and dictators the U.S. has supported over the decades that were eventually paid for with American blood and money. How many civilians have been tortured and killed over the years in far flung countries because of policies the U.S. has pushed or dictators we have helped install? How many conflicts have been started because of our policies? Do we even care about them or is it just the fact that we don't have to see it up close and personal that makes it all O.K.?
Israel, the country, has doubts about itself. This surprises many, because we grow up believing in our countries. In a conversation about Israel this discussion is very relevant. Israel is named after a roving, homeless group of people. Its famous ancestor is Abraham, a man who leaves the cities to live in tents as an outcast. Its ironic that it is defended by jet planes and has stationary borders. Its ironic because it claims to be a Jewish homeland, and their philosophy teaches that countries defended by weapons are doomed by those weapons. (I am not a professor of Jewish philosophy, but you can easily check what I am saying.)
Funny thing though is it's nothing new
The USA has existed for over 200 years, and therefore it has done evil. It is a country, and it must have done evil. As a believer in my country I am shocked about this. The countries make excuses for outrageous behavior (such as interfering with the succession of a monarch like Assad). They engage in espionage and interfere with each other. They go to war. The cycle starts over. This is written in the biblical canon as well as History. A country's own weapons seal its doom. According to this the USA will be nuked, someday, guaranteed; because we have nukes. (Notice Israel has never admitted to having any.) If any country has them then by some superstitions so will it be nuked, someday.

It remains to be seen if things will play out so terribly, but I am just pointing out one of the factors in this situation is that Israel has trouble believing in itself just as strongly as Americans have trouble believing that America is merely another country. We are opposite of Israel in this respect, and you must understand this to understand the Syria situation. Israel's politicians must strive to make a case that it should exist. Therefore its enemies strive to make the opposite case and argue continually against it. Syria and its allies do this, too.
I am concerned about the psychopathic policies the U.S. has been employing for years
Enter the US. We claim and believe that we can protect other countries. We also say we believe in world peace. We also have a huge swathe of people who believe a messiah will come out of the physical country of Israel. That messiah it is believed shall save the world and create world peace. Now things are really confusing. Israel doesn't believe in our messiah, however somehow our most important export to Israel is that we believe in it. Its a little surprising since Israelis aren't typically Christians and don't believe in the Christian messiah. More important than weapons or talk is this belief. Countries thrive on belief. They exist in it like it was a substrate. Somehow our belief in Israel helps it to believe in itself.

Syria says it believes Israel ought to be wiped out though; so that there can be world peace! Therefore in the interest of world peace, Syria continues lobbing bombs into Israel's territory as do its allies from other vectors around Israeli territory. (Can fiction even compete with this situation?) Israel, Syria's southern neighbor, becomes to the USA like a divinely peaceful snowball in a hellscape of man's making (or Satan's making to many people). Some believe the conflict between Israel and its neighbors is divine, not the mere struggling of countries which has gone on for thousands of years. I think its sadly very entertaining. It may be difficult for future generations to believe that any of this happened as recorded.
 

j1i

Smiling is charity without giving money
There is a new opinion piece in the Atlantic titled The Coming Middle East Conflagration. Its author is Michael Oren and his credentials are more than impressive.

The picture Oren paints is more than a little disturbing, but I'm even more disturbed by what I sense as the articles subtext, i.e., by the underlying intend of the article, which does not surface until the article's last paragraph:



The message seems pretty clear: IMPEACHMENT IS BAD FOR ISRAEL.

If this is, indeed, the intended message (and I could be way off base here), I doubt that the decision to disseminate such a caution originated with Oren, and I would not be surprised to find Netanyahu among those pulling the strings.


Like what man has a bank account on the planet
Likewise nations and people have accounts with God
You lose a lot of balances in wrongdoing that God does not like
Israel will be fine if it does good and establish justice
No creature can determine Israel's future
God determines who is punished and who disciplines or when he will avenge
Therefore, I believe that the secret of Israel's success, the future depends on its integrity and honesty
God sees and does not miss something even if it is inside your heart

Building settlements or carrying out colonial activities in Palestine is an internationally illegal act, even if America uses its veto power
However, God does not prevent him from a veto in the event of anger because of tricks and unfair acquisition
Only God delays and does not neglect
Be careful until God loves you and remain forever
I love you and your sincere brother j1i
 

Brickjectivity

Turned to Stone. Now I stretch daily.
Staff member
Premium Member
Like what man has a bank account on the planet
Likewise nations and people have accounts with God
You lose a lot of balances in wrongdoing that God does not like
Israel will be fine if it does good and establish justice
No creature can determine Israel's future
God determines who is punished and who disciplines or when he will avenge
Therefore, I believe that the secret of Israel's success, the future depends on its integrity and honesty
God sees and does not miss something even if it is inside your heart

Building settlements or carrying out colonial activities in Palestine is an internationally illegal act, even if America uses its veto power
However, God does not prevent him from a veto in the event of anger because of tricks and unfair acquisition
Only God delays and does not neglect
Be careful until God loves you and remain forever
I love you and your sincere brother j1i
Thanks for the finger-pointing. It always helps when you find fault with someone else without doing much research, completely change the subject just to criticize and when nobody can find out anything about you. If only people would criticize strangers more often! What a wonderful world this could be.
 
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